NBA Finals Preview: Heat vs. Thunder

Miami is here for two reasons: Chris Bosh's return and LeBron James' renewed openness to failure.

Both recovered in different ways. Bosh rested and conditioned himself during his injury layoff where he's now feeling more springy than the lockout-beaten players he shares the court with. James breathed in the quietness of playing for himself, accepting who he needs to be on the Miami Heat.

LeBron James and Kevin Durant will see a lot of each other in the Finals.

We know the Thunder. They pressure teams by having the unprecedented offensive trio of Russell Westbrook, James Harden, and Kevin Durant bleed matchup advantages. Their defensive malleability forced the Spurs to post up Tim Duncan, which is no longer a strength. It forced the Lakers to be more Kobe Bryant-centric than ever, effectively shutting down Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol.

Even with the hyper Westbrook and the youthful Serge Ibaka, OKC is more of a constant than Miami has been over the past two years. Bosh's energy status and James' focus are the two biggest variables heading into the NBA Finals.

The Heat may be the only team capable of matching up with OKC's offensive talent. James, arguably the league's best perimeter defender, can match up with Durant, while Dwyane Wade and Mario Chalmers have the size and length to defend Westbrook and Harden. They also have Bosh's strong pick-n-roll defense behind them. When Harden makes those long strides to the rim, he'll have a much harder time gliding by Bosh as opposed to the relatively slower-footed Gasol and Duncan.

Still, OKC's firepower comes from all angles. When their trio diverts defensive attention away from role players like Ibaka, Derek Fisher, and Thabo Sefolosha, those guys hit shots. Fisher and Sefolosha are shooting 38.2 percent and 36.8 percent from 3, respectively, and Ibaka is shooting 55.6 percent from the field while shooting many assisted mid-range jump shots.

Miami's offense vs. OKC's defense will decide this series. When it becomes Ibaka/Durant/Harden/Sefolosha/Westbrook vs. Bosh/James/Battier/Wade/Chalmers, Bosh needs to score efficiently from 18 feet. If he does, James will have room to maneuver with or without the ball, leading to ball movement and swing passes. A stagnant Miami offense will get swallowed up by OKC's length and team speed.

Bosh's play and James' focus will determine who wins that offense/defense interaction. Based on Bosh's 19 points on stellar jump shooting in game 7 against Boston, it appears he is ready for the challenge.

That leaves us with James. If James plays aggressive basketball- without fury, fear, angst, worry, or the pursuit of always making the "right" play- and allows himself the possibility of failure, the Miami Heat are the favorites. He played conservatively in last year's Finals which limited the effects- positive and negative- he could have on his team. But that isn't what the Miami Heat need.

Based on his play against Boston, LeBron James understands.

Pick: Heat in 6

Russell Westbrook and Creating "Luck"

Russell Westbrook is an apex predator. Give him a straight line to the basket- even the slightest slit through a defense- and the alpha athlete of the NBA will lock in on the rim and ferociously attack, concluding his assault with a thunderous dunk.

That's the instinctual, aggressive side of Westbrook.

With RW, it's not just the dunks anymore.

But there's another, more controlled side of the point guard's game that has been in the works for quite a while now. Slowly but surely, Westbrook has been developing habits such as recognizing when his teammates are in rhythm, taking a patient approach to getting good shots for himself, and setting up the offense without the intent of gaining a stat (field goal, free throws, or an assist) for himself to conclude the possession. He took a statistical quantum leap in his third year but is taking an incremental yet no less important leap this year as far as providing what his team needs.

Kevin Durant is the Thunder's Constant, the consistent provider of efficiently scored points. Although Durant himself has made leaps as far as creating shots for himself, he isn't a primary creator. As a perimeter scorer, he belongs in the score-in-the-flow category, though again, he has made improvements.

Westbrook can be the wild card, the push-us-over-the-top creator of variance and "luck," the player whom the opposition plans for yet realizes that surrendering an explosive offensive performance isn't always in their control. He's always had a game tailor-made for being that type of player. It's an advantage of behaving with a "survival of the fittest, only the strong dunk" attitude.

But as great as Westbrook was last year, he had the propensity to shoot his team out of games as much as he had the ability to shoot them over the top. That's not creating "luck." That's gambling, and when a team already has a player as consistent as Durant, it's unnecessary.

What the Thunder need is what this calmer Westbrook has become. RW has upped his scoring volume this season from 21.9 to 24.2 points per game, all the while scoring more efficiently than ever before (55.2 percent True Shooting). His assists have dropped from 8.2 to 5.5 per game, but that's more a function of issuing the ball to James Harden and Durant to accommodate their respective ball-handling and improved iso scoring capabilities. He has improved his ability to play off of others.

And that's why defenses are having a much harder time corralling him. Westbrook is shooting at career-high percentages from 3-9 feet, 10-15 feet, and 16-23 feet, all the while shooting the same or a greater volume from those spots on the floor compared to 2011. Perhaps most importantly, he's developed a potent 3-point shot. He's assisted on 45.8 percent of his 3's, but he has also more than doubled his volume of total attempts, meaning he's even more of a threat off the dribble from deep.

Oklahoma City is ranked first in the NBA in offensive rating this year, and Westbrook's change in behavior is a contributing factor in the team's offensive improvement. He's using his creative ability and energy not to gamble but to take responsible risks at appropriate times in games. It's a much more useful approach, especially come playoff time when he can create that "luck," that variance when necessary, and push his team over the top.

Gauging L.A.'s Chances in May

It's been years since a writer had to clarify which L.A. team is the subject of an article with the above title. Unfortunately, the Clippers aren't laughable anymore, but they also aren't getting this article's attention. It's the Lakers. Even in a successful Clipper season- it's always the Lakers.

"What I'm saying is...I...want...shots."

The Lakers likely finalized their roster with deadline trades that netted them Ramon Sessions and future cap space in the form of Jordan Hill. The team's chances come playoff time will rest in the hands of Sessions, Andrew Bynum, Pau Gasol, and Kobe Bryant, as well as their double agents on competing contenders- Lamar Odom on Dallas and Derek Fisher on OKC (neither of whom are doing a good job of hiding that their missions are to cripple their current teams).

Even with the Sessions acquisition, L.A. is an old team in a condensed season, with a new coach who has broken away from the triangle offense in favor of a Kobe-centric offense that has seen the aging Mamba strike far too many times for his own good this season. How many more strikes does Kobe have left? The 40-point streaks are a testament to his skills and hard work, but I'm sure Laker fans would have been okay with surrendering a few regular season games for an invigorated Bryant late in the season.

Some of Bryant's stats have been trending downward: he's shooting below 42 percent since the start of February, and his assists have decreased since that point as well (5.4 to 4.1). Getting used to the presence of a point guard who can actually set Kobe and the others up is a point in L.A.'s favor, as hopefully, Kobe doesn't need to carry such a ball-handling/creating load for the team.

The Lakers are ranked 15th in offensive rating and are a horrendous shooting team (31.4 percent from 3-point range, 27th in the league), but they have efficient big men who will cause mismatches in the postseason. Bynum's career year- he's averaging 18.3 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 2 blocks per game with a true shooting percentage of 61.4- is more impressive when you think about the lack of spacing L.A. provides him. If he can continue to handle his fair share of the scoring load, L.A. can be dangerous. Outside of Dwight Howard, there probably isn't a better low-post scoring center in the league today. Sessions and Bryant need to deliver him the rock.

Defensively, the Lakers rank 11th in the league right now and do a surprisingly good job of defending the 3-point line (4th in percentage against) despite having older wing players. Will that defense carry over into the playoffs? Last year, Dallas destroyed L.A. with the 3-ball by moving the ball faster than L.A.'s older legs.

The Lakers have a sturdy defense based around the length of Bynum/Gasol, and they'll have a steady offense if they can properly incorporate Sessions into the mix. An inspired surprise performance by a role player- perhaps rookie Andrew Goudelock- would definitely help in May.

More than likely, if L.A. is going to make the NBA Finals, they'll have to get through the Thunder. Defending the Kevin Durant/Russell Westbrook/James Harden/James Harden's beard quartet appears a daunting task for an aging team, but Gasol/Bynum is a great counter, especially against a talented but underwhelming OKC frontcourt.

Top-10 MVP Candidates at the All-Star Break

With the league's premier ballers playing in this weekend's All-Star Game, it feels like a good time to begin thinking about MVP candidates.  While there is no clear-cut frontrunner, a few players have risen above the pack.

Derrick Rose was a deserving MVP last year.  

My definition of the MVP, which I thought about last year, is...

"An NBA MVP needs to have the perfect blend of being a great player, having a great supporting cast that allows the player to flourish by allowing him to carry the maximum possible weight for the team, have that supporting cast give enough help to maximize the results of his efforts (and have those results look good relative to the league's other teams), and not have a similarly talented base, or Constant, on his team.  It's incredibly difficult to win titles this way.  MVP winners usually aren't on title teams. It takes one hell of a blend to accomplish that dish."


So let's be clear: An MVP isn't necessarily the best player (LeBron James), the best story (Jeremy Lin), or the guy on the best team (James or Kevin Durant).


For now, my rankings are as follows:


1.)  Kevin Durant-  He's the Constant on the West's best.  OKC has the second-best offense in the league, which is based on a perimeter-oriented attack led by KD, Russell Westbrook, and James Harden.  The Bearded One and RW handle a lot of the playmaking duties, but without Durant's scoring, OKC's offense would be incredibly predictable, as they wouldn't be able to start an attack inside the 3-point line.  Durant is also the team's best defensive rebounder with a 20.6 rebound rate.    

2.)  LeBron James-  He is the best player in the league, and he's on the best team in the league.  The only reason why I can't put him above Durant right now is because he is flanked by an all-star backcourt player AND an all-star frontcourt player.  Dwyane Wade might not be having his best statistical season, but he's still proven to be an offensive anchor.  Wade's missed games do give me pause, however, as LBJ was incredibly valuable with Wade out.  It's very close between James and Durant.

3.)  Kobe Bryant-  He just keeps plugging away.  The Laker perimeter squad sans Bryant is arguably the worst perimeter corps in the league.  Bryant needs to carry such an offensive load, from bringing the ball up to spreading the floor to creating shots for himself/others to volume scoring.  Without him, Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol would never even see the ball (ironic, isn't it?).

4.)  Chris Paul-  CP3 is after the Mamba mainly because his team has such depth at the point guard position.  I mean they lost Paul's backup to injury, and they still have Mo Williams coming in to spell him.  Still, Paul is playing like the best PG in the league.

5.)  Dwight Howard-  Dwight is a weak candidate right now.  Aside from the turmoil he is partially responsible for in Orlando, it seems he has also regressed in the scoring department (less volume and less efficiency compared to last year) and on D.  Howard usually has the Magic in the top five on D, but Orlando is closer to the league average this year.

Parker and Westbrook are having monster seasons.

6.)  Tony Parker-  San Antonio is first in their division and boasts a stellar SRS rating of 5.01, good for sixth in the league.  Parker has catalyzed S.A.'s offense without backcourt mate Manu Ginobili, an impressive feat in my book.

7.)  Russell Westbrook-  In the past, Westbrook has been Rondo-lite in his ability to hurt his team's offense as much as he helped his team's offense.  But the alpha-athlete of the NBA has the Thunder rolling at a frenetic pace and is playing better than ever.  I wouldn't be surprised to see him climb in the rankings.  

8.)  Derrick Rose-  Barring additional injuries, the other alpha-athlete will likely leapfrog the two point guards in front of him.  He has missed some time this year, and his team has done all right without him.  Personally, I do still think that over the long haul, Chicago would be incredibly screwed without Rose since he probably has the greatest offensive load of any perimeter player except maybe Kobe Bryant and Tony Parker.

9.)  Dwyane Wade-  He lands at number nine simply because of injury, decreased minutes, and the fact that he plays with somebody who plays his role (perimeter offensive attacker/creator) better than he does.  Still, Wade is arguably the second-best player in the league, and he's on the best team in the NBA.

10.)  Dirk Nowitzki-  After a sluggish start, Dirk seems back on track.  Despite Dallas having a lot of depth, Dirk is still by far the only player on the team who can be called an anchor.  Despite Tyson Chandler's departure, Nowitzki has his team in a solid position out West.

On the outside:

Blake Griffin - He's arguably the best PF in the league.  Plus he did this.  

Jeremy Lin-  I love Lin, but he isn't on my list yet because he hasn't been playing major minutes for that long.

A Very Merry 2012 NBA Preview

Here are some of my picks and predictions for the upcoming 66-game NBA season.


NBA Champion:  Miami Heat
I don't see them being denied.  They got better in the offseason by obtaining Shane Battier, and they apparently will run a better offense predicated on player movement.  With a more balanced offense, a ball-swinging Battier, health, and an improved post-game from LeBron James, the offense should be fine, even without a PG (though Norris Cole has looked OK).  Defensively, they are still missing a big man to control the paint against big centers, but their ridiculous wing defense should allow them to overcome that.

Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and the Thunder will give them a great NBA Finals though.


Chicago and Dallas are the viable candidates to take out Miami or OKC this year.  The Los Angeles teams are my sleepers.

KD vs. CP3 will likely determine the MVP race this season.  

NBA MVP:  Chris Paul or Kevin Durant
Chicago has a target on their back now.  I see them having a mini-2009-Hornets season, which drags Rose's MVP shares down because the Bulls don't meet the same gaudy expectations that carried over from the slight overachievement of the season prior.  New York's stars are too even to win MVP.  Kobe and the Lakers are getting older, LeBron and D-Wade hurt each other, and Dwight Howard is a complete wild card for MVP.  There's a good chance he switches teams midseason; I highly doubt they'll give him a league MVP award.


That leaves Paul and Durant.  By picking up where he left off last season- on a new team that sucked last season, no less- Paul's narrative is set for the MVP race.  It won't matter that Blake Griffin is on the team- Paul is established.  The voters will see it as Steve Nash and Amar'e Stoudemire all over again.


Durant has a shot, as I see him running away with another scoring title and OKC being the best regular season team in the West.


My sleeper pick is LeBron James.


Defensive Player of the Year:  Dwight Howard
Dikembe Mutombo won this award in 2001 after switching teams.  This award is based more on ability, reputation, and defensive stats, as opposed to narratives and team success, which sort of govern MVP voting.


Sixth Man of the Year:  A Maverick
The best Maverick coming off the bench has the best chance.  That team is deep.
If James Harden is a sixth man- please, Scotty, let him start- then he's the favorite.


Tracy McGrady is my LULZ pick.


Most Improved Player:  John Wall
This had a Denver Nugget written all over it until they all left for other parts of the world.  I think Wall has an all-star worthy season this year.  Perhaps next year, he'll make a D-Rose leap.  This year's improvement will be good enough for the award.


Serge Ibaka and even James Harden have a shot at this as well.


Rookie of the Year:  Kyrie Irving
I'm taking Irving since he'll have control of his team, but Brandon Knight and Ricky Rubio are possibilities, too.  

Deron Williams is N.J.'s anchor.  

Sleeper teams:  Nets and Suns
I was a lot more comfortable with this Nets pick before Brook Lopez got injured, but Mehmet Okur softens the blow.  Deron Williams has become a hugely underrated player after being traded last season and being shrouded in darkness while Paul and Rose have gotten the positive point guard headlines for the past year.  Williams is a top-7ish player in the league, and the Nets aren't a terrible group.  I think Williams elevates his team to the playoffs.


Steve Nash finally has a Suns team that defends and fits.  But it's too late now.  Phoenix won't be a contender, but they've got a great chance at making the playoffs.  Nash guarantees a good offense, while Marcin Gortat and Grant Hill provide balance with strong defense.  Phoenix is a solid team.


Those are my picks.  Merry Christmas, and enjoy the NBA season!

Pigskin Comparison: LBJ vs. KD

Aaron Rodgers and Kevin Durant vs. Tom Brady and LeBron James- which duo would you take for one year?

That might be a legitimate question soon enough.  Bron Bron issued a challenge to KD over Twitter a few days ago after Durant swapped sneaks for cleats.  Considering the NBA is lacking in, ya know, existence, we can't watch the budding James/Durant rivalry grow in pro ball.  How would the two fair if they went to the NFL? 

The stars wouldn't be going head-to-head in football.

• An apt destination for Durant is Green Bay.  OKC needs to load itself with more history to roll with the Pack, but both play in small markets with seemingly fiercely loyal fan bases, and they're both engineered by astute front offices.  

• I can't see KD being anything other than a WR.  Durant is great working off-ball with Russell Westbrook controlling the rock; imagine KD freeing himself of a defender after Rodgers cleverly escapes multiple defensive ends and linebackers.  (Rodgers replaces Eric Maynor at backup PG?)

• James obviously is going to play for New England.  I know he loves Dallas, but the second-best player in the league doesn't play there, so New England it is.  His sense of acting for ironic purposes is lacking, so the Browns are out.  

• James would be a receiver as well.  Tight end is too physical; I don't think you want a 6'8 guy blocking 320 lbs. masters of leverage. 

So you've got two tall wide receivers for two of the best QBs around.  I think it works all right.  James would be better since he has experience playing football and would theoretically be the better blocker, leaper, and YAC accumulator, but KD's length and height could prove to be effective in red-zone situations, especially with Rodgers being able to throw from any angle with startling accuracy.

James the possession receiver, Durant the bigger end zone threat- sounds like a common fantasy football dilemma.  

[Full disclosure:  I have my doubts either would be able to stand up to the riggers of the National Football League over an extended period of time; it's not as simple as "they're pro athletes."  But it's the lockout, and imagination starts taking over...]       

    

Mavs Reclaim Western Throne: A WCF Review

The Dallas Mavericks defeated the Oklahoma City Thunder 4-1 in the Western Conference Finals.  4-1.  Hmm, that's the ratio of Russell Westbrook's shot attempts to Kevin Durant's shot attempts, correct?  

Dallas finds itself back in the Finals for the first time since 2006, and as it awaits the winner of Chicago/Miami, I will hold off on previewing Miami vs. Dallas, Part II, simply out of respect for the hardworking, likable Bulls.  Instead, I'll talk about what happened out West.   

• Nick Collison is a championship role player, in the same mold as Shane Battier, Udonis Haslem, Landry Fields, James Posey and Derek Fisher.  Collison played tough man defense on some of the best power forwards in the league, Zach Randolph and Dirk Nowitzki.  OKC needs to find a way to keep him.

• OKC needs a new offensive dynamic between its two stars, Durant and Westbrook.  In the playoffs, Westbrook had a USG of 34.4 but only an offensive rating of 103.  Compare that to Kevin Wayne Durant's USG of 29 with an offensive rating of 119.  Putting USG and offensive rating together gives you an idea of how well a player can perform at a certain offensive role.  Putting the ball in Westbrook's hands gives you an idea of how uncertain he is at accomplishing his offensive role.

• How do you temper Westbrook's USG while giving Durant more offensive responsibility?  Either Westbrook becomes a better floor general, or Durant improves his handles to the point where he can consistently make the types of plays for teammates like he did in the first half of game four.  It's probably a combination of both.  If Durant is going to get to the level of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Kobe Bryant as far as offensive anchors go, he needs to be able to take control of the offense.

• Tyson Chandler is the all-important tight end who acts as a possession receiver- he doesn't make huge plays on offense, but he catches the ball and he's reliable at finishing plays with authority.  It comes in handy on third down.  He's perfect for the Maverick offense with his low volume, high efficiency play.  Brendan Haywood and Chandler are excellent co-defensive anchors next to Dirk Nowitzki.

•   Dirk is good.

Westbrook and league MVP Derrick Rose get compared because they're both young, ultra-athletic point guards who are a bit raw relative to Chris Paul, Deron Williams and Steve Nash.  The comparison is too simple, however, and relies on the possibility that they are the two best pure athletes at the position in NBA history.

Rose is on another level in my opinion. If you put Westbrook on Chicago, the Bulls would average 25 turnovers a game. Westbrook is not the floor general that Rose can be, which is exactly what Chicago needs. Chicago is such a flawed offensive team that they need Rose to be a volume scorer/creator AND floor general. Now, Rose isn't on CP3's or Nash's level as far as playmaking and decision making, but he's not incompetent like Westbrook is either.

Rose's USG in the playoffs is a league-high 34.9; his offensive rating is a respectable 109.  So despite them playing similar roles, Rose appears to be more effective at the role.  Never mind that Westbrook doesn't seem smart enough to understand that he shouldn't even be attempting to perform said role since he has a scoring champion on his team to help him.  Rose doesn't even have a James Harden to relieve ball-handling duties.

Westbrook needs to work on his game a lot this summer. Rose is closer to his ceiling than Westbrook is to his; I question whether Westbrook will ever get there though, as much as I like him. He may actually have as much or more potential than Rose.  Maybe not though- maybe Rose's combination of body control and side-winding explosion enable him to do things even Westbrook can't do, for all of his considerable athletic ability.

But I digress about the seemingly impossible athletic moves they can make...Rose is clearly superior to Westbrook right now.      

My Pick for 2011 NBA MVP

The last three MVPs have gone to these two.

My butt is moving people and I'm sitting on the hot seat.  I'm boxing out the specter of the voters, positioning myself in their spot, and getting deep into this post.  Interior design is mine this time.  Call me the The Big Right Block Voter.

My 2011 NBA MVP is...going to be given at this post's conclusion, after I've figured out who it is.  Undecided is what I am at this point.  A decidedly victorious player may not ascend above the rest, but I'll try my best to unpack what an NBA MVP is and who is most deserving this year.  Choose the best answer.  I apologize to those losing electrolytes after flashing back to standardized testing.  Go drink Jordan's elixir.

What is, and isn't, an NBA MVP?  

An NBA MVP is the transcendental signifier of his particular team, the base upon which the concepts and principles of a successful team are presumed and carried out.  Being part of the equation for a team isn't enough to be MVP; the player needs to be the logic upon which the equation- the team's makeup itself- is based on.

It's kind of weird.  An NBA MVP needs to have the perfect blend of being a great player, having a great supporting cast that allows the player to flourish by allowing him to carry the maximum possible weight for the team, have that supporting cast give enough help to maximize the results of his efforts (and have those results look good relative to the league's other teams), and not have a similarly talented base, or constant, on his team.  It's incredibly difficult to win titles this way.  MVP winners usually aren't on title teams. It takes one hell of a blend to accomplish that dish.

The Most Valuable Player award is such a simple yet descriptive title for an achievement.  Beautiful language.  Refusing to put the word "best" into the title should make confusion regarding what the award represents dissipate.  Steve Nash may not have been a top five player in the league in 2005.  But he was more valuable to his team than anybody else was to theirs, which is why I had Nash as my MVP that season.

LeBron James has been the best player on the planet for three consecutive regular seasons, and a legitimate MVP candidate on his hilariously flawed 2009 and 2010 Cleveland teams.  This season, he's been slightly better than ever before in my opinion.  But he isn't really relevant in this year's MVP race.

LeBron's Irrelevance, and Why it's so Relevant to Talk About

James joined forces with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh last summer, ushering Miami into the South Beach Experiment era.  One of the hyped critiques of the move was how exactly James and Wade would fit with each other since they essentially fill the same role.  They are elite-level offensive anchors at the wing position who are solid defensive pieces.  Ignore for a minute the diminishing returns that this duo would suffer in theory.  What is the need for them on this Heat team?

It's reasonable to assume the team is better with both James and Wade acting as co-anchors of the offense.  When one isn't in the game or if one is having an off night, the team can rely on the other to counter deficiencies.  They've even been learning how to work together, using pick-n-roll plays and the like.  But what would the team look like without one of them?  Surely the team wouldn't rise to 58 victories on the back of high-end talent.  Bosh and Wade or Bosh and James aren't as good as James, Bosh and Wade (obviously).  But take one of those two off the team, and the Heat can still create a successful equation based on the Constant offensive anchor that is James or Wade, with Bosh as a dependable secondary option.  Add in the 3-point shooters and dedication to defense that head coach Erik Spoelstra could institute given the fact that Wade or James with Bosh would be doing the heavy lifting on offense, and you likely get a solid- flawed, but solid- 50 win team.  They'd be less compelling as a contender in the playoffs, but they'd still be pretty good.

The current construction of the Miami Heat is flawed, especially with their holes at center and point guard.  James and Wade and Bosh needed to produce a lot for this team this year, which is why they combined to have more win shares as a trio than any other trio in the league.  The Udonis Haslem and Mike Miller injuries make the job they did even more impressive.  But take Wade or James away and the team can still run using the same principles and operate at a decently high level in the regular season.  Spoelstra wouldn't need to rush to a radically different plan B.

That's why the best players in the league can't win this award in 2011.

Naming the Contenders

Dirk Nowitzki, Steve Nash, Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Derrick Rose, Dwight Howard, Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, San Antonio's Big Three, Amar'e Stoudemire, Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are suitable enough to be at least looked at.

I'm going to eliminate Westbrook, Williams, Stoudemire and Gasol first.  Westbrook isn't as important to the Thunder offense as Durant is.  Durant's super-efficient production of points, particularly coming off-ball, is incredible.  Westbrook, while electric, is prone to making bone-headed decisions and turns the ball over a lot despite not having to carry as much weight offensively as his teammate.  The team has other ball handlers, like Eric Maynor, James Harden, and to a lesser extent, Durant.  Obviously the team would suffer, but I think they'd suffer without Durant a lot more.  Westbrook's defense has regressed a bit, as he gambles way too often now.

Williams was traded mid-season and was injured at his new destination, so it's tough to gauge his value.  Amar'e started off strong, but a mid-season trade changed the dynamic of his team, and they ended up with a lesser record than I had hoped.  Gasol is on the huge frontline of the Lakers, and his normal replacement just won Sixth Man of the Year.  By now, I hope the logic of my choices is becoming clear enough that I don't need to explain why Pau Gasol isn't an MVP candidate.

Paul and Nash are similar.  Both led middling teams with inferior talent.  Both were incredibly valuable to their respective teams.  Neither had the help to get just enough positive results to be contenders here though.  Nash is probably in my top five for most valuable players in NBA history, but his under .500 team hurts him here.

Regarding Boston:  I can't seriously put a Celtic on here.  Rondo is the reason why the offense goes- and stops.  Nobody does enough heavy lifting to be included.  If I had to pick an MVP for that team though, it'd be Garnett.  With the injuries Boston suffered, if they didn't have KG, they'd have a horrific frontcourt.

The overrated Spurs are in a similar situation.  Tim Duncan would be my choice for that team's MVP because he makes the team respectable defensively with his shot-blocking and rebounding.  However, I think Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker's offense create the incredible offense that the Spurs displayed.  If you take one of those two away, I don't think the other players, including Duncan, could pick up the slack.  That would make the Spurs a lesser offensive team, and since the team isn't built to play strong defense anymore, I believe the effects of not having a Parker or a Ginobili would be significant.  Nobody's important enough.

This leaves Durant, Bryant, Nowitzki, Rose and Howard.

The Fab Five

And this time, their accomplishments will count!

Let's start with the Black Mamba.  Offensively, Kobe needs to shoulder an immense load initiating, scoring, handling the ball and making plays for others.  On his blog, ElGee notes that Kobe's offensive responsibility is gigantic, second to another remaining player, Derrick Rose.  Remember that fact.

  L.A. is a difficult team to gauge because they are an older team, a tired two-time champion that is known to coast at times during the regular season.  Observing them is a chore simply because you never know if and when they are operating at their highest level.  Are they badly equipped for the regular season?  Are they badly equipped for the regular season without Kobe?

Dr. MJ talked about Kobe's impact here, citing the fact that he doesn't lift his team as much as other superstars which at the very least indicates that he isn't as valuable to his particular team as they are to their respective teams.  Now, an argument against me using Doc's argument is that a player can't lift a talented team that high- a damning argument against Kobe if we're positing that Kobe's team is talented- except that there is a profound concentration of the team's top-end talent in the frontcourt.  Kobe's presence balances things out for L.A.- ironic if you've followed Kobe's career.

Kobe would be my MVP.  But...Derrick Rose has a similar problem with his team.  The difference is Rose doesn't even have that concentration of high-end talent at any position on his team- offensively anyway.  He also doesn't have anybody who can handle the ball.  At least L.A. has Lamar Odom and the point guards to bring the ball past half court.  Pau Gasol can create a bit in the half court.  Chicago's best ball-handler not named after a flower (as far as I know) is Earl Watson, who isn't a high-minutes player.

Two of the Fab Five. 

At least L.A. has the talent in the frontcourt and some ball handlers.  Sorry Kobe, but your team isn't flawed enough.

Nowitzki and Durant are similar.  The main value they bring is efficient off-ball perimeter scoring that essentially opens things up inside and outside for the peripheral players.  Nowitzki's team has more depth, while Durant has more players named Westbrook.  Dallas seemed to really struggle without Dirk this year, which would give Dirk the edge over KD.  However, if you take KD off his newly formed team, you'd lose any frontcourt scoring, or positive effects of frontcourt offense outside of Serge Ibaka's off-ball game, that exists.  Number-one option Westbrook is a bad fit with the interior based Ibaka-Kendrick Perkins frontcourt; he'd have been better with Jeff Green and Nenad Krstic.  After that trade, Durant is more valuable than ever.  His ability to spread the floor, allow Westbrook to do other things, and produce volume scoring from a non-backcourt position makes the offense work.

Still, I don't see either of those two forwards doing what Rose needs to do.  Think about it like this:  Rose essentially plays two positions for the Bulls.  He's the volume scoring threat and the floor-general point guard.  The run he's on has been compared to 2001 Allen Iverson's MVP run, but I reject that comparison.  Iverson wasn't the ball hog that season that people like to characterize him as- otherwise, how did Eric Snow and Aaron McKie manage 7.4 and 5.0 assists per game, respectively?  Philly could at least run some offense and get the ball up the floor.  Rose doesn't have anybody who averages over 2.8 assists per game on his team.  Rose plays two positions for the Bulls on offense- he's Allen Iverson, and he's Eric Snow.

That brings us to Dwight Howard.  Howard has improved by leaps and bounds this year, turning his mechanical offensive game into a confident-looking, fluidly effective source of points for his Orlando team.  The Magic had clearly regressed in the beginning of the year as Rashard Lewis and Vince Carter struggled.  Howard kept the team afloat.  The team traded those two, along with his backup, Marcin Gortat, for Gilbert Arenas, Jason Richardson, and Hedo Turkoglu.  Hedo and J-Rich have been solid, while Arenas has put up a disappointing 8 point per game on woeful percentages.  Howard got the team to 52 wins with his 22.9 points and 14.1 rebounds per game, along with DPOY-type defense.

Who rebounds for that team?  Orlando has the best defensive rebounding percentage in the league this season, a crucial part of their defense.  I happen to think Orlando's team defense, orchestrated by Stan Van Gundy, would be greater than the sum of its parts without Dwight.  But rebounding is part of defense, and you can only scheme so much for "I'm bigger than you."

Orlando would drop off offensively as well.  A big part of their offense is their eFG%, but without Howard's efficient post scoring, what happens to that stat?  I think Orlando sans Dwight Howard would be a less explosive version of last year's Golden State Warriors, with better defense.  That's not a very good team.  Solid, but not very good.  Kinda sucks actually.

Chicago?  Without Rose, the team's offense sputters.  They were a bit above average this year with Rose.  Without him, they'd turn the ball over even more than they did (they were pedestrian in terms of turnovers this year).  Their claim to offensive fame was offensive rebounding, but you need to get shots up to get offensive boards, and it helps to have a guy drawing attention 18 feet away from the basket.  Intuitively, their league-leading eFG% Against would go up since they'd be turning the ball over more often.  Their defense would suffer without their two-positions-in-one star, and that isn't even taking into account Rose's stellar defense this season.

Above average defense and nearly league worst offense.  Well, that likely results in a team better than Orlando without Howard, but that doesn't solve much considering Rose's team did win more games than Dwight's.

It's Rose's effects on offense as a double-duty star that are so great that it spills into the team's awesome defense vs. Howard's all-around effects on defensive possessions and scoring efficiency.  Different effects on different teams by different types of players.

At this point, both are viable candidates.  However, my choice for MVP would be Derrick Rose.  Such a concentrated flaw in a team is dangerous, as shown this year in the LeBron-less Cavaliers.  They went from over 60 wins to less than 20.  The balancing act necessary to maintain a respectable team would be enormous if Chicago's base player was taken away.  Howard's departure would obviously hurt, but Rose's departure puts Chicago in a black hole- we don't know where they'd land.

As I said, Howard as MVP is certainly reasonable.  I'm taking Rose strictly because of my belief that the concentration in Rose's effects on Chicago would hurt the Bulls to a greater degree if Rose weren't there.  They'd very much need to change what they are.  The team's principle logic and makeup would dissolve without- well, without its MVP- to a greater degree than Orlando without Howard.

I think my three seconds in the paint are up.... 

NBA Playoffs: First Round Preview, Sizable Questions, and Predictions

It's NBA playoff time, baby.  It’s the pro’s version of March Madness as teams get to scrutinize matchup issues and weaknesses of the opposition in a best-of-seven series. 

Image Via busybuzzblogging.com

Unfortunately, the 2011 playoffs will go on sans a couple of classic, shouldn't-need-to-miss features:  Tracy McGrady's team won't be kicked out of the first round, Steve Nash won't get to demonstrably prove that his style of offense works in the playoffs despite what his detractors say, and NBA audiences won't be listening to analysts comment about how great the Houston Rockets are doing without an injured Yao Ming.  If you can't live in a world where consumption of the information I just spoke of is available to you during most NBA telecasts, then stop reading this article and turn on the NHL playoffs.  If you can make it through and be satisfied with a half-historic/half-experimental playoffs, then follow me!  Don't feel forced though- hopefully my McGrady joke caught your comedic eye enough and you think they'll be more hilarity in the coming paragraphs…a risky proposition. 

Eastern Conference Preview
  In the Eastern Conference, everything is pretty straightforward.  All of the bottom-four teams are competitive squads, but none of them will make the top-four quaver.  Despite what happened in the regular season (ATL taking three out of four), Orlando owns Atlanta to a greater extent than Matthew Mcconaughey owned his lead role in The Lincoln Lawyer (Seriously, watch that movie.  Excellent performance my Matty Mac).  Joe Johnson may be a very rich man, but the constant flow of dollars and sense into his bank account isn't proportional to the offensive consistency and sense that he provides the team he's supposed to lead.  This is the series I see ending in a sweep.  Dwight Howard's prudent concern should be limiting his technical fouls and using his anger at getting hit across the face to run harder, make moves faster, and play defense better than ever.  He's by far the best player in this series, but he's got to remain disciplined. 

A very wise professor (Not making this up and not saying he's wise to play up my narrative regarding a basketball player whom I don't know personally) recently told me that if a person wants real freedom, they need to have discipline.  Howard's ability to control his emotions, even if he needs to use self-deception - pretending that literally every time a call goes against him, it physically boosts his energy- will be the key to not only Howard's success, but Orlando's success.  Orlando is my dark horse pick to win the NBA championship.  But it starts with Howard not picking up technicals in the first round of the playoffs against an easy opponent.  Normally, this series wouldn’t matter.  I think it matters mentally for Orlando, and Dwight in particular.  They’ll obviously win, but it’s the mental aspect that the Magic must capture. 

Mr. MVP Derrick Rose is going to lead his team past Indiana in five games.  Indy is a solid team, but they will simply be overmatched here.  Luol Deng should limit Danny Granger, and Roy Hibbert has neither the game nor the experience to play well against Chicago's tough interior defense.  Darren Collison will have a hard time driving into Chicago Head Coach Tom Thibodeau's playoff defense, a defense which-  when Thibs was in Boston- looked to suffocate perimeter-oriented creators by keying on them and denying them their most effective spots.    

Boston versus New York looks good better on paper.  And I think it will be a good, entertaining series.  The Knicks can legitimately call this a small, nascent rivalry now, regardless of what Paul Pierce thinks.  In professional wrestling (the one with the metamorphic stone who asks people if they can detect the odor of his cooking, the one that Boston's Shaquille O'Neal appeared on in the past...the one you used to watch!  Yeah, admit it!), a rivalry is born when two wrestlers start a feud and produce an emotional reaction in the audience, good or bad.  Knicks against Celtics isn't Yankees against Red Sox yet- that'll only happen when Rajon Rondo throws Walt "Clyde" Frazier to the baseline of MSG during a brawl- but it has some potential.

Both teams have high-end talent, but Boston is the team with an identity and a build.  New York is just figuring it out, and although Amar'e, Melo and Chauncey are an excellent offensive trio, the Knicks will have a hard time slowing down Boston, which shot a league-best 48.6 percent from the field this year.  Now, Boston was below average offensively in terms of offensive rating, which can be attributed to poor offensive rebounds and turnovers (Boston was terrible in these two categories).  However, New York is less than outstanding when it comes to boxing out and defensive rebounding, and the Knicks aren't exactly a bunch of ballhawks out there.  Boston should be fine offensively, and since defense is their team constant, they'll beat New York.

Can Iggy slow Lebron enough?

The South Beach Experiment starts as well.  Philly actually matches up pretty well against Miami, as Andre Iguodala is arguably the best perimeter defender in the NBA.  Having Iggy on Lebron or Wade will slow Miami's offense down.  Elton Brand matches up well against Chris Bosh, who isn't exactly Stone Cold Steve Austin when it comes to being physical.  (Would you look at that?  My memories of wrestling are infiltrating my post.  Maybe after the playoff games are done for the day, a little Wrestlemania XXI via YouTube is in order.)

Still, Miami's defense wins out as Philly doesn't have the offense capable of exposing Miami's weaknesses.  I expect this to go to six games as Miami attempts to find its playoff self while fending off a tough foe coached by the meritorious Doug Collins.  This series is analogous to Boston's 2008 first-round matchup against Atlanta.  Not saying Miami finds itself enough to run through the league to a title, but you get the idea.

Western Conference Preview

Phil, Kobe, and Fisher are looking for their second three-peat together.  They will be tested more this year than either of the previous two years, as the top of the West is stronger than before.  However, they won't need to flip their usual lazy switch just yet.  The Hornets are a solid team with a point guard who is arguably better than the point guard about to win MVP.  The Lakers are terrible at defending point guards, so Paul will get his numbers, but with David West injured, I don't see how New Orleans summons enough firepower to take the Lakers down.  L.A. should rest center Andrew Bynum by using him sparingly and letting the bone bruise in his knee heal up.  They haven't had a healthy Bynum in either of their playoff runs the past two years, yet they've won nonetheless.  That won't happen this year though.  They need a healthy Bynum.  Not for this series, but for future ones.

Perkins gives the Thunder some power.

Oklahoma City is taking on Denver.  This is similar to the South Beach-meets-Liberty Bell series.  Denver's chemistry and a few favorable matchups will make this one of the most exciting series in the first round, and the Nuggets will give the superior talent of the Thunder a rumble they will take with them in future exploits.  With their genius mid-season trade to acquire center Kendrick Perkins, the Thunder have the capability of playing dominant playoff defense.  They have the chemistry and the personnel to do it, while Denver does not.  Kevin Durant was stopped offensively by Ron Artest and L.A.'s supreme length in his first shot at the playoffs, but now he has experience and the luxury of not facing Ron-Ron con defensive Megatron.

In theory, Dallas should dominate Portland.  The Blazers don't have a quick point guard capable of penetrating at will versus the Dallas D, Lamarcus Aldridge is facing a strong interior defense led by Tyson Chandler, and Brandon Roy isn't really Brandon Roy right now.  And yet...I believe this series will be amazing.  Portland, forged out of the Gerald Wallace trade and Aldridge's inspired play after becoming a first-option, is not a team where dissecting matchups makes a whole ton of sense.  I suspect Aldridge scores a ton despite Dallas defending him properly.  All Portland needs is one or two hot nights from one of their peripheral players to win games against Dallas.  I guess I'll take Dallas overall because I feel they are the third best team in the conference after the Lakers and Thunder, but man......I feel like we're all missing something as this series begins.  We need to watch this one closely.

San Antonio is going to lose in their first round series, ending many myths about the Spurs.

Myth 1:  Tim Duncan can still elevate his post-season play.

No, no he cannot.  He hasn't since 2007, and he hasn't consistently been able to on-call since 2006.  Tim Duncan is no longer a playoff offensive constant, and he is only a true co-anchor on defense.  Unfortunately, San Antonio has nobody in their frontcourt backing him up defensively, and their wings aren't great either.  The Spurs cannot expect Tim Duncan to carry them.            

Myth 2:  The Spurs will still be able to play enough defense to win now that they have a strong offense. 

Related to myth one.  Where is the anchor?  San Antonio didn't show signs of playing consistently excellent defense in the regular season, and this particular team hasn't shown an ability to turn a switch on that side of the floor.  There are a lot of new faces since the last time the Spurs relied on dominant defense to get far in April and May. 

Can Duncan still elevate his game?

Myth 3:  Playing the stars at decreased minutes was only to preserve them, and the egalitarian nature of the team's scoring distribution is not a weakness.           

The team has no true offensive constant either.  This is especially true if Ginobili is not playing at his best as a result of the elbow injury he suffered at the end of the season.  If San Antonio is going to be carried by their offense this year in the playoffs, then it won't go far, because their offense won't look like it did in the regular season.  You need to be able to bank on somebody's offense this time of the year, and the Spurs can't.

I'm calling it.  The Grizzlies will take down the Spurs.  Memphis has the ability to punish the Spurs on the offensive glass and make the Spurs walk the ball up, and they have an above average defense that could give a less-than 100 percent healthy Spurs offense trouble.



I'll be back with analysis of Shaq's importance to Boston going forward and of how well built the Thunder may be now with Perkins.  Enjoy the playoffs.  Make sure to watch Portland and Dallas.  And remember to come back and comment on how insane I was for taking Memphis to beat San Antonio- or on how astounding and ballsy a pick I made.