ECF: Heat vs. Celtics

It's The Big Three vs. The Big Three 2, Round Two. Miami slayed the beast of the East in last year's five-game semifinal series. Now they reconvene in the Eastern Conference Finals with a bevy of intriguing matchups and variables.

Miami Heat (2) vs. Boston Celtics (4)

Chris Bosh needs to at least occupy Kevin Garnett.

The only reason Miami is even here is because Dwyane Wade and LeBron James went all Shaq & Kobe on the Indiana Pacers last series. Over the final three games against Indy, James averaged 32.7 points, 11.3 rebounds, and 8 assists per game on 61.3 percent True Shooting and Wade averaged 33 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 3.7 assists per game on 64.4 percent True Shooting. Ridiculous.

But that isn't sustainable against Boston. Kevin Garnett can roam around since Miami doesn't have a big man to attack with. Remember how Roy Hibbert was supposed to do that in the Indiana series but didn't because he's an overrated, plodding, soft big man who didn't deserve to be an All-Star this year? Well, KG can get it done. Boston's playoff-leading defense (94.2 defensive rating) should stifle their new opponent.

Miami's stingy defense should do the same against Boston's anemic offense. With Avery Bradley hurt and Rajon Rondo being a poor shooter - save for the final five minutes of game seven against Philly (Poor Doug Collins)- Miami's playoff-leading ability to force turnovers will provide them with easy transition buckets. LeBron James has shut down Carmelo Anthony and Danny Granger this postseason and has shut down a healthy Paul Pierce in the playoffs before; handling a hobbled Pierce won't be a problem. And for all the talk of Boston's success from behind the arc against Miami this season, the Heat's playoff opponents have shot below 30 percent from 3-point land in the playoffs. Miami is paying attention to closeouts in the playoffs.

Kevin Garnett will get his; he's the matchup advantage Boston has to milk. Rondo is smart enough to get him the ball.

The big variable here is the health of Chris Bosh. Does he play? If he plays, can he give 60-70 percent of his average performance? They need him to at least be a presence, at least pull a Willis Reed by occupying the other team's frontcourt despite an injury. KG has historically owned Bosh, but if he can simply be enough of an offensive threat to deflect attention from Wade and James, they can take care of the rest.

Miami is the superior basketball team, and if both teams were fully healthy, it'd be an easy call. The Bosh injury plays, however. After watching him cry last year following the NBA Finals loss, one must believe he'll fight through pain and try to help his team. Two-and-a-half solid games from him is really all Miami needs.

Pick: Heat in 6

WCF Preview: Thunder vs. Spurs

When Kevin Durant was asked if he could envision his young Thunder team following a similar life arc as the San Antonio Spurs- perennial rulers of the NBA for the past 15 years- he said that yes, that's the team's desired path.

They've got everything in place.  Durant is their quiet, no glitz-all guile superstar, their Tim Duncan. Both teams have rabid fans in relatively small markets.  Most importantly, they share a cultural structure that molds players into whatever is needed- to hell with one's ego.

The Spurs hid Sam Presti for a while, but now that he's out, he might have created a team that can take out the Spurs this year and reproduce what they've done over the last decade plus.

Tim Duncan and Kevin Durant.

San Antonio Spurs (1) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (2)


The Spurs are playing the perfect brand of basketball this postseason.  Swing passes lead to the open man getting a high-percentage look on nearly every play; it makes sense then that the Spurs are shooting 54.8% eFG, including nearly 43 percent from 3-point range.

But that was against mediocre defensive teams with poor closeout defenders.  The Thunder understand that a defense's answers for swing passes are closeouts that see five play as one, each defender covering for his teammate. OKC's youth breeds mistakes, but their incredible length helps.

The defensive trio of Durant, Russell Westbrook, and Thabo Sefolosha force the opposition to think quickly.  The Lakers had a decent size advantage against the Thunder, but OKC combatted L.A.'s physicality by being physical themselves and collapsing on Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol with lengthy double teams.  The Thunder rotate quickly without getting burned.  It is this interaction with San Antonio's controlled chaos on offense that looks like a thrilling matchup.

Tony Parker will work his way into the paint against Westbrook, and the usual chain reaction will ensue.  But unlike the Jazz and Clippers, the Thunder possess the perimeter quickness to slow down the 3-point shooting and secondary slashes of the Spurs.  Sefolosha vs. Manu Ginobili is a major matchup to watch.

Kendrick Perkins can contain Duncan in the post, but what about on the perimeter where Duncan spends a lot of time?  OKC may find it appealing to place Serge Ibaka on TD and simply treat him like Bynum when he posts.  Ibaka can switch and recover better than Perkins can, a useful trait against a springy Duncan.

Either way, The Big Fundamental is a matchup problem.  With him and Parker leading the way, the Spurs should have a strong offensive series, though it's doubtful they annihilate their opposition with their shooting as they have in previous rounds.

What will determine this series is how San Antonio defends OKC.  Will they cause enough turnovers and misses to generate their own fast-break opportunities? How do they match up against Westbrook, Durant, and James Harden?

If Westbrook continues to take care of the ball like he has throughout the playoffs, it's over.  The Spurs are below average at causing turnovers, and Tony Parker isn't good enough defensively to pressure RW.  If it's the case that Danny Green or Kawhi Leonard is put on Westbrook, Parker becomes what Steve Blake and Jason Terry were: mince meat for Harden. Green needs to be put on Durant anyway; KD is surging after torching Metta World Peace for 26 points per game on over 51 percent shooting.

Westbrook's poised play, Durant's consistent production, and Harden's matchup distortion will shock the Spurs in game one. Sweet chin music- hit them right in the mouth. The Thunder will roll into the NBA Finals from there, possibly with the torch in hand.


Pick: Thunder in 6 (Thunder take Game 1 as well)

Western Conference Second Round Playoff Preview

The Western Conference is wide open this year. Out are the champion Dallas Mavericks and the darkhorse Memphis Grizzlies. Just two L.A. teams, an up-and-coming superpower, and the old guard remain.

San Antonio Spurs (1) vs. Los Angeles Clippers (5)

Two of the best ever from Wake Forest.

The Clippers have youth, size, and the best player on the floor in Chris Paul. In some ways, it appears the Clippers are the perfect team for the job of taking the number one seed out. San Antonio is older, slower, and smaller. Feast on the offensive glass and exceed Tony Parker's production with CP3's, and you have yourself an upset.

But it's not that simple. The Spurs have superior health, home-court advantage, and, to put it nicely, a significant edge at head coach. They also have 3-point shooting. San Antonio ranked first in the NBA in 3-point percentage this season and continued hitting from deep against Utah at a 40.7 percent clip. The Clippers, nearly last in the league at defending the 3-point line during the regular season, closed out on Memphis well, but Memphis's weakness is shooting 3's, whereas it's a strength for the Spurs. The Clippers don't have the size or the consistent smarts to defend San Antonio's spread-floor offense.

With that spacing, Parker and Manu Ginobili will carve San Antonio up. The only way the Clippers contend with that duo is if Eric Bledsoe plays like he did in game 7 against Memphis. Tim Duncan should also get his on the green DeAndre Jordan, who will likely be in foul trouble for much of the series.

The best thing L.A. has going is Blake Griffin will likely put up better numbers than the 18 points and 6.4 rebounds he did against Zach Randolph. His production and offensive rebounding, as well as Kenyon Martin's and Reggie Evans's ability to drag the Spurs to hell, will keep this series close. Chris Paul will dominate as per usual.

The series will be close, but the Spurs have too many built-in advantages going in.


Pick: Spurs in 6


Oklahoma City Thunder (2) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (3)

The Western Conference matchup everybody wanted to see. After the Thunder thrashed the team that trounced them a year ago, they get their revenge match against the Lakers, who bounced them from the playoffs two years ago.

Kobe Bryant and Kevin Durant are two of the league's best pure scorers.

Derek Fisher vs. Kobe Bryant. Metta World Peace vs. James Harden. Kendrick Perkins vs. Pau Gasol, whom he's had words with in the media, and Andrew Bynum, whom he battled in the 2010 NBA Finals. Oh, and there's Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, too.

World Peace locked down Durantula two years ago, but World Peace was Ron Artest and Durantula was a young scorer in his first playoff series. Durant is now a seasoned 3-time scoring champ with experience in the Western Conference Finals. He won't go off for 40 each game, but he'll be a consistent scoring presence.

Westbrook and Harden will determine the series for OKC. If they can effectively do what Ty Lawson and Danilo Gallinari could not- that is, initiate plays in the halfcourt and score efficiently with the clock winding down- then the Thunder offense will be lethal enough to win. Bryant has slowed Westbrook in the past, but not this version of Westbrook. How does L.A. defend OKC when they put Harden, Durant, and Westbrook on the court? That was Dallas's issue, and Jason Terry got torched. Can Ramon Sessions and Steve Blake do any better?

Gasol will likely dominate Serge Ibaka, who is a poor post defender. Bynum's offense is the bigger variable; L.A. is at its best when Bynum is scoring efficiently and the Lakers get to defend in the half-court. OKC will destroy them if they get in transition, so L.A. needs to create space for both 7-footers to go to work.

In the end, OKC's fast, tall perimeter double teams will likely make entry-passes too difficult, and Bryant will need to take a lot of shots. Bryant is an amazing player, but it's too much to ask to cover up all of his team's flaws at his age against a young Thunder team.

This series will end in five, but it won't feel easy. This will be a great matchup.


Pick: Thunder in 5

Linsanity Beware

Jeremy Lin needs to fight the urge to return. Pride and a desire to compete are common traits in most successful athletes, but in this case, pride and desire need to be tempered in favor of reality and caution.

The NBA can't afford to lose both of these young fellas.

The New York Knicks are down 3-0 in their series with the Miami Heat and have struggled to defend LeBron James and Dwyane Wade. With the roll that duo is on, there is no way the Knicks can take four in a row. Giving up is out of the question, but giving up Jeremy Lin to the whim of the injury gods can't happen either. It can't happen.

Especially with the recent Derrick Rose ACL tear. Although it can't be proven in this particular case, there is a chance that Rose's non-contact injury last week was partially caused by Rose returning from injury too soon. With his leg muscles weakened, the ligament may have had too much stress on it when Rose pushed off the floor.

Lin doesn't have Rose's vertical explosion- the two players have different styles and strengths- but Lin's bread-and-butter is using his surprisingly quick first step to get past the primary defender and then using his crafty ball-handling and quick change of direction to spear through the help defense and into the paint. There's a lot of planting and pushing off involved. Lin has only played big-time minutes this season, so extra caution is sensible.

It'd break millions of basketball hearts to see two 23-year-old point guards hurt their legs in the same postseason. You know David Stern doesn't want the health of an integral global basketball figure jeopardized. Amare Stoudemire would probably break his foot kicking a fire hydrant in disgust following a Lin injury.

It's not worth Lin's future. Game four is not worth it, and this series is no longer worth it. Mike Woodson should focus on getting the ball to Carmelo Anthony in favorable scoring positions, not figuring out if or when Lin will return this season. Cede Miami the conference this year and get ready to take it from them next year with Lin at the offensive helm. Any other decision is insanity.

NBA Playoffs Tip-Off: Injuries, Comebacks, and Chest Bumps

The condensed 66-game season spoiled NBA fans by giving them daily games to watch and triple-headers to wait for. The only costs were the other 16 games and Derrick Rose's ACL.

It wasn't worth it.

D-Rose is out for the playoffs.

To what extent the shortened season contributed to Rose's injury can't be proved, but one can't help but connect it to the injuries suffered by Rose, Dwight Howard, and Knick rookie Iman Shumpert; Rose and Howard have been iron men throughout their respective careers. With any luck, these young players can take advantage of advancements in medicine and return with their explosive athleticism intact.

Here are some thoughts after the first weekend of NBA playoff action:

• The Miami Heat are making the NBA Finals. Chicago without Rose is like a declawed and toothless lion- it's still big, fast, and strong, but it lost its primary way of taking the game by the throat. The Knicks without Shumpert have no way to defend Dwyane Wade, which is fatal since they can't guard LeBron James either.

• The Clippers comeback was for the ages. Reggie Evans's defense on Zach Randolph should make any and every basketball purist smile, and Chris Paul's competitive nature never shined through more. Still, L.A. needs to make major adjustments to get Blake Griffin off, because Memphis shut him down. Randy Foye, Nick Young, and Mo Williams will need to step up if Caron Butler can't go full throttle after breaking his hand- Young especially since he has good size.

• If Andrew Bynum delivers the kind of defensive performance he did Sunday, the Lakers can win the title. It doesn't need to be 10 blocks per game; it needs to be consistently challenging shots in the paint. Denver's big men are three levels below Bynum and Pau Gasol.

• The Indiana Pacers are still going to win their series against Orlando, but their flaw was exposed in game one. They couldn't adequately take advantage of Howard's absence even with Roy Hibbert playing, and they couldn't consistently score against an Orlando defense that has struggled without their anchor. Indiana could have made a statement to the rest of the Eastern Conference in game one; instead, they put themselves in a hole against an inferior team.

• Rajon Rondo's suspension was warranted. He did trip, but he didn't even seem to care that he bumped the referee. If he didn't get suspended, the 2007 Phoenix Suns would roll in their graves for the letter of the NBA law not being enforced.

• Dirk Nowitzki is an unstoppable offensive player. His Mavericks, though, are vulnerable without Tyson Chandler, and they're facing a team that will take advantage of that vulnerability.

Stay tuned for more action, and hope that no more injuries occur!