Western Conference Second Round Playoff Preview

The Western Conference is wide open this year. Out are the champion Dallas Mavericks and the darkhorse Memphis Grizzlies. Just two L.A. teams, an up-and-coming superpower, and the old guard remain.

San Antonio Spurs (1) vs. Los Angeles Clippers (5)

Two of the best ever from Wake Forest.

The Clippers have youth, size, and the best player on the floor in Chris Paul. In some ways, it appears the Clippers are the perfect team for the job of taking the number one seed out. San Antonio is older, slower, and smaller. Feast on the offensive glass and exceed Tony Parker's production with CP3's, and you have yourself an upset.

But it's not that simple. The Spurs have superior health, home-court advantage, and, to put it nicely, a significant edge at head coach. They also have 3-point shooting. San Antonio ranked first in the NBA in 3-point percentage this season and continued hitting from deep against Utah at a 40.7 percent clip. The Clippers, nearly last in the league at defending the 3-point line during the regular season, closed out on Memphis well, but Memphis's weakness is shooting 3's, whereas it's a strength for the Spurs. The Clippers don't have the size or the consistent smarts to defend San Antonio's spread-floor offense.

With that spacing, Parker and Manu Ginobili will carve San Antonio up. The only way the Clippers contend with that duo is if Eric Bledsoe plays like he did in game 7 against Memphis. Tim Duncan should also get his on the green DeAndre Jordan, who will likely be in foul trouble for much of the series.

The best thing L.A. has going is Blake Griffin will likely put up better numbers than the 18 points and 6.4 rebounds he did against Zach Randolph. His production and offensive rebounding, as well as Kenyon Martin's and Reggie Evans's ability to drag the Spurs to hell, will keep this series close. Chris Paul will dominate as per usual.

The series will be close, but the Spurs have too many built-in advantages going in.


Pick: Spurs in 6


Oklahoma City Thunder (2) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (3)

The Western Conference matchup everybody wanted to see. After the Thunder thrashed the team that trounced them a year ago, they get their revenge match against the Lakers, who bounced them from the playoffs two years ago.

Kobe Bryant and Kevin Durant are two of the league's best pure scorers.

Derek Fisher vs. Kobe Bryant. Metta World Peace vs. James Harden. Kendrick Perkins vs. Pau Gasol, whom he's had words with in the media, and Andrew Bynum, whom he battled in the 2010 NBA Finals. Oh, and there's Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, too.

World Peace locked down Durantula two years ago, but World Peace was Ron Artest and Durantula was a young scorer in his first playoff series. Durant is now a seasoned 3-time scoring champ with experience in the Western Conference Finals. He won't go off for 40 each game, but he'll be a consistent scoring presence.

Westbrook and Harden will determine the series for OKC. If they can effectively do what Ty Lawson and Danilo Gallinari could not- that is, initiate plays in the halfcourt and score efficiently with the clock winding down- then the Thunder offense will be lethal enough to win. Bryant has slowed Westbrook in the past, but not this version of Westbrook. How does L.A. defend OKC when they put Harden, Durant, and Westbrook on the court? That was Dallas's issue, and Jason Terry got torched. Can Ramon Sessions and Steve Blake do any better?

Gasol will likely dominate Serge Ibaka, who is a poor post defender. Bynum's offense is the bigger variable; L.A. is at its best when Bynum is scoring efficiently and the Lakers get to defend in the half-court. OKC will destroy them if they get in transition, so L.A. needs to create space for both 7-footers to go to work.

In the end, OKC's fast, tall perimeter double teams will likely make entry-passes too difficult, and Bryant will need to take a lot of shots. Bryant is an amazing player, but it's too much to ask to cover up all of his team's flaws at his age against a young Thunder team.

This series will end in five, but it won't feel easy. This will be a great matchup.


Pick: Thunder in 5

Western Conference First Round Playoff Preview

Here is a preview of the first round of the Western Conference playoffs.

San Antonio Spurs (1) vs. Utah Jazz (8)


Utah has youth, size, and dominant offensive rebounding (second in the league); it's easy to think Spurs vs. Grizzlies 2011 all over again. However, there are major differences this year: Utah is a below average defensive team (19th in the league), and the Spurs have a healthy Manu Ginobili.

One more time?

Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap, Enes Kanter, and Derrick Favors will cause problems for the Spurs, but Jefferson is easier for Tim Duncan to guard than Zach Randolph. Jefferson is the best scoring option on the team, like Randolph was for Memphis, but Duncan was relegated to guarding a less important Marc Gasol last year because of Randolph's unrelenting face-up game. TD can handle Jefferson's low-post game.

As tempting as it is to make the call for an upset again, it isn't happening this year. Utah won't be able to slow down San Antonio's offense.

Pick: San Antonio Spurs


Oklahoma City Thunder (2) vs. Dallas Mavericks (7)

Dirk and KD are elite offensive players.

In last year's Western Conference Finals, the Mavericks beat the Thunder in five games because the lineup of Dirk Nowitzki, Tyson Chandler, Shawn Marion, Jason Kidd, and Jason Terry meshed as perfectly as a five-man unit realistically could. Chandler is out of the equation now, and his supposed replacement, Lamar Odom, isn't going to play for Dallas anymore. Chandler occupied Kendrick Perkins, Serge Ibaka, and Nick Collison last season, which allowed Dallas's perimeter threats to go off. Now, those bigs can help when Dirk or Jet drive.

The Maverick offense, normally a staple in the top 10, was ranked 22nd this year. Without an ultra-efficient offense, Dallas's defense, though supposedly improved from last season, will surrender too many fast-break points to the young Thunder. Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and James Harden should be able to feast on Nowitzki's and Brendan Haywood's pick-n-roll defense.

Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder


Los Angeles Lakers (3) vs. Denver Nuggets (6)

Sessions needs to perform well.

If it weren't for Ramon Sessions, this would be a sure upset for Denver. Ty Lawson would have torched L.A.'s pick-n-roll defense while Arron Afflalo would have shadowed an overworked Kobe Bryant enough to win. Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol wouldn't see the ball with Kobe gunning and Derek Fisher flopping.

Sessions changes the game. His ability to deliver the ball to the All-NBA-caliber 7-footers allows L.A. to dominate the inside matchup, which means less fast-breaking for the deep, energetic Nuggets. Denver doesn't have a single big man than can contend with Bynum or Gasol, and that's a damning matchup disadvantage.

Pick: Los Angeles Lakers


Memphis Grizzlies (4) vs. Los Angeles Clippers (5)


This is the most difficult matchup to assess because of injury variables. Is Zach Randolph back to form? Is Chris Paul's hamstring going to limit him?

CP3 's health is the most important variable in the series.

Randolph and Gasol vs. Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan is the frontcourt matchup of the first round; the teams are incredibly close when it comes to rebounding on both sides of the floor. The Clippers struggle stopping teams, but the Grizz are a below-average offensive team. Memphis led the league in causing turnovers (.163 TOV% for opponents), and Gasol can defend interior scorers.

But L.A.'s number four-ranked offense doesn't turn the ball over (.127 TOV%) thanks to CP3 (2.1 turnovers per game), and they don't rely on a post scorer. Instead, the Clippers attack with the Paul/Griffin pick-n-roll. If Paul is healthy, Memphis will have a hard time stopping the Clippers.

Pick: Los Angeles Clippers

Click here to see the first round Eastern Conference matchups!

Mike Brown Earning His Seat in L.A.

Phil Jackson stopped by Phil Jackson's office- yeah, it's his until L.A. wins another title- to speak with new Laker coach Mike Brown.  They talked players of course, and when Brown was interviewed, he spoke about the types of schemes he'd run.  While he couldn't be specific because of the lockout rules prohibiting him from talking about players, he did shed some light on what he plans to do.

Apparently, he'll use sets similar to the ones San Antonio used when Tim Duncan and David Robinson played together.  Last year, Kobe Bryant lost a step and wasn't as dependable as an offensive Constant, so spreading the offensive responsibility around evenly might make the Laker offense less predictable.  Brown can't make wings better 3-point shooters or ball-handlers, so Kobe's load will remain large, but if Brown runs more plays for Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum in the mid-post and low-post, it'll do two things:

Mike Brown must be firm with his new star-studded team.  

1.) It'll take the volume scoring load away from Kobe, preserving his energy for crucial times.  

2.)  It'll expedite the transition from a Kobe-centric "Triangle"- "all that means is 'get the hell out the way'"- to a more forceful interior-oriented offense as Kobe declines further.  

Brown was criticized for running uncreative sets in Cleveland while he coached LeBron James, and though those accusations held merit, Cleveland didn't have the all-around bevy of weapons L.A. possesses.  

Defensively, it seems he wants the bigs to show further away from the basket and hedge out quickly, then recover.  Bynum and Gasol didn't seem willing to do that last season, however, and they aren't the most lithe bigs around (Gasol has seen his most athletic days), so motivating them to do this will be a challenge.  

L.A. was at its best last season after the all-star break with Bynum committed to defense; Brown definitely is adept at getting young players to commit fully to D.  LeBron usually credits Brown for helping him with defensive fundamentals.  Now, James is one of the better perimeter defenders in the league.  

Brown can't solve all of L.A.'s problems, but if his coaching strategies can optimize the talent on the team, Phil Jackson might be stepping into Mike Brown's office next summer to talk players.