Linsanity Beware

Jeremy Lin needs to fight the urge to return. Pride and a desire to compete are common traits in most successful athletes, but in this case, pride and desire need to be tempered in favor of reality and caution.

The NBA can't afford to lose both of these young fellas.

The New York Knicks are down 3-0 in their series with the Miami Heat and have struggled to defend LeBron James and Dwyane Wade. With the roll that duo is on, there is no way the Knicks can take four in a row. Giving up is out of the question, but giving up Jeremy Lin to the whim of the injury gods can't happen either. It can't happen.

Especially with the recent Derrick Rose ACL tear. Although it can't be proven in this particular case, there is a chance that Rose's non-contact injury last week was partially caused by Rose returning from injury too soon. With his leg muscles weakened, the ligament may have had too much stress on it when Rose pushed off the floor.

Lin doesn't have Rose's vertical explosion- the two players have different styles and strengths- but Lin's bread-and-butter is using his surprisingly quick first step to get past the primary defender and then using his crafty ball-handling and quick change of direction to spear through the help defense and into the paint. There's a lot of planting and pushing off involved. Lin has only played big-time minutes this season, so extra caution is sensible.

It'd break millions of basketball hearts to see two 23-year-old point guards hurt their legs in the same postseason. You know David Stern doesn't want the health of an integral global basketball figure jeopardized. Amare Stoudemire would probably break his foot kicking a fire hydrant in disgust following a Lin injury.

It's not worth Lin's future. Game four is not worth it, and this series is no longer worth it. Mike Woodson should focus on getting the ball to Carmelo Anthony in favorable scoring positions, not figuring out if or when Lin will return this season. Cede Miami the conference this year and get ready to take it from them next year with Lin at the offensive helm. Any other decision is insanity.

NBA Playoffs Tip-Off: Injuries, Comebacks, and Chest Bumps

The condensed 66-game season spoiled NBA fans by giving them daily games to watch and triple-headers to wait for. The only costs were the other 16 games and Derrick Rose's ACL.

It wasn't worth it.

D-Rose is out for the playoffs.

To what extent the shortened season contributed to Rose's injury can't be proved, but one can't help but connect it to the injuries suffered by Rose, Dwight Howard, and Knick rookie Iman Shumpert; Rose and Howard have been iron men throughout their respective careers. With any luck, these young players can take advantage of advancements in medicine and return with their explosive athleticism intact.

Here are some thoughts after the first weekend of NBA playoff action:

• The Miami Heat are making the NBA Finals. Chicago without Rose is like a declawed and toothless lion- it's still big, fast, and strong, but it lost its primary way of taking the game by the throat. The Knicks without Shumpert have no way to defend Dwyane Wade, which is fatal since they can't guard LeBron James either.

• The Clippers comeback was for the ages. Reggie Evans's defense on Zach Randolph should make any and every basketball purist smile, and Chris Paul's competitive nature never shined through more. Still, L.A. needs to make major adjustments to get Blake Griffin off, because Memphis shut him down. Randy Foye, Nick Young, and Mo Williams will need to step up if Caron Butler can't go full throttle after breaking his hand- Young especially since he has good size.

• If Andrew Bynum delivers the kind of defensive performance he did Sunday, the Lakers can win the title. It doesn't need to be 10 blocks per game; it needs to be consistently challenging shots in the paint. Denver's big men are three levels below Bynum and Pau Gasol.

• The Indiana Pacers are still going to win their series against Orlando, but their flaw was exposed in game one. They couldn't adequately take advantage of Howard's absence even with Roy Hibbert playing, and they couldn't consistently score against an Orlando defense that has struggled without their anchor. Indiana could have made a statement to the rest of the Eastern Conference in game one; instead, they put themselves in a hole against an inferior team.

• Rajon Rondo's suspension was warranted. He did trip, but he didn't even seem to care that he bumped the referee. If he didn't get suspended, the 2007 Phoenix Suns would roll in their graves for the letter of the NBA law not being enforced.

• Dirk Nowitzki is an unstoppable offensive player. His Mavericks, though, are vulnerable without Tyson Chandler, and they're facing a team that will take advantage of that vulnerability.

Stay tuned for more action, and hope that no more injuries occur!

Windy City Systems: The Chicago Bulls

Chicago Bulls head coach Tom Thibodeau is a performance-enhancing coach. More than any other leader in the NBA right now, Thibs understands that if his players are to maximize their collective potential, each individual must contribute in two ways:

1.) By making the appropriate swing passes.

2.) By making the appropriate closeouts after the opposition's swing passes.

Thibodeau and Rose can both claim to be Chicago's Most Valuable Person.

These are the two most important components of any legitimate championship contender. Thibodeau baked principle two into Boston's defense back in 2008, and he baked it into Chicago's collective defensive brain last year. It seems he has finally gotten a chance to institute principle one into his team's DNA, and his team is reaping the benefits of this newfound lifeblood so much that they've somewhat shaken their unsustainable reliance on their old lifeblood- superstar point guard Derrick Rose.

Last year, Derrick Rose won the MVP by being the offensive system that Chicago used to win 62 games. He was my MVP last year. This season, Rose is averaging 22.8 points and a career-high eight assists per game while lowering his turnovers and upping his eFG percentage (efficiency from the field). He's arguably playing better than he did last year- when he actually plays.

After missing only one game last year, he's missed 22 this year; Chicago is 28-7 with him, 15-7 without him, so he's still valuable.

The major takeaway from this is how Chicago's offense has improved from last year despite missing their MVP- an offense-oriented superstar no less- for such a large percentage of games. And it all comes back to Thibodeau's installation of a more structured system that facilitates passing with or without an on-court facilitator.

Chicago was ranked 11th in offensive rating last year, their only team strength being offensive rebound rate (they were fourth in '11). This year, despite the absence of Rose and a dip in eFG percentage (in both the actual number as well as relative to the league for each year), the Bulls rank 4th in offensive rating. Lapping the field in offensive rebound rate is part of it- Chicago is nearly as far away from the second-ranked Utah Jazz as Utah is from the league average- but another major factor is a much lower turnover rate. The Bulls actually rank in the top 10 in turnover rate despite not having Rose on the court as much.

Joakim Noah is a very good high-post passer.

How is that possible? The quartet of Joakim Noah, Carlos Boozer, Taj Gibson and Omer Asik occupying teams on the offensive glass relieves pressure, and Chicago has better overall spacing this year thanks to Kyle Korver, C.J. Watson, Luol Deng and John Lucas collectively shooting above 40 percent from 3-point range.

Most importantly is that the Chicago players are moving the ball via the pass, and they're doing it without turning the ball over as much. They are 5th in the league in Assist Percentage (percent of field goals assisted) at 61.25 percent. Last year, with Rose creating for everybody, the Bulls ranked 9th at 60.06 percent. Players are moving the ball more, and the collective IQ of the team has improved. As a result, Chicago has been able to withstand the injuries to Rose enough to own the league's best record (43-14).

What does this mean for the Bulls in May and June? Last year against Miami, Chicago was beaten because they relied too heavily on Rose. However, the need for Rose's creative abilities isn't as dire now thanks to a strategic enhancement in offensive philosophy.

Thibs's version of the truest of all basketball team fundamentals- let's call it his "Windy City Systems"- will play come May.

Top-10 MVP Candidates at the All-Star Break

With the league's premier ballers playing in this weekend's All-Star Game, it feels like a good time to begin thinking about MVP candidates.  While there is no clear-cut frontrunner, a few players have risen above the pack.

Derrick Rose was a deserving MVP last year.  

My definition of the MVP, which I thought about last year, is...

"An NBA MVP needs to have the perfect blend of being a great player, having a great supporting cast that allows the player to flourish by allowing him to carry the maximum possible weight for the team, have that supporting cast give enough help to maximize the results of his efforts (and have those results look good relative to the league's other teams), and not have a similarly talented base, or Constant, on his team.  It's incredibly difficult to win titles this way.  MVP winners usually aren't on title teams. It takes one hell of a blend to accomplish that dish."


So let's be clear: An MVP isn't necessarily the best player (LeBron James), the best story (Jeremy Lin), or the guy on the best team (James or Kevin Durant).


For now, my rankings are as follows:


1.)  Kevin Durant-  He's the Constant on the West's best.  OKC has the second-best offense in the league, which is based on a perimeter-oriented attack led by KD, Russell Westbrook, and James Harden.  The Bearded One and RW handle a lot of the playmaking duties, but without Durant's scoring, OKC's offense would be incredibly predictable, as they wouldn't be able to start an attack inside the 3-point line.  Durant is also the team's best defensive rebounder with a 20.6 rebound rate.    

2.)  LeBron James-  He is the best player in the league, and he's on the best team in the league.  The only reason why I can't put him above Durant right now is because he is flanked by an all-star backcourt player AND an all-star frontcourt player.  Dwyane Wade might not be having his best statistical season, but he's still proven to be an offensive anchor.  Wade's missed games do give me pause, however, as LBJ was incredibly valuable with Wade out.  It's very close between James and Durant.

3.)  Kobe Bryant-  He just keeps plugging away.  The Laker perimeter squad sans Bryant is arguably the worst perimeter corps in the league.  Bryant needs to carry such an offensive load, from bringing the ball up to spreading the floor to creating shots for himself/others to volume scoring.  Without him, Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol would never even see the ball (ironic, isn't it?).

4.)  Chris Paul-  CP3 is after the Mamba mainly because his team has such depth at the point guard position.  I mean they lost Paul's backup to injury, and they still have Mo Williams coming in to spell him.  Still, Paul is playing like the best PG in the league.

5.)  Dwight Howard-  Dwight is a weak candidate right now.  Aside from the turmoil he is partially responsible for in Orlando, it seems he has also regressed in the scoring department (less volume and less efficiency compared to last year) and on D.  Howard usually has the Magic in the top five on D, but Orlando is closer to the league average this year.

Parker and Westbrook are having monster seasons.

6.)  Tony Parker-  San Antonio is first in their division and boasts a stellar SRS rating of 5.01, good for sixth in the league.  Parker has catalyzed S.A.'s offense without backcourt mate Manu Ginobili, an impressive feat in my book.

7.)  Russell Westbrook-  In the past, Westbrook has been Rondo-lite in his ability to hurt his team's offense as much as he helped his team's offense.  But the alpha-athlete of the NBA has the Thunder rolling at a frenetic pace and is playing better than ever.  I wouldn't be surprised to see him climb in the rankings.  

8.)  Derrick Rose-  Barring additional injuries, the other alpha-athlete will likely leapfrog the two point guards in front of him.  He has missed some time this year, and his team has done all right without him.  Personally, I do still think that over the long haul, Chicago would be incredibly screwed without Rose since he probably has the greatest offensive load of any perimeter player except maybe Kobe Bryant and Tony Parker.

9.)  Dwyane Wade-  He lands at number nine simply because of injury, decreased minutes, and the fact that he plays with somebody who plays his role (perimeter offensive attacker/creator) better than he does.  Still, Wade is arguably the second-best player in the league, and he's on the best team in the NBA.

10.)  Dirk Nowitzki-  After a sluggish start, Dirk seems back on track.  Despite Dallas having a lot of depth, Dirk is still by far the only player on the team who can be called an anchor.  Despite Tyson Chandler's departure, Nowitzki has his team in a solid position out West.

On the outside:

Blake Griffin - He's arguably the best PF in the league.  Plus he did this.  

Jeremy Lin-  I love Lin, but he isn't on my list yet because he hasn't been playing major minutes for that long.

Mavs Reclaim Western Throne: A WCF Review

The Dallas Mavericks defeated the Oklahoma City Thunder 4-1 in the Western Conference Finals.  4-1.  Hmm, that's the ratio of Russell Westbrook's shot attempts to Kevin Durant's shot attempts, correct?  

Dallas finds itself back in the Finals for the first time since 2006, and as it awaits the winner of Chicago/Miami, I will hold off on previewing Miami vs. Dallas, Part II, simply out of respect for the hardworking, likable Bulls.  Instead, I'll talk about what happened out West.   

• Nick Collison is a championship role player, in the same mold as Shane Battier, Udonis Haslem, Landry Fields, James Posey and Derek Fisher.  Collison played tough man defense on some of the best power forwards in the league, Zach Randolph and Dirk Nowitzki.  OKC needs to find a way to keep him.

• OKC needs a new offensive dynamic between its two stars, Durant and Westbrook.  In the playoffs, Westbrook had a USG of 34.4 but only an offensive rating of 103.  Compare that to Kevin Wayne Durant's USG of 29 with an offensive rating of 119.  Putting USG and offensive rating together gives you an idea of how well a player can perform at a certain offensive role.  Putting the ball in Westbrook's hands gives you an idea of how uncertain he is at accomplishing his offensive role.

• How do you temper Westbrook's USG while giving Durant more offensive responsibility?  Either Westbrook becomes a better floor general, or Durant improves his handles to the point where he can consistently make the types of plays for teammates like he did in the first half of game four.  It's probably a combination of both.  If Durant is going to get to the level of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Kobe Bryant as far as offensive anchors go, he needs to be able to take control of the offense.

• Tyson Chandler is the all-important tight end who acts as a possession receiver- he doesn't make huge plays on offense, but he catches the ball and he's reliable at finishing plays with authority.  It comes in handy on third down.  He's perfect for the Maverick offense with his low volume, high efficiency play.  Brendan Haywood and Chandler are excellent co-defensive anchors next to Dirk Nowitzki.

•   Dirk is good.

Westbrook and league MVP Derrick Rose get compared because they're both young, ultra-athletic point guards who are a bit raw relative to Chris Paul, Deron Williams and Steve Nash.  The comparison is too simple, however, and relies on the possibility that they are the two best pure athletes at the position in NBA history.

Rose is on another level in my opinion. If you put Westbrook on Chicago, the Bulls would average 25 turnovers a game. Westbrook is not the floor general that Rose can be, which is exactly what Chicago needs. Chicago is such a flawed offensive team that they need Rose to be a volume scorer/creator AND floor general. Now, Rose isn't on CP3's or Nash's level as far as playmaking and decision making, but he's not incompetent like Westbrook is either.

Rose's USG in the playoffs is a league-high 34.9; his offensive rating is a respectable 109.  So despite them playing similar roles, Rose appears to be more effective at the role.  Never mind that Westbrook doesn't seem smart enough to understand that he shouldn't even be attempting to perform said role since he has a scoring champion on his team to help him.  Rose doesn't even have a James Harden to relieve ball-handling duties.

Westbrook needs to work on his game a lot this summer. Rose is closer to his ceiling than Westbrook is to his; I question whether Westbrook will ever get there though, as much as I like him. He may actually have as much or more potential than Rose.  Maybe not though- maybe Rose's combination of body control and side-winding explosion enable him to do things even Westbrook can't do, for all of his considerable athletic ability.

But I digress about the seemingly impossible athletic moves they can make...Rose is clearly superior to Westbrook right now.      

ECF Preview: Battle of the Flawed Teams

Derrick Rose will need to step against Miami's lengthy defense. 

The Miami Heat and the Chicago Bulls are beginning their Eastern Conference Finals series as I type this.  I'm just going to quickly describe why I believe the Miami Heat are going to be victorious.

Miami's defense is the key.  Chicago's offense is incredibly flawed, relying on one player to do more heavy lifting than any team in recent memory.  Derrick Rose was my MVP, and as I said before, that isn't necessarily a good thing for Chicago's team success.  It's incredibly difficult to win a title if your team is so flawed that you require one player to do so much in a certain area of the game, regardless of how great that player is.  The Heat defense is so quick to react and so long on the perimeter that I can't see Chicago's offense having any continuity, meaning the Bulls will not perform well when they eventually call on their sixth and seventh best players to make big plays.  Luol Deng is the next best wing player Chicago has, but he doesn't handle the ball, and LeBron James has been playing great defense this year.  Statistically, the Bulls are poor when it comes to taking care of the ball- mainly because they have no ball-handlers aside from the MVP- and that means trouble against James and Dwyane Wade.

The Bulls can expose a Heat flaw, however.  Miami's defense is at its best when it has slender bodies in the middle that can move quickly and cover space- when they have their small lineup in.  The only thing the Bulls do above average is offensive rebound with tough guys like Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah; each of them should be able to push Joel Anthony and Chris Bosh around and score off putbacks in the paint.  That's how Chicago is going to stay in this series offensively.

Defensively, Chicago's players arrange themselves in unison beautifully to block a player's movement.  It's beautiful and it should make things difficult for James, Wade and Chris Bosh.  Miami's offensive output is going to rely on the trust James and Wade have in their teammates.  James needs to trust that when he passes to James Jones, Jones will either take the open shot or pass the ball to Wade, who will be set to attack a scrambled defense that James just put into chaos with a drive off a pick-n-roll.  It doesn't seem like the Heat have had a problem with this thus far, which is why I think Miami's offense will be just fine.  They have the two best offensive players in the series; all they need to do is not waste that talent advantage.

I'm taking Miami in six games.  Chicago doesn't have the interior isolation scorers necessary to take advantage of the Heat's biggest flaw.  Miami has the speed on defense that will expose Chicago's biggest flaw of being too reliant on one creator.  

Black Skies for a Dark Horse

In my first round preview, I mentioned that the Orlando Magic were my dark horse pick to win the NBA title.  Since then, my dark horse has received a few black eyes at the hands of the Atlanta Hawks, a team I've needled since the start of my blog.  Atlanta has a game on the Magic and home court advantage right now despite 33.3 points and over 17 rebounds per game from Orlando's center, Dwight Howard.  Why was/is Orlando considered my dark horse pick, especially after they've struggled at the start of this year's playoffs?

Dwight Howard battles inside. 

Of all the contenders in the Eastern Conference, the Boston Celtics and the Miami Heat are the top dogs.  The two squads share elite top-end talent, in the form of a trio and a foursome that made up over half of this year's Eastern Conference All-Star team.  Seven players- zero centers.  Dwight Howard is the alpha center in the league, and he equipped himself with a dominant interior scoring game this year, making him an offensive mismatch, and possibly an offensive Constant, in the playoffs.

The Heat's center-by-committee act can easily be exposed against Orlando, especially since Miami lacks a defender capable of tracking Jameer Nelson around Howard's enormous screens.  Boston's version of Superman has kryptonite of the calf- they need to make an alternate, comedic version of Smallville where elderly Clark enters a nursing home and fights off a villainous, pimped-out great-grandson of Lex Luther who walks with a cane and has dentures made of kryptonite- and with Kendrick Perkins gone, Boston has some mighty question marks at the five spot.       

Even though the Chicago Bulls have home court throughout and my league MVP, Derrick Rose, they are far too flawed and inexperienced a team to make it very far in these playoffs.  Joakim Noah was pushed around by ancient Shaquille O'Neal last year; a spry Dwight Howard should tame the gator.  Howard also represents the biggest road block in the league for Rose as he slashes into the paint.  If Chicago is having trouble with Darren Collison-Tyler Hansbrough pick-n-rolls, what happens when they need to defend Dwight and Jameer?

The team should be able to take down Atlanta.  The Hawks don't have a trusty go-to player, and nothing about the team is dominant.  Orlando's peripheral perimeter players need to clear those clouds and let Superman bathe in some rays to let the dark horse flourish.  If the Magic can take three before the Hawks take two, they have a very real chance of making it to the NBA Finals, where anything can happen.           

My Pick for 2011 NBA MVP

The last three MVPs have gone to these two.

My butt is moving people and I'm sitting on the hot seat.  I'm boxing out the specter of the voters, positioning myself in their spot, and getting deep into this post.  Interior design is mine this time.  Call me the The Big Right Block Voter.

My 2011 NBA MVP is...going to be given at this post's conclusion, after I've figured out who it is.  Undecided is what I am at this point.  A decidedly victorious player may not ascend above the rest, but I'll try my best to unpack what an NBA MVP is and who is most deserving this year.  Choose the best answer.  I apologize to those losing electrolytes after flashing back to standardized testing.  Go drink Jordan's elixir.

What is, and isn't, an NBA MVP?  

An NBA MVP is the transcendental signifier of his particular team, the base upon which the concepts and principles of a successful team are presumed and carried out.  Being part of the equation for a team isn't enough to be MVP; the player needs to be the logic upon which the equation- the team's makeup itself- is based on.

It's kind of weird.  An NBA MVP needs to have the perfect blend of being a great player, having a great supporting cast that allows the player to flourish by allowing him to carry the maximum possible weight for the team, have that supporting cast give enough help to maximize the results of his efforts (and have those results look good relative to the league's other teams), and not have a similarly talented base, or constant, on his team.  It's incredibly difficult to win titles this way.  MVP winners usually aren't on title teams. It takes one hell of a blend to accomplish that dish.

The Most Valuable Player award is such a simple yet descriptive title for an achievement.  Beautiful language.  Refusing to put the word "best" into the title should make confusion regarding what the award represents dissipate.  Steve Nash may not have been a top five player in the league in 2005.  But he was more valuable to his team than anybody else was to theirs, which is why I had Nash as my MVP that season.

LeBron James has been the best player on the planet for three consecutive regular seasons, and a legitimate MVP candidate on his hilariously flawed 2009 and 2010 Cleveland teams.  This season, he's been slightly better than ever before in my opinion.  But he isn't really relevant in this year's MVP race.

LeBron's Irrelevance, and Why it's so Relevant to Talk About

James joined forces with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh last summer, ushering Miami into the South Beach Experiment era.  One of the hyped critiques of the move was how exactly James and Wade would fit with each other since they essentially fill the same role.  They are elite-level offensive anchors at the wing position who are solid defensive pieces.  Ignore for a minute the diminishing returns that this duo would suffer in theory.  What is the need for them on this Heat team?

It's reasonable to assume the team is better with both James and Wade acting as co-anchors of the offense.  When one isn't in the game or if one is having an off night, the team can rely on the other to counter deficiencies.  They've even been learning how to work together, using pick-n-roll plays and the like.  But what would the team look like without one of them?  Surely the team wouldn't rise to 58 victories on the back of high-end talent.  Bosh and Wade or Bosh and James aren't as good as James, Bosh and Wade (obviously).  But take one of those two off the team, and the Heat can still create a successful equation based on the Constant offensive anchor that is James or Wade, with Bosh as a dependable secondary option.  Add in the 3-point shooters and dedication to defense that head coach Erik Spoelstra could institute given the fact that Wade or James with Bosh would be doing the heavy lifting on offense, and you likely get a solid- flawed, but solid- 50 win team.  They'd be less compelling as a contender in the playoffs, but they'd still be pretty good.

The current construction of the Miami Heat is flawed, especially with their holes at center and point guard.  James and Wade and Bosh needed to produce a lot for this team this year, which is why they combined to have more win shares as a trio than any other trio in the league.  The Udonis Haslem and Mike Miller injuries make the job they did even more impressive.  But take Wade or James away and the team can still run using the same principles and operate at a decently high level in the regular season.  Spoelstra wouldn't need to rush to a radically different plan B.

That's why the best players in the league can't win this award in 2011.

Naming the Contenders

Dirk Nowitzki, Steve Nash, Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Derrick Rose, Dwight Howard, Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, San Antonio's Big Three, Amar'e Stoudemire, Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are suitable enough to be at least looked at.

I'm going to eliminate Westbrook, Williams, Stoudemire and Gasol first.  Westbrook isn't as important to the Thunder offense as Durant is.  Durant's super-efficient production of points, particularly coming off-ball, is incredible.  Westbrook, while electric, is prone to making bone-headed decisions and turns the ball over a lot despite not having to carry as much weight offensively as his teammate.  The team has other ball handlers, like Eric Maynor, James Harden, and to a lesser extent, Durant.  Obviously the team would suffer, but I think they'd suffer without Durant a lot more.  Westbrook's defense has regressed a bit, as he gambles way too often now.

Williams was traded mid-season and was injured at his new destination, so it's tough to gauge his value.  Amar'e started off strong, but a mid-season trade changed the dynamic of his team, and they ended up with a lesser record than I had hoped.  Gasol is on the huge frontline of the Lakers, and his normal replacement just won Sixth Man of the Year.  By now, I hope the logic of my choices is becoming clear enough that I don't need to explain why Pau Gasol isn't an MVP candidate.

Paul and Nash are similar.  Both led middling teams with inferior talent.  Both were incredibly valuable to their respective teams.  Neither had the help to get just enough positive results to be contenders here though.  Nash is probably in my top five for most valuable players in NBA history, but his under .500 team hurts him here.

Regarding Boston:  I can't seriously put a Celtic on here.  Rondo is the reason why the offense goes- and stops.  Nobody does enough heavy lifting to be included.  If I had to pick an MVP for that team though, it'd be Garnett.  With the injuries Boston suffered, if they didn't have KG, they'd have a horrific frontcourt.

The overrated Spurs are in a similar situation.  Tim Duncan would be my choice for that team's MVP because he makes the team respectable defensively with his shot-blocking and rebounding.  However, I think Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker's offense create the incredible offense that the Spurs displayed.  If you take one of those two away, I don't think the other players, including Duncan, could pick up the slack.  That would make the Spurs a lesser offensive team, and since the team isn't built to play strong defense anymore, I believe the effects of not having a Parker or a Ginobili would be significant.  Nobody's important enough.

This leaves Durant, Bryant, Nowitzki, Rose and Howard.

The Fab Five

And this time, their accomplishments will count!

Let's start with the Black Mamba.  Offensively, Kobe needs to shoulder an immense load initiating, scoring, handling the ball and making plays for others.  On his blog, ElGee notes that Kobe's offensive responsibility is gigantic, second to another remaining player, Derrick Rose.  Remember that fact.

  L.A. is a difficult team to gauge because they are an older team, a tired two-time champion that is known to coast at times during the regular season.  Observing them is a chore simply because you never know if and when they are operating at their highest level.  Are they badly equipped for the regular season?  Are they badly equipped for the regular season without Kobe?

Dr. MJ talked about Kobe's impact here, citing the fact that he doesn't lift his team as much as other superstars which at the very least indicates that he isn't as valuable to his particular team as they are to their respective teams.  Now, an argument against me using Doc's argument is that a player can't lift a talented team that high- a damning argument against Kobe if we're positing that Kobe's team is talented- except that there is a profound concentration of the team's top-end talent in the frontcourt.  Kobe's presence balances things out for L.A.- ironic if you've followed Kobe's career.

Kobe would be my MVP.  But...Derrick Rose has a similar problem with his team.  The difference is Rose doesn't even have that concentration of high-end talent at any position on his team- offensively anyway.  He also doesn't have anybody who can handle the ball.  At least L.A. has Lamar Odom and the point guards to bring the ball past half court.  Pau Gasol can create a bit in the half court.  Chicago's best ball-handler not named after a flower (as far as I know) is Earl Watson, who isn't a high-minutes player.

Two of the Fab Five. 

At least L.A. has the talent in the frontcourt and some ball handlers.  Sorry Kobe, but your team isn't flawed enough.

Nowitzki and Durant are similar.  The main value they bring is efficient off-ball perimeter scoring that essentially opens things up inside and outside for the peripheral players.  Nowitzki's team has more depth, while Durant has more players named Westbrook.  Dallas seemed to really struggle without Dirk this year, which would give Dirk the edge over KD.  However, if you take KD off his newly formed team, you'd lose any frontcourt scoring, or positive effects of frontcourt offense outside of Serge Ibaka's off-ball game, that exists.  Number-one option Westbrook is a bad fit with the interior based Ibaka-Kendrick Perkins frontcourt; he'd have been better with Jeff Green and Nenad Krstic.  After that trade, Durant is more valuable than ever.  His ability to spread the floor, allow Westbrook to do other things, and produce volume scoring from a non-backcourt position makes the offense work.

Still, I don't see either of those two forwards doing what Rose needs to do.  Think about it like this:  Rose essentially plays two positions for the Bulls.  He's the volume scoring threat and the floor-general point guard.  The run he's on has been compared to 2001 Allen Iverson's MVP run, but I reject that comparison.  Iverson wasn't the ball hog that season that people like to characterize him as- otherwise, how did Eric Snow and Aaron McKie manage 7.4 and 5.0 assists per game, respectively?  Philly could at least run some offense and get the ball up the floor.  Rose doesn't have anybody who averages over 2.8 assists per game on his team.  Rose plays two positions for the Bulls on offense- he's Allen Iverson, and he's Eric Snow.

That brings us to Dwight Howard.  Howard has improved by leaps and bounds this year, turning his mechanical offensive game into a confident-looking, fluidly effective source of points for his Orlando team.  The Magic had clearly regressed in the beginning of the year as Rashard Lewis and Vince Carter struggled.  Howard kept the team afloat.  The team traded those two, along with his backup, Marcin Gortat, for Gilbert Arenas, Jason Richardson, and Hedo Turkoglu.  Hedo and J-Rich have been solid, while Arenas has put up a disappointing 8 point per game on woeful percentages.  Howard got the team to 52 wins with his 22.9 points and 14.1 rebounds per game, along with DPOY-type defense.

Who rebounds for that team?  Orlando has the best defensive rebounding percentage in the league this season, a crucial part of their defense.  I happen to think Orlando's team defense, orchestrated by Stan Van Gundy, would be greater than the sum of its parts without Dwight.  But rebounding is part of defense, and you can only scheme so much for "I'm bigger than you."

Orlando would drop off offensively as well.  A big part of their offense is their eFG%, but without Howard's efficient post scoring, what happens to that stat?  I think Orlando sans Dwight Howard would be a less explosive version of last year's Golden State Warriors, with better defense.  That's not a very good team.  Solid, but not very good.  Kinda sucks actually.

Chicago?  Without Rose, the team's offense sputters.  They were a bit above average this year with Rose.  Without him, they'd turn the ball over even more than they did (they were pedestrian in terms of turnovers this year).  Their claim to offensive fame was offensive rebounding, but you need to get shots up to get offensive boards, and it helps to have a guy drawing attention 18 feet away from the basket.  Intuitively, their league-leading eFG% Against would go up since they'd be turning the ball over more often.  Their defense would suffer without their two-positions-in-one star, and that isn't even taking into account Rose's stellar defense this season.

Above average defense and nearly league worst offense.  Well, that likely results in a team better than Orlando without Howard, but that doesn't solve much considering Rose's team did win more games than Dwight's.

It's Rose's effects on offense as a double-duty star that are so great that it spills into the team's awesome defense vs. Howard's all-around effects on defensive possessions and scoring efficiency.  Different effects on different teams by different types of players.

At this point, both are viable candidates.  However, my choice for MVP would be Derrick Rose.  Such a concentrated flaw in a team is dangerous, as shown this year in the LeBron-less Cavaliers.  They went from over 60 wins to less than 20.  The balancing act necessary to maintain a respectable team would be enormous if Chicago's base player was taken away.  Howard's departure would obviously hurt, but Rose's departure puts Chicago in a black hole- we don't know where they'd land.

As I said, Howard as MVP is certainly reasonable.  I'm taking Rose strictly because of my belief that the concentration in Rose's effects on Chicago would hurt the Bulls to a greater degree if Rose weren't there.  They'd very much need to change what they are.  The team's principle logic and makeup would dissolve without- well, without its MVP- to a greater degree than Orlando without Howard.

I think my three seconds in the paint are up.... 

Tech-Tech, Parade!

This game was probably supposed to offer us something better.  It was supposed to spice up the MVP story and make the voters think twice about handing Derrick Rose the trophy.  Dwight Howard could have given voters a personal choice regarding not only what they value in basketball, but what they value in life.  Life, damn it.   

Do they prefer the two-way center who provides an interior presence on both ends of the court?  Do they value the perimeter player who can control the offense with the ball in his hands and make plays to close games out?  Do they look for the best player or the most valuable player?

Image Via http://hoopedia.nba.com

You can forget about me answering those questions or describing which type of player the voters should value more.  Why?  Because much like Jameer Nelson's shot to cap what could have been the most thought-provoking game of the year, the game simply did not matter.  Both Nelson's 3-pointer and the potential of the game brought a lot of initial excitement.  Ultimately, both excitations came to an anticlimactic turn, where they then veered out of control, spun out, and ended safely and boringly on the side of the road, waiting to get picked up by a very cordial tow-truck driver sent by AAA.  No crash or danger- just a long wait in the short time before the regular season is over to give Mr. Rose a well-deserved award.

It's not about Rose deserving or not deserving to win though.  Be reasonable people- of course he is a worthy candidate.  That's enough to give him credit as a winner. 

It's about the little things that can create an MVP winner in a given season.  It's also about how this season, Howard, because of who he is and what he is, didn't get the fairest of shakes.  Rose got what he needed this year.  Today's game was the perfect coronation of Rose becoming MVP.

I remember a few years ago when Kobe Bryant and Chris Paul were getting the major hype as legitimate MVP candidates.  Aside from Kobe never winning one before '08  despite him being a top-tier all-time talent, the major showcase that propelled Bryant past Paul in the race was the Lakers winning an important home game versus Paul's Hornets, with Bryant delivering a too-youthful-for-2008 Kobe-looking reverse two-handed dunk that put the crowd on its feet and the Hornets out of the nest.  Today's game would have been different because Howard's Magic don't really have a chance of catching Chicago in the standings, but wouldn't it have been something if Howard dropped 30 points and 20 rebounds on Chicago's vaunted defense and tough mother F’er brand of basketball and blocked Rose on one of his acrobatic drives into the lane?  We didn't get to see it.  Howard didn't get his chance to showcase what he brings to the table.  He got his 18th technical foul and was forced to sit this one out.  Rose makes all the plays, including the integral close-out on Nelson that preserved the win.  His challenges into the middle of Orlando's defense, like this showcase of MVP candidates today, were won by Rose- everything uncontested.  Howard's campaign stalled. 

It ended because players half his size are allowed to hack him every time down the court, and he hasn't learned that the referees don't know how to- will never know how to- equalize things properly for the smaller players against the bigger players.  Howard has to balance being aggressive with not being aggressive and being aggressive enough and not acting up and not talking to the referees but also being physical and being an enforcer in a new era where enforcers don't exist but "stay physical Dwight!" but don't react and let them hack and it all balances out- or else you get technical foul after technical foul.  Dwight has to make sense of the last, incoherent sentence I wrote.  It comes with being bigger than everybody else.            

The MVP award is a historical document.  Forty years from now, the 2011 MVP award is going to be a primary source for students of NBA history.  Today's game didn't cost Howard the trophy, didn't cost him a piece of history.  But it did negatively affect the people's showcase.  Little things like that affect who wins these awards every year.

Today, this game means that Rose's Bulls won their 60th game on the home court of most likely his closest rival for MVP- a rival who didn't even play in the game as Rose dropped 39 on his (literally) defenseless team.       

In 40 years, this game means nothing.  It could have though.  A true student of the game must keep in mind that it is the little things that lead up to the making-of-history moments.