Monday, May 30, 2011

Give the Kidd a Ring

Jason Kidd is one of the greatest players of his generation.  He was a triple-double machine, an all-time great defender, and the possessor of possibly the greatest court vision of any point guard in NBA history (Magic Johnson may have something to say about that though). 

Unable to win a championship in his prime despite being carried to two NBA Finals by Jason Collins, Kidd is trying to win a title alongside Dirk Nowitzki.  He’s the co-second best player on the team, along with Tyson Chandler and Jason Terry.  On a team that is built around Nowitzki’s top-end talent and the fit around him, Kidd’s job is to provide size and rebounding at an unorthodox position, defend intelligently, hit the open 3 and run the half court offense.  What would winning a ring do for his all-time standing in this role? 

It’d be the same as what a ring would have done for Scottie Pippen if the Portland Trailblazers hadn’t gotten game seven asphyxiation vs. the Lakers in 2000.  Kidd is the guy with a lot of Finals experience on a hungry team; he fills in where needed as a peripheral player, much like Scottie.  Portland and Dallas are much alike actually, except Dallas has a dominant go-to offensive anchor in Nowitzki, while Portland played hot potato in the clutch. 

What would the title do?  It would help illuminate that prime/peak Jason Kidd could have definitely been the clear-cut second best player on a title team.  I’ve personally always thought that, but a title for Kidd would validate my stance somewhat.  It would also obviously give him a championship as a legitimate contributor (read: not what Gary Payton did in 2006 with Miami) on his resume, which I personally use as a tiebreaker when figuring out where a player goes on an all-time list. 

Title or no title, Kidd is a championship player in my eyes.  But that title would certainly aid along the public’s perception of him in a generational sense.            

Friday, May 27, 2011

NBA Finals 2011: The More Things Change...

The Miami Heat vs. the Dallas Mavericks- round two.  It's five years later, and we're back to the exact match up.  It's five years later, but Miami and Dallas seem 20 years removed from where they were in 2006.  Has an NBA Finals ever had so many classic conflicts, parallels, and role reversals as this year's Finals?

The anti-climatic answer which will undoubtedly deflate the serious tone I was setting and bring levity to this opening is a simple "Yes, perhaps last year when L.A. faced Boston."  The storyline was that L.A. was out for revenge for 2008, this time armed with Ron Artest and Andrew Bynum to combat Boston's physicality.  It worked when L.A. destroyed Boston on the glass in game seven, earning them their redemption.  Boston finished the 2010 series without their brute center, Kendrick Perkins, just like L.A. with Bynum two years prior.
Round 2: "I want a good, clean fight." 

Still, this year's matchup compels the basketball lover's mind.  You saw it coming in the Conference Finals when both teams went up 3-1.  Your mind wondered forward and you started thinking about LeBron James vs. Dirk Nowitzki in a fourth quarter, salivating at the chance to watch somebody shut down Dirk or torch LeBron.  Then you started thinking that it couldn't happen because if it did, somebody loses.  The way both are performing, losing seems out of the question.  It's like when you compare John Wall's dougie against Skip Bayless' dougie.  OK, maybe not.

Anyway, here are some particulars and perpendiculars:        

  • The two teams combined to punch out the youngins who led Team USA 2010 to victory, Kevin Durant and Derrick Rose, in the Conference Finals.  Rose won MVP and Durant has won two scoring titles, yet the older guard taxed the rebels their dues before team success.
  • Both teams stomped on last year's NBA Finalists in the second round.  They also defeated the Blazers and Sixers, both of which have the letter "P" as the first letter of their respective cities (it's not the best I can do- I promise).
  •  Both James and Nowitzki saw a dip in their regular season raw numbers compared to previous years, yet might be playing better than ever.  Both have changed their games to combat perceived past weaknesses in their play:  Nowitzki's mid-post game allows him to dominate smaller defenders, and LeBron's mid-range game is now elite.
  • James and Nowitzki made the Finals in consecutive years.  They both had their legacies tarnished by embarrassing defeats, resulting in the last titles for the great bigs of the era, Duncan and Shaq (with help from Dwyane Wade of course).  Both are seeking vengeance against the NBA Finals itself.
  • It was possible last summer that Dirk could have joined the Heat, likely in place of Bosh.  Bosh has played well in these playoffs despite my T.V. heckling, but could you imagine if Dirk landed on this team instead of Bosh?

Where the individual players are in their career, and how they came together, is probably the most interesting subplot.  Again, 2006 comes into play.  In '06, Miami was in win-now mode, saturated with veterans and ring-chasers like Antoine Walker and Gary Payton and coached by legend Pat Riley.  This version's core is made up of younger players in their prime who came together, at the beckoning of Riley, to form a dynasty.  They are coached by a more modern tactician in Erik Spoelstra.

Dallas has a contrasting narrative.  They were young in '06, featuring a seemingly prime Dirk with Devin Harris, Josh Howard and prime Jason Terry as his unproven supporting cast.  The current incarnation has players that can tell a common theme- "I lost my chance before, and I'm hungrier than ever."  Shawn Marion  with Phoenix, Jason Kidd with New Jersey, Chandler with New Orleans in 2008, Peja Stojakovic with Sacramento and Terry and Nowitzki with Dallas have all had their hearts broken.

LeBron James and Dirk Nowitzki will meet in the NBA Finals.
 Let's get to some basketball.  I thought OKC would do a better job of contesting Dallas on the perimeter, but Dallas hurt them on the secondary break as OKC began to play lazy defense after they turned the ball over 86 times per game.  Miami has similar length and even more speed than OKC on the perimeter, and they are much better at defending in transition and on secondary breaks because they seemingly don't care about hitting the offensive glass. 

This will be the key to the series.  How Dirk is defended isn't what decides this series- LeBron might guard Dirk in spots, but that matchup is definitely going to get more hype as a deciding factor this week than it deserves.  Dirk will get his, but will the peripheral Mavericks get theirs when they need to put the ball on the floor after Miami closes out on them.  That's the key variable for Dallas.

Miami can go big on the perimeter, which means trouble for Dallas when Miami is on offense.  It's Dallas who is going to have trouble closing out on Miami's perimeter players.  J.J. Barea and Terry are too small to take on James/Wade/Mike Miller.  Kidd can decently defend when he has help behind him and can funnel, but what happens when he needs to close out on James or Wade and they get to have a step on the older Kidd?  What happens when Miami targets Nowitzki in the pick-n-roll like they did with Boozer?

Miami has a better chance of winning the series.  They have the top-end talent advantage, and after seeing how they closed out game four (that one play where Wade blocked and James dove...man) against Chicago, I'd say this team has the effort and chemistry to disrupt Dallas's primary variable- their peripheral perimeter players.

2011 is different from 2006:  Osama's been done taken care of, The Wire is gone and Louis C.K. thankfully has his own show.  Some things stay the same though.  Miami wins the title in six or seven.                  

Thursday, May 26, 2011

Mavs Reclaim Western Throne: A WCF Review

The Dallas Mavericks defeated the Oklahoma City Thunder 4-1 in the Western Conference Finals.  4-1.  Hmm, that's the ratio of Russell Westbrook's shot attempts to Kevin Durant's shot attempts, correct?  

Dallas finds itself back in the Finals for the first time since 2006, and as it awaits the winner of Chicago/Miami, I will hold off on previewing Miami vs. Dallas, Part II, simply out of respect for the hardworking, likable Bulls.  Instead, I'll talk about what happened out West.   

  • OKC needs a new offensive dynamic between its two stars, Durant and Westbrook.  In the playoffs, Westbrook had a USG of 34.4 but only an offensive rating of 103.  Compare that to Kevin Wayne Durant's USG of 29 with an offensive rating of 119.  Putting USG and offensive rating together gives you an idea of how well a player can perform at a certain offensive role.  Putting the ball in Westbrook's hands gives you an idea of how uncertain he is at accomplishing his offensive role.
  • How do you temper Westbrook's USG while giving Durant more offensive responsibility?  Either Westbrook becomes a better floor general, or Durant improves his handles to the point where he can consistently make the types of plays for teammates like he did in the first half of game four.  It's probably a combination of both.  If Durant is going to get to the level of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Kobe Bryant as far as offensive anchors go, he needs to be able to take control of the offense.
  • Tyson Chandler is the all-important tight end who acts as a possession receiver- he doesn't make huge plays on offense, but he catches the ball and he's reliable at finishing plays with authority.  It comes in handy on third down.  He's perfect for the Maverick offense with his low volume, high efficiency play.  Brendan Haywood and Chandler are excellent co-defensive anchors next to Dirk Nowitzki.
  •   Dirk is good.

Westbrook and league MVP Derrick Rose get compared because they're both young, ultra-athletic point guards who are a bit raw relative to Chris Paul, Deron Williams and Steve Nash.  The comparison is too simple, however, and relies on the possibility that they are the two best pure athletes at the position in NBA history.

Rose is on another level in my opinion. If you put Westbrook on Chicago, the Bulls would average 25 turnovers a game. Westbrook is not the floor general that Rose can be, which is exactly what Chicago needs. Chicago is such a flawed offensive team that they need Rose to be a volume scorer/creator AND floor general. Now, Rose isn't on CP3's or Nash's level as far as playmaking and decision making, but he's not incompetent like Westbrook is either.

Rose's USG in the playoffs is a league-high 34.9; his offensive rating is a respectable 109.  So despite them playing similar roles, Rose appears to be more effective at the role.  Never mind that Westbrook doesn't seem smart enough to understand that he shouldn't even be attempting to perform said role since he has a scoring champion on his team to help him.  Rose doesn't even have a James Harden to relieve ball-handling duties.

Westbrook needs to work on his game a lot this summer. Rose is closer to his ceiling than Westbrook is to his; I question whether Westbrook will ever get there though, as much as I like him. He may actually have as much or more potential than Rose.  Maybe not though- maybe Rose's combination of body control and side-winding explosion enable him to do things even Westbrook can't do, for all of his considerable athletic ability.

But I digress about the seemingly impossible athletic moves they can make...Rose is clearly superior to Westbrook right now.