NBA Finals Preview: Heat vs. Thunder

Miami is here for two reasons: Chris Bosh's return and LeBron James' renewed openness to failure.

Both recovered in different ways. Bosh rested and conditioned himself during his injury layoff where he's now feeling more springy than the lockout-beaten players he shares the court with. James breathed in the quietness of playing for himself, accepting who he needs to be on the Miami Heat.

LeBron James and Kevin Durant will see a lot of each other in the Finals.

We know the Thunder. They pressure teams by having the unprecedented offensive trio of Russell Westbrook, James Harden, and Kevin Durant bleed matchup advantages. Their defensive malleability forced the Spurs to post up Tim Duncan, which is no longer a strength. It forced the Lakers to be more Kobe Bryant-centric than ever, effectively shutting down Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol.

Even with the hyper Westbrook and the youthful Serge Ibaka, OKC is more of a constant than Miami has been over the past two years. Bosh's energy status and James' focus are the two biggest variables heading into the NBA Finals.

The Heat may be the only team capable of matching up with OKC's offensive talent. James, arguably the league's best perimeter defender, can match up with Durant, while Dwyane Wade and Mario Chalmers have the size and length to defend Westbrook and Harden. They also have Bosh's strong pick-n-roll defense behind them. When Harden makes those long strides to the rim, he'll have a much harder time gliding by Bosh as opposed to the relatively slower-footed Gasol and Duncan.

Still, OKC's firepower comes from all angles. When their trio diverts defensive attention away from role players like Ibaka, Derek Fisher, and Thabo Sefolosha, those guys hit shots. Fisher and Sefolosha are shooting 38.2 percent and 36.8 percent from 3, respectively, and Ibaka is shooting 55.6 percent from the field while shooting many assisted mid-range jump shots.

Miami's offense vs. OKC's defense will decide this series. When it becomes Ibaka/Durant/Harden/Sefolosha/Westbrook vs. Bosh/James/Battier/Wade/Chalmers, Bosh needs to score efficiently from 18 feet. If he does, James will have room to maneuver with or without the ball, leading to ball movement and swing passes. A stagnant Miami offense will get swallowed up by OKC's length and team speed.

Bosh's play and James' focus will determine who wins that offense/defense interaction. Based on Bosh's 19 points on stellar jump shooting in game 7 against Boston, it appears he is ready for the challenge.

That leaves us with James. If James plays aggressive basketball- without fury, fear, angst, worry, or the pursuit of always making the "right" play- and allows himself the possibility of failure, the Miami Heat are the favorites. He played conservatively in last year's Finals which limited the effects- positive and negative- he could have on his team. But that isn't what the Miami Heat need.

Based on his play against Boston, LeBron James understands.

Pick: Heat in 6

LeBron James Gave Us A Throwback

LeBron James and Shaquille O'Neal are two of the most physically gifted individuals in NBA history. They are bigger and faster and stronger than everybody else in NBA history at their respective positions.

They make it look easy, even though it's not. James finished an Eastern Conference Finals where he averaged 33.6 points, 11 rebounds, and 3.9 assists while shooting 58.7 percent True Shooting against the best defense in the NBA. And he did that while banging with Kevin Garnett on switches, slowing down Paul Pierce in isolation, and helping on the unpredictable Rajon Rondo.

LeBron James played like a champion against the Celtics.

The series against Boston is reminiscent of another great seven-game Conference Finals from 10 years before: the Los Angeles Lakers vs. the Sacramento Kings. It was arguably Shaq's greatest moment.

Dealing with numerous minor injuries and with his team down 3-2 to Sacramento, Shaq delivered menacing dunks, an alpha attitude and- yeah, check this out- excellent free throw shooting. He told the team to give the ball to him and let him set the tone for game six, and he did just that. Overall, he averaged 38 points, 15 rebounds and 3 blocks per game while hitting 75 percent of his free throws in the two victories.

Return to 2012. Dealing with enormous pressure and with his team down 3-2 to Boston, James delivered confident dagger jump shots, an alpha attitude, and big-man rebounding. He set the tone with a legendary game six performance. Overall, he averaged 38 points, 13.5 rebounds, and 3.5 assists while shooting 59.5 percent from the field in the two victories.

They're both out-of-normal-NBA-court-dimensions stars, but dealing with adversity took more than being a physical specimen; it took brains and heart. James understood that to beat Boston, his team needed Shaq-like aggression from him. If he had failed, so be it, but at least he would have went down trying.

Shaq went on to win his third straight Finals MVP in 2002; perhaps LeBron wins his first this year. OKC is a powerful team, but a King-Mode LeBron- like a Superman-Mode Shaq- can overcome anything.

NBA Regular Season Awards for 2012

As the NBA playoffs approach, it is time to give out the 2012 regular season awards. The season provided some fantastic highlights, including a high-octane start by the Miami Heat, a riveting slam dunk contest, and the legendarily hilarious Charlotte Bobcats. Corey Maggette would have won the iMVP (ironic Most Valuable Player) award for shooting 37 percent and blocking one shot all season, but he did too much right by his team missing 32 games. Next time, Corey.

Here are NBA Wired's regular season award winners:

Most Valuable Player

LeBron James is seeking his third MVP award.

It was a three-way race between LeBron James, Kevin Durant, and Chris Paul. In the end, James takes it for being the best player in basketball and leading Miami to a 13-1 record when the team's other offensive anchor, Dwyane Wade, sits out. Wade also saw a decline in minutes played, meaning James had to do more work on both ends.

Kevin Durant's frontcourt scoring and defensive rebounding are incredibly valuable, but Durantula's right-hand man, an improved Russell Westbrook, was healthy all year. CP3 lifting L.A. after the team struggled without Chauncey Billups made Paul a legitimate contender. He's arguably the second-best player in the league after James.

LeBron James

Defensive Player of the Year

Dwight Howard can usually sleepwalk his way to this award. Howard's late-season injury combined with Orlando's slip to defensive mediocrity (and perhaps some voter fatigue as well; I don't claim to be immune) opens the door for other star defenders.

Tyson Chandler and Kevin Garnett are the favorites. Andre Iguodala and Luol Deng are also contenders, and their plus/minus stats- specifically RAPM (regularized adjusted plus/minus)- give them legitimacy. However, those stats paint a positive picture for Tyson and KG, too. Both centers- yes Garnet plays center now- are elite defensive rebounders and shot-changers who also defend their position well. Garnett slowed the likes of Kevin Love and Al Jefferson, while Chandler locked down Howard a few times.

Boston has the NBA's second-best defense thanks to KG, while New York has the fifth-best defense despite playing Amar'e Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony at the forward positions. Garnett may be the best per-minute defender in the league, but Chandler bridges the gap playing more minutes in more games. Tyson gets the edge based on playing with worse teammates, but KG is deserving as well.

Tyson Chandler

Sixth Man of the Year

James Harden

James Harden would be one of the top-25 starters in the league. He's one of the league's best pick-n-roll guards, able to make cross-court passes, drive to the rim to draw fouls, and shoot 3's off the dribble. His 66 percent True Shooting Percentage ranks second in the league, remarkable considering he's a perimeter player. His production was instrumental in OKC's dominant season, and his beard was instrumental in cushioning the destructive 'bow of World Peace.

James Harden

Rookie of the Year

Kyrie Irving helped the Cavs overachieve this year. He averaged 18.8 points and 5.5 assists per game on excellent percentages, and he showed a combination of poise, skill, and underrated athleticism that allowed him to get anywhere he wanted on the court.

Iman Shumpert and Ricky Rubio displayed great play and potential as rookies, too.

Kyrie Irving

Most Improved Player

Andrew Bynum and Greg Monroe

Jeremy Lin would have been a lock had it not been for his regular season-ending injury. Andrew Bynum, Nikola Pekovic, Greg Monroe, and Avery Bradley are solid choices: Bynum's knees stayed healthy, Bradley turned into a defensive star by season's end, Pekovic became a forcible presence inside, and Monroe matured as a lead player.

Bynum edges out Monroe based on his transition into a big minutes/big responsibility player on the Lakers following the Lamar Odom trade.

Andrew Bynum

Coach of the Year

Tom Thibodeau, Frank Vogel, Doug Collins, and Gregg Popovich are all deserving candidates. Thibodeau lost his star, Derrick Rose, for nearly half the season, yet Chicago played well and even improved on a few facets from last year. Collins was an early-season favorite, but Philly's play declined throughout the season.

Tom Thibodeau

South Beach Case Study: Miami Before the Stretch Run

Despite receiving less media attention this season, the Miami Heat get more and more intriguing from a historical perspective.  

Last year, I wrote a series of posts on the South Beach Case Study (SBCS), aka, the first-of-its-kind experiment that is the Miami Heat, led by LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh.  Never have three stars come together in the middle of their primes in hopes of winning a title.  Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, and Paul Pierce were grizzled vets with playoff scars.  Elgin Baylor, Jerry West, and Wilt Chamberlain were the same way nearly 40 years before Boston's trio connected.

Dwyane Wade and LeBron James.  

What, if any, transformation has Miami undergone since last season?   

Last year, Miami won 58 regular season games and led the league in SRS (6.58), then blasted through the Eastern Conference before falling to Dallas in the NBA Finals.  Their success was mainly tied to James, Wade and Bosh doing incredible amounts of heavy lifting on both ends of the floor.  Considering the team had no depth, no point guard or center, and injuries to their best peripheral players, Mike Miller and Udonis Haslem, the fact that the three amigos were able to lift Miami to rank third in offensive rating and fifth in defensive rating is a testament to their high-end talent.

Currently, Miami sits at 34-11 (Second in SRS at 8), which would be good for a 62-win pace in a traditional, non-screwed up regular season.  Rookie Norris Cole, an improved Mario Chalmers, veteran Shane Battier, and healthy Miller and Haslem have contributed to the improvement, as has a more open offense that isn't predicated on star monopolization of the ball.  The team ranks second in offensive rating and sixth in defensive rating, although they haven't been defending the 3-point shot quite as well this year (36.5 percent this year vs. 34.5 percent last year).

What's scary for the rest of the NBA is how Dwyane Wade has seen a significant decrease in his minutes and raw box score production.  In 2011, Wade averaged 25.5 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 4.6 assists in 37.2 minutes per game.  In 2012, he has averaged 22.9 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 4.8 assists in 32.9 minutes per game.  On a per-minute basis, Wade is actually more productive in most categories this season.

That Miami has been able to deliver an even stronger regular season than last year despite Wade doing less heavy lifting indicates the team is now much more than just a talented group of individuals- they are gelling as a team.  Being able to reserve energy stores for the playoffs is good for the 30-year-old Wade, and it should be able to extend his career longer, too.

What happens when Wade starts playing 38-40 minutes per game in the playoffs?  How does it change Miami?  Perhaps they are concealing an even higher gear?  

Miami is still a donut team- no, that's not a nod to Eddy Curry.  But the most dangerous current contenders are led by perimeter-oriented players, and that bodes well for a perimeter corps that shut down Jeremy Lin a few weeks ago and Derrick Rose in the Eastern Conference Finals last year.

The Heat are in the stretch run now.  Come this postseason, we'll be able to observe the full potential of this core, and more SBCS questions should be answered.  

NBA All-Star Weekend Review

We were lucky to get the 2012 NBA All-Star Weekend.  Back in 1999, the NBA lockout guaranteed there'd be no All-Star game, and so, the league was forced to play out a rushed season without showcasing its talent through dunk contests and rookie-sophomore games and a superstar-laden exhibition.  

They were fortunate this year.  The 1999 lockout harmed the league's popularity, and it took nearly a decade to recoup some of the losses and find the next Michael Jordan.  Sadly, 2012 will still always be remembered as a lockout year, but hopefully not as forgettable as the '99 season.  

My thoughts on All-Star Weekend:

Kevin Durant captured the All-Star Game MVP.  

• It's John Wall, and not LeBron James, who should compete in the dunk contest.  Wall has the swag (Doouuggie!!!), the vertical, and the creativity to put on a show.  His behind-the-back jam at the end of the Rising Stars game necessitates his entry into the Saturday night main event next year. 

•  All I keep hearing is that the injection Andrew Bynum took to his knee was part of the maintenance every 7-footer requires.  Are the doctors sure 7-footers need this?  Are they sure they don't mean...the Tin Man?   

• Shaq didn't play Jeremy Lin enough minutes.  The Diesel, a master marketer by his own account, should have put Linsanity on display for a few more minutes with the whole NBA world watching. At least O'Neal had some words of wisdom for Lin. 

• This dunk contest outdid every other dunk contest of the post-VC/J-Rich era.  I'm not saying we found the next Vince Carter or Jason Richardson, but this year's contest had the right blend of pure dunking and fun gimmicks.  Gimmick dunks get tired and played out; this dunk contest resuscitated my enjoyment of the event.

• Paul George's glow-in-the-dark dunk deserves placement amongst the legendary dunks of the modern era.  It took VC's flawless 360 windmill from 2000 and built upon it creatively.  In terms of pure aesthetic execution of the dunk, Carter can't be beat.  But doing it in the dark- and on the first try no less- required an amazing amount of concentration.

• Dwight Howard should have taken more 3's during the All-Star game.  Wasted possessions are awesome.    

• I love when All-Star games come down to the wire.  Just wish Deron Williams could have hit that 3.  And I bet LeBron James wishes that more than anybody...  

Top-10 MVP Candidates at the All-Star Break

With the league's premier ballers playing in this weekend's All-Star Game, it feels like a good time to begin thinking about MVP candidates.  While there is no clear-cut frontrunner, a few players have risen above the pack.

Derrick Rose was a deserving MVP last year.  

My definition of the MVP, which I thought about last year, is...

"An NBA MVP needs to have the perfect blend of being a great player, having a great supporting cast that allows the player to flourish by allowing him to carry the maximum possible weight for the team, have that supporting cast give enough help to maximize the results of his efforts (and have those results look good relative to the league's other teams), and not have a similarly talented base, or Constant, on his team.  It's incredibly difficult to win titles this way.  MVP winners usually aren't on title teams. It takes one hell of a blend to accomplish that dish."


So let's be clear: An MVP isn't necessarily the best player (LeBron James), the best story (Jeremy Lin), or the guy on the best team (James or Kevin Durant).


For now, my rankings are as follows:


1.)  Kevin Durant-  He's the Constant on the West's best.  OKC has the second-best offense in the league, which is based on a perimeter-oriented attack led by KD, Russell Westbrook, and James Harden.  The Bearded One and RW handle a lot of the playmaking duties, but without Durant's scoring, OKC's offense would be incredibly predictable, as they wouldn't be able to start an attack inside the 3-point line.  Durant is also the team's best defensive rebounder with a 20.6 rebound rate.    

2.)  LeBron James-  He is the best player in the league, and he's on the best team in the league.  The only reason why I can't put him above Durant right now is because he is flanked by an all-star backcourt player AND an all-star frontcourt player.  Dwyane Wade might not be having his best statistical season, but he's still proven to be an offensive anchor.  Wade's missed games do give me pause, however, as LBJ was incredibly valuable with Wade out.  It's very close between James and Durant.

3.)  Kobe Bryant-  He just keeps plugging away.  The Laker perimeter squad sans Bryant is arguably the worst perimeter corps in the league.  Bryant needs to carry such an offensive load, from bringing the ball up to spreading the floor to creating shots for himself/others to volume scoring.  Without him, Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol would never even see the ball (ironic, isn't it?).

4.)  Chris Paul-  CP3 is after the Mamba mainly because his team has such depth at the point guard position.  I mean they lost Paul's backup to injury, and they still have Mo Williams coming in to spell him.  Still, Paul is playing like the best PG in the league.

5.)  Dwight Howard-  Dwight is a weak candidate right now.  Aside from the turmoil he is partially responsible for in Orlando, it seems he has also regressed in the scoring department (less volume and less efficiency compared to last year) and on D.  Howard usually has the Magic in the top five on D, but Orlando is closer to the league average this year.

Parker and Westbrook are having monster seasons.

6.)  Tony Parker-  San Antonio is first in their division and boasts a stellar SRS rating of 5.01, good for sixth in the league.  Parker has catalyzed S.A.'s offense without backcourt mate Manu Ginobili, an impressive feat in my book.

7.)  Russell Westbrook-  In the past, Westbrook has been Rondo-lite in his ability to hurt his team's offense as much as he helped his team's offense.  But the alpha-athlete of the NBA has the Thunder rolling at a frenetic pace and is playing better than ever.  I wouldn't be surprised to see him climb in the rankings.  

8.)  Derrick Rose-  Barring additional injuries, the other alpha-athlete will likely leapfrog the two point guards in front of him.  He has missed some time this year, and his team has done all right without him.  Personally, I do still think that over the long haul, Chicago would be incredibly screwed without Rose since he probably has the greatest offensive load of any perimeter player except maybe Kobe Bryant and Tony Parker.

9.)  Dwyane Wade-  He lands at number nine simply because of injury, decreased minutes, and the fact that he plays with somebody who plays his role (perimeter offensive attacker/creator) better than he does.  Still, Wade is arguably the second-best player in the league, and he's on the best team in the NBA.

10.)  Dirk Nowitzki-  After a sluggish start, Dirk seems back on track.  Despite Dallas having a lot of depth, Dirk is still by far the only player on the team who can be called an anchor.  Despite Tyson Chandler's departure, Nowitzki has his team in a solid position out West.

On the outside:

Blake Griffin - He's arguably the best PF in the league.  Plus he did this.  

Jeremy Lin-  I love Lin, but he isn't on my list yet because he hasn't been playing major minutes for that long.

A Very Merry 2012 NBA Preview

Here are some of my picks and predictions for the upcoming 66-game NBA season.


NBA Champion:  Miami Heat
I don't see them being denied.  They got better in the offseason by obtaining Shane Battier, and they apparently will run a better offense predicated on player movement.  With a more balanced offense, a ball-swinging Battier, health, and an improved post-game from LeBron James, the offense should be fine, even without a PG (though Norris Cole has looked OK).  Defensively, they are still missing a big man to control the paint against big centers, but their ridiculous wing defense should allow them to overcome that.

Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and the Thunder will give them a great NBA Finals though.


Chicago and Dallas are the viable candidates to take out Miami or OKC this year.  The Los Angeles teams are my sleepers.

KD vs. CP3 will likely determine the MVP race this season.  

NBA MVP:  Chris Paul or Kevin Durant
Chicago has a target on their back now.  I see them having a mini-2009-Hornets season, which drags Rose's MVP shares down because the Bulls don't meet the same gaudy expectations that carried over from the slight overachievement of the season prior.  New York's stars are too even to win MVP.  Kobe and the Lakers are getting older, LeBron and D-Wade hurt each other, and Dwight Howard is a complete wild card for MVP.  There's a good chance he switches teams midseason; I highly doubt they'll give him a league MVP award.


That leaves Paul and Durant.  By picking up where he left off last season- on a new team that sucked last season, no less- Paul's narrative is set for the MVP race.  It won't matter that Blake Griffin is on the team- Paul is established.  The voters will see it as Steve Nash and Amar'e Stoudemire all over again.


Durant has a shot, as I see him running away with another scoring title and OKC being the best regular season team in the West.


My sleeper pick is LeBron James.


Defensive Player of the Year:  Dwight Howard
Dikembe Mutombo won this award in 2001 after switching teams.  This award is based more on ability, reputation, and defensive stats, as opposed to narratives and team success, which sort of govern MVP voting.


Sixth Man of the Year:  A Maverick
The best Maverick coming off the bench has the best chance.  That team is deep.
If James Harden is a sixth man- please, Scotty, let him start- then he's the favorite.


Tracy McGrady is my LULZ pick.


Most Improved Player:  John Wall
This had a Denver Nugget written all over it until they all left for other parts of the world.  I think Wall has an all-star worthy season this year.  Perhaps next year, he'll make a D-Rose leap.  This year's improvement will be good enough for the award.


Serge Ibaka and even James Harden have a shot at this as well.


Rookie of the Year:  Kyrie Irving
I'm taking Irving since he'll have control of his team, but Brandon Knight and Ricky Rubio are possibilities, too.  

Deron Williams is N.J.'s anchor.  

Sleeper teams:  Nets and Suns
I was a lot more comfortable with this Nets pick before Brook Lopez got injured, but Mehmet Okur softens the blow.  Deron Williams has become a hugely underrated player after being traded last season and being shrouded in darkness while Paul and Rose have gotten the positive point guard headlines for the past year.  Williams is a top-7ish player in the league, and the Nets aren't a terrible group.  I think Williams elevates his team to the playoffs.


Steve Nash finally has a Suns team that defends and fits.  But it's too late now.  Phoenix won't be a contender, but they've got a great chance at making the playoffs.  Nash guarantees a good offense, while Marcin Gortat and Grant Hill provide balance with strong defense.  Phoenix is a solid team.


Those are my picks.  Merry Christmas, and enjoy the NBA season!

Pigskin Comparison: LBJ vs. KD

Aaron Rodgers and Kevin Durant vs. Tom Brady and LeBron James- which duo would you take for one year?

That might be a legitimate question soon enough.  Bron Bron issued a challenge to KD over Twitter a few days ago after Durant swapped sneaks for cleats.  Considering the NBA is lacking in, ya know, existence, we can't watch the budding James/Durant rivalry grow in pro ball.  How would the two fair if they went to the NFL? 

The stars wouldn't be going head-to-head in football.

• An apt destination for Durant is Green Bay.  OKC needs to load itself with more history to roll with the Pack, but both play in small markets with seemingly fiercely loyal fan bases, and they're both engineered by astute front offices.  

• I can't see KD being anything other than a WR.  Durant is great working off-ball with Russell Westbrook controlling the rock; imagine KD freeing himself of a defender after Rodgers cleverly escapes multiple defensive ends and linebackers.  (Rodgers replaces Eric Maynor at backup PG?)

• James obviously is going to play for New England.  I know he loves Dallas, but the second-best player in the league doesn't play there, so New England it is.  His sense of acting for ironic purposes is lacking, so the Browns are out.  

• James would be a receiver as well.  Tight end is too physical; I don't think you want a 6'8 guy blocking 320 lbs. masters of leverage. 

So you've got two tall wide receivers for two of the best QBs around.  I think it works all right.  James would be better since he has experience playing football and would theoretically be the better blocker, leaper, and YAC accumulator, but KD's length and height could prove to be effective in red-zone situations, especially with Rodgers being able to throw from any angle with startling accuracy.

James the possession receiver, Durant the bigger end zone threat- sounds like a common fantasy football dilemma.  

[Full disclosure:  I have my doubts either would be able to stand up to the riggers of the National Football League over an extended period of time; it's not as simple as "they're pro athletes."  But it's the lockout, and imagination starts taking over...]       

    

The NBA's Top 5 Up-and-Coming Duos Countdown: Introduction

Dynamic duos. Left jab, right hook combos. Kris and Kim Humphries. Every successful NBA team needs them (Next season, your 2017 NBA Champion New Jersey Nets…). Few have them. If a franchise can obtain a young pair to cultivate for the future, they can add pieces around them and build a champion within five years. At least, that’s the plan.

Even a small pair can pay large dividends in the end.

I’ll be doing a top five countdown on the best up-and-coming duos in the NBA today. The criteria door is held wide open for interpretation- as interpretative and free-flowing as John Wall’s Dougie- but there are some general guidelines. Recently drafted players who haven’t played a second of NBA basketball will not be included. Neither will established NBA stars, such as LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Kevin Durant and even Derrick Rose. What? He won an NBA MVP for Jordan’s sake!

The duos also must be the projected key members of their teams’ cores. James Harden and Serge Ibaka would have ranked high if not for this unfair golden rule which I have no power to change. As we see every day from our favorite duo, Republicans and Democrats- change occurs at a glacial pace.

I first want to introduce two duos that didn’t make the top five cut: Minnesota’s Michael Beasley and Kevin Love, and Indiana’s Roy Hibbert and Darren Collison.

Michael Beasley and Kevin Love just missed the cut.

Beasley and Love are definitely more talented than some duos in the top five, but they did not make it for one reason: they play the same position. Love is a pure, traditional 4; Beasley is a modern, versatile 4, but a 4 nonetheless. B-Easy has small forward skills like Lamar Odom has small forward skills (and hopefully a similar maturity arc); it’s what creates their advantage against other power forwards. Slot Beasley in at the 3 and he loses his quickness advantage while providing sub-par catch-and-shoot ability and poor defense. Too much redundancy from this pair, especially on Minny.

Hibbert and Collison didn’t make it because Danny Granger is still in play for the team. Granger is young enough (27) where he may still be part of this Pacer core. Indiana has a very good young nucleus, however.

My apologies to Jrue Holiday, Derrick Favors, Stephen Curry and Metta World Peace. Holiday, Favors and Curry are great young players, but most of their non-rookie teammates are known quantities at this point. Evan Turner or Spencer Hawes intrigued, but Evan’s rookie year scared me off, while Spencer’s fear of the post frightened me even more. Sixer, Jazz and Warrior fans shouldn’t take this as an indictment on the future of their respective teams; all three squads have solid overall cores.

As for the new star on the block, Metta, you barely missed the cut. Most of your teammates are veterans (Andrew Bynum’s knees say he’s a vet all right).

The next post will feature the fifth best new duo in the league…

The South Beach Case Study: Year One Complete

The first year of the South Beach Case Study concluded with a compelling NBA Finals that saw the Dallas Mavericks defeat the Miami Heat in six games.  Although Miami- specifically LeBron James- mightily disappointed in the Finals, don't be quick to call the experiment a failure.   

1. This team was designed by Pat Riley, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, James, and according to the media, Satan himself, to be a contender for many years.  The case study is in its infancy. 
2. If James plays half as well in the Finals as he had all season, the first year of this experiment would have concluded with a championship.     

Calling the 2011 season a rough start to the experiment in terms of variables understates how flawed Miami's team was constructed around the Big Three.  Udonis Haslem and Mike Miller, the team's fourth and fifth best players, were injured throughout the year and missed the habit-forming process that is the NBA regular season.  The Three Kings were flanked by limited one-way players, rusting veterans, and zero-way piles of rust (I'm looking at you, Mike Bibby).  Yet, even with their heavy lifters needing time to gel and redundancy getting in the way of a good time, Miami won 58 games and vanquished every Eastern Conference foe in the playoffs.

From left:  Chris Bosh, LeBron James and Dwyane Wade. 

What have we learned?  I'll posit questions from the beginning of the year and briefly give conclusions.

Can two ball-dominant slashers, James and Wade, work together?  Yes, but not perfectly.  An inside/outside combination always works better because it's more balanced.  James and Wade tweaked their off-ball games this year to feature more cutting, spot-up shooting and reading of offensive rebounding lanes.  However, old habits crept through at times, displaying themselves in the form of the two augmenting the playbook to feature "isolation and hold the ball for 18 seconds before acting" sets.  Not very effective basketball.

 Will the egos of the three amigos collide or will they remember the sacrifices they promised to make in order to play with each other?  To put it simply, they remembered.  James and Wade appeared to share the ball in crunch time, too.   

What about substitution patterns and minutes distributions? Will their careers be extended because they don't have to lift their teams alone anymore?  Well, they carried a heavy burden this year.  Spoelstra couldn't afford to really rest his prime players, and without a true post defender, the three stars expended a lot of energy making the defense elite (fifth in defensive rating).  

What happens to a superstar's stats when he isn't playing in a single superstar-centric offense anymore?  The offensive stats went down a bit for Wade and James and a lot for Bosh.  This is related to the first question.  When the ball-handlers go to iso-ball, they waste the help they signed up to play with.

The team would be best served obtaining a point guard able and willing to take command of the offense from James and Wade.  If Miami runs some actual plays that turn James and Wade into finishers, Miami's offense could get to an all-time level.   

The SBCS gets the summer off.  Year two will begin...well, with the lockout looming, that's as unpredictable as South Beach itself.       

NBA Finals 2011: The More Things Change...

The Miami Heat vs. the Dallas Mavericks- round two.  It's five years later, and we're back to the exact match up.  It's five years later, but Miami and Dallas seem 20 years removed from where they were in 2006.  Has an NBA Finals ever had so many classic conflicts, parallels, and role reversals as this year's Finals?

The anti-climatic answer which will undoubtedly deflate the serious tone I was setting and bring levity to this opening is a simple "Yes, perhaps last year when L.A. faced Boston."  The storyline was that L.A. was out for revenge for 2008, this time armed with Ron Artest and Andrew Bynum to combat Boston's physicality.  It worked when L.A. destroyed Boston on the glass in game seven, earning them their redemption.  Boston finished the 2010 series without their brute center, Kendrick Perkins, just like L.A. with Bynum two years prior.

Round 2: "I want a good, clean fight." 

Still, this year's matchup compels the basketball lover's mind.  You saw it coming in the Conference Finals when both teams went up 3-1.  Your mind wondered forward and you started thinking about LeBron James vs. Dirk Nowitzki in a fourth quarter, salivating at the chance to watch somebody shut down Dirk or torch LeBron.  Then you started thinking that it couldn't happen because if it did, somebody loses.  The way both are performing, losing seems out of the question.  It's like when you compare John Wall's dougie against Skip Bayless' dougie.  OK, maybe not.

Anyway, here are some particulars and perpendiculars:        

• Take a look at the center position.  Erick Dampier- the Erick Dampier- has switched teams, a cataclysmic and physics-altering shift in the NBA landscape .  This time, Dallas is the team with the two-headed center; Brendan Haywood and Tyson Chandler aren't Shaquille O'Neal and Alonzo Mourning, but you get the idea.

• The two teams combined to punch out the youngins who led Team USA 2010 to victory, Kevin Durant and Derrick Rose, in the Conference Finals.  Rose won MVP and Durant has won two scoring titles, yet the older guard taxed the rebels their dues before team success.

• Both teams stomped on last year's NBA Finalists in the second round.  They also defeated the Blazers and Sixers, both of which have the letter "P" as the first letter of their respective cities (it's not the best I can do- I promise).

•  Both James and Nowitzki saw a dip in their regular season raw numbers compared to previous years, yet might be playing better than ever.  Both have changed their games to combat perceived past weaknesses in their play:  Nowitzki's mid-post game allows him to dominate smaller defenders, and LeBron's mid-range game is now elite.

• James and Nowitzki made the Finals in consecutive years.  They both had their legacies tarnished by embarrassing defeats, resulting in the last titles for the great bigs of the era, Duncan and Shaq (with help from Dwyane Wade of course).  Both are seeking vengeance against the NBA Finals itself.

• It was possible last summer that Dirk could have joined the Heat, likely in place of Bosh.  Bosh has played well in these playoffs despite my T.V. heckling, but could you imagine if Dirk landed on this team instead of Bosh?

Where the individual players are in their career, and how they came together, is probably the most interesting subplot.  Again, 2006 comes into play.  In '06, Miami was in win-now mode, saturated with veterans and ring-chasers like Antoine Walker and Gary Payton and coached by legend Pat Riley.  This version's core is made up of younger players in their prime who came together, at the beckoning of Riley, to form a dynasty.  They are coached by a more modern tactician in Erik Spoelstra.

Dallas has a contrasting narrative.  They were young in '06, featuring a seemingly prime Dirk with Devin Harris, Josh Howard and prime Jason Terry as his unproven supporting cast.  The current incarnation has players that can tell a common theme- "I lost my chance before, and I'm hungrier than ever."  Shawn Marion  with Phoenix, Jason Kidd with New Jersey, Chandler with New Orleans in 2008, Peja Stojakovic with Sacramento and Terry and Nowitzki with Dallas have all had their hearts broken.

LeBron James and Dirk Nowitzki will meet in the NBA Finals.

 Let's get to some basketball.  I thought OKC would do a better job of contesting Dallas on the perimeter, but Dallas hurt them on the secondary break as OKC began to play lazy defense after they turned the ball over 86 times per game.  Miami has similar length and even more speed than OKC on the perimeter, and they are much better at defending in transition and on secondary breaks because they seemingly don't care about hitting the offensive glass. 

This will be the key to the series.  How Dirk is defended isn't what decides this series- LeBron might guard Dirk in spots, but that matchup is definitely going to get more hype as a deciding factor this week than it deserves.  Dirk will get his, but will the peripheral Mavericks get theirs when they need to put the ball on the floor after Miami closes out on them.  That's the key variable for Dallas.

Miami can go big on the perimeter, which means trouble for Dallas when Miami is on offense.  It's Dallas who is going to have trouble closing out on Miami's perimeter players.  J.J. Barea and Terry are too small to take on James/Wade/Mike Miller.  Kidd can decently defend when he has help behind him and can funnel, but what happens when he needs to close out on James or Wade and they get to have a step on the older Kidd?  What happens when Miami targets Nowitzki in the pick-n-roll like they did with Boozer?

Miami has a better chance of winning the series.  They have the top-end talent advantage, and after seeing how they closed out game four (that one play where Wade blocked and James dove...man) against Chicago, I'd say this team has the effort and chemistry to disrupt Dallas's primary variable- their peripheral perimeter players.

2011 is different from 2006:  Osama's been done taken care of, The Wire is gone and Louis C.K. thankfully has his own show.  Some things stay the same though.  Miami wins the title in six or seven.