Monday, April 9, 2012

Windy City Systems: The Chicago Bulls

Chicago Bulls head coach Tom Thibodeau is a performance-enhancing coach. More than any other leader in the NBA right now, Thibs understands that if his players are to maximize their collective potential, each individual must contribute in two ways:

1.) By making the appropriate swing passes.

2.) By making the appropriate closeouts after the opposition's swing passes.
Thibodeau and Rose can both claim to be Chicago's Most Valuable Person.

These are the two most important components of any legitimate championship contender. Thibodeau baked principle two into Boston's defense back in 2008, and he baked it into Chicago's collective defensive brain last year. It seems he has finally gotten a chance to institute principle one into his team's DNA, and his team is reaping the benefits of this newfound lifeblood so much that they've somewhat shaken their unsustainable reliance on their old lifeblood- superstar point guard Derrick Rose.

Last year, Derrick Rose won the MVP by being the offensive system that Chicago used to win 62 games. He was my MVP last year. This season, Rose is averaging 22.8 points and a career-high eight assists per game while lowering his turnovers and upping his eFG percentage (efficiency from the field). He's arguably playing better than he did last year- when he actually plays.

After missing only one game last year, he's missed 22 this year; Chicago is 28-7 with him, 15-7 without him, so he's still valuable.

The major takeaway from this is how Chicago's offense has improved from last year despite missing their MVP- an offense-oriented superstar no less- for such a large percentage of games. And it all comes back to Thibodeau's installation of a more structured system that facilitates passing with or without an on-court facilitator.

Chicago was ranked 11th in offensive rating last year, their only team strength being offensive rebound rate (they were fourth in '11). This year, despite the absence of Rose and a dip in eFG percentage (in both the actual number as well as relative to the league for each year), the Bulls rank 4th in offensive rating. Lapping the field in offensive rebound rate is part of it- Chicago is nearly as far away from the second-ranked Utah Jazz as Utah is from the league average- but another major factor is a much lower turnover rate. The Bulls actually rank in the top 10 in turnover rate despite not having Rose on the court as much.

Joakim Noah is a very good high-post passer.
How is that possible? The quartet of Joakim Noah, Carlos Boozer, Taj Gibson and Omer Asik occupying teams on the offensive glass relieves pressure, and Chicago has better overall spacing this year thanks to Kyle Korver, C.J. Watson, Luol Deng and John Lucas collectively shooting above 40 percent from 3-point range.

Most importantly is that the Chicago players are moving the ball via the pass, and they're doing it without turning the ball over as much. They are 5th in the league in Assist Percentage (percent of field goals assisted) at 61.25 percent. Last year, with Rose creating for everybody, the Bulls ranked 9th at 60.06 percent. Players are moving the ball more, and the collective IQ of the team has improved. As a result, Chicago has been able to withstand the injuries to Rose enough to own the league's best record (43-14).

What does this mean for the Bulls in May and June? Last year against Miami, Chicago was beaten because they relied too heavily on Rose. However, the need for Rose's creative abilities isn't as dire now thanks to a strategic enhancement in offensive philosophy.

Thibs's version of the truest of all basketball team fundamentals- let's call it his "Windy City Systems"- will play come May.

Saturday, April 7, 2012

Old Reliable: Tim Duncan

Kevin Garnett isn't the only oldie with game.

Tim Duncan and KG ruled an era together, and while we were robbed of seeing the two face off with even supporting casts in an epic playoff series- thank you, Minnesota management- at least we get to see them age together, and gracefully at that.

Tim is one of the 10 greatest players in NBA history.
Duncan's Spurs have the second-best record in the tough Western Conference thanks in part to Tony Parker's MVP-contender season, league-best depth, and Duncan's ability to be a presence inside. Timmy is the second-leading scorer on the team at 15 points per game, and while he isn't the post scorer he once was, he has gradually shifted into a role that resembles present Garnett: a stretch big man. Duncan could always hit the occasional jumper to keep defenders honest- his bank shot is an all-time classic- but he's evolved into a center who is the recipient of his slashing wings setting him up for shots.

According to HoopData.com, TD is taking 4.4 shots per game in the 16-23 feet range and making them at a 45 percent clip, both personal bests since morphing into an offensive role player. This change affects San Antonio in two ways: it allows Duncan to be an offensive threat without S.A.'s wing players needing to throw risky post-entry passes, and it spreads the floor for Parker, Manu Ginobili, and Gary Neal. These effects have contributed to the Spurs' ability to take care of the ball (second-best in the NBA at Turnover Percentage) and make shots (best in the NBA at eFG Percentage).

On the other side of the ball, Duncan's presence is still felt. He can't control the paint or block shots like he used to, and his pick-n-roll defense has reached Shaq-levels, but he can defend big centers and boasts the second-best defensive rebound percentage in the league (28.9 percent). As a result, the Spurs are the best in the league at cleaning the defensive glass.

If the Spurs have any shot at coming out of the West- I think they're a clear underdog against a few teams- they'll need a Big Fundamental throwback. They'll need Duncan to contend with Andrew Bynum/Pau Gasol and Marc Gasol/Zach Randolph and make those frontcourts play both sides of the ball.

After 15 years of watching Timmy D, we probably don't have much time left with him. Post-All-Star break, he's giving us nearly 17 points, 10 rebounds, and a glimpse into the past every game. Enjoy it while it lasts.

Friday, April 6, 2012

Dwight Howard's Hilariously Awkward Folly

Move over LeBron James- Dwight Howard is the new king of bad PR.

Taste Test: Lex Luthor used Coca-Cola. He failed.
Orlando's center- the same guy who tugged on the heartstrings of Magic fans up to the March trade deadline- created a classic scene when he abruptly walked into an interview session with Stan Van Gundy after SVG said that his superstar was lobbying for his removal from the coaching position. Superman proceeded to hug his coach and ask if the rogue journalist who reported on Howard's sabotage plan was present.

He was all smiles and was as confident as Van Gundy- that is, until Van Gundy left him on stage. What followed was an awkward mix of "I don't know" baby faces and backtracking that should give Howard the confidence he needs to pursue a career in politics after he retires.

What did we learn?

  • Stan Van Gundy should do Pepsi commercials. Seriously, the man spoke so candidly with reporters, and when his tormenter entered the fray- a good four feet taller than Stan, by the way- he stood his ground with a nonchalant smile before setting Howard up for a media session that nearly put "The Decision" to shame.
  • Howard is a malcontent who needs new PR people. He probably needs better people around him period. Michael Jordan's former agent, David Falk, recently said in an interview with Sports Illustrated that in today's digital age, players don't need to go to big markets to be marketable. Apparently, Howard doesn't get that.
  • The Orlando Magic franchise continues to crash and burn. Say SVG is done: what good coaches are willing to work under management so weak that it caves to a superstar's every demand? What good coaches and free agents want to work under management that can't even keep situations like this in-house? It's quite sad, because Orlando has a strong fan base in a great city. And they have some good, hard-working players like Jameer Nelson and J.J. Redick, too.
At this point, Orlando fans are clamoring for simpler times, when an incredibly overpriced contract for Rashard Lewis, an ill-advised trade for Gilbert Arenas, and a multitude of other poor moves by the team's inept GM, Otis Smith, were the only problems that existed for the franchise.

Simpler times they were indeed.