WCF Preview: Thunder vs. Spurs

When Kevin Durant was asked if he could envision his young Thunder team following a similar life arc as the San Antonio Spurs- perennial rulers of the NBA for the past 15 years- he said that yes, that's the team's desired path.

They've got everything in place.  Durant is their quiet, no glitz-all guile superstar, their Tim Duncan. Both teams have rabid fans in relatively small markets.  Most importantly, they share a cultural structure that molds players into whatever is needed- to hell with one's ego.

The Spurs hid Sam Presti for a while, but now that he's out, he might have created a team that can take out the Spurs this year and reproduce what they've done over the last decade plus.

Tim Duncan and Kevin Durant.

San Antonio Spurs (1) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (2)


The Spurs are playing the perfect brand of basketball this postseason.  Swing passes lead to the open man getting a high-percentage look on nearly every play; it makes sense then that the Spurs are shooting 54.8% eFG, including nearly 43 percent from 3-point range.

But that was against mediocre defensive teams with poor closeout defenders.  The Thunder understand that a defense's answers for swing passes are closeouts that see five play as one, each defender covering for his teammate. OKC's youth breeds mistakes, but their incredible length helps.

The defensive trio of Durant, Russell Westbrook, and Thabo Sefolosha force the opposition to think quickly.  The Lakers had a decent size advantage against the Thunder, but OKC combatted L.A.'s physicality by being physical themselves and collapsing on Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol with lengthy double teams.  The Thunder rotate quickly without getting burned.  It is this interaction with San Antonio's controlled chaos on offense that looks like a thrilling matchup.

Tony Parker will work his way into the paint against Westbrook, and the usual chain reaction will ensue.  But unlike the Jazz and Clippers, the Thunder possess the perimeter quickness to slow down the 3-point shooting and secondary slashes of the Spurs.  Sefolosha vs. Manu Ginobili is a major matchup to watch.

Kendrick Perkins can contain Duncan in the post, but what about on the perimeter where Duncan spends a lot of time?  OKC may find it appealing to place Serge Ibaka on TD and simply treat him like Bynum when he posts.  Ibaka can switch and recover better than Perkins can, a useful trait against a springy Duncan.

Either way, The Big Fundamental is a matchup problem.  With him and Parker leading the way, the Spurs should have a strong offensive series, though it's doubtful they annihilate their opposition with their shooting as they have in previous rounds.

What will determine this series is how San Antonio defends OKC.  Will they cause enough turnovers and misses to generate their own fast-break opportunities? How do they match up against Westbrook, Durant, and James Harden?

If Westbrook continues to take care of the ball like he has throughout the playoffs, it's over.  The Spurs are below average at causing turnovers, and Tony Parker isn't good enough defensively to pressure RW.  If it's the case that Danny Green or Kawhi Leonard is put on Westbrook, Parker becomes what Steve Blake and Jason Terry were: mince meat for Harden. Green needs to be put on Durant anyway; KD is surging after torching Metta World Peace for 26 points per game on over 51 percent shooting.

Westbrook's poised play, Durant's consistent production, and Harden's matchup distortion will shock the Spurs in game one. Sweet chin music- hit them right in the mouth. The Thunder will roll into the NBA Finals from there, possibly with the torch in hand.


Pick: Thunder in 6 (Thunder take Game 1 as well)

Western Conference Second Round Playoff Preview

The Western Conference is wide open this year. Out are the champion Dallas Mavericks and the darkhorse Memphis Grizzlies. Just two L.A. teams, an up-and-coming superpower, and the old guard remain.

San Antonio Spurs (1) vs. Los Angeles Clippers (5)

Two of the best ever from Wake Forest.

The Clippers have youth, size, and the best player on the floor in Chris Paul. In some ways, it appears the Clippers are the perfect team for the job of taking the number one seed out. San Antonio is older, slower, and smaller. Feast on the offensive glass and exceed Tony Parker's production with CP3's, and you have yourself an upset.

But it's not that simple. The Spurs have superior health, home-court advantage, and, to put it nicely, a significant edge at head coach. They also have 3-point shooting. San Antonio ranked first in the NBA in 3-point percentage this season and continued hitting from deep against Utah at a 40.7 percent clip. The Clippers, nearly last in the league at defending the 3-point line during the regular season, closed out on Memphis well, but Memphis's weakness is shooting 3's, whereas it's a strength for the Spurs. The Clippers don't have the size or the consistent smarts to defend San Antonio's spread-floor offense.

With that spacing, Parker and Manu Ginobili will carve San Antonio up. The only way the Clippers contend with that duo is if Eric Bledsoe plays like he did in game 7 against Memphis. Tim Duncan should also get his on the green DeAndre Jordan, who will likely be in foul trouble for much of the series.

The best thing L.A. has going is Blake Griffin will likely put up better numbers than the 18 points and 6.4 rebounds he did against Zach Randolph. His production and offensive rebounding, as well as Kenyon Martin's and Reggie Evans's ability to drag the Spurs to hell, will keep this series close. Chris Paul will dominate as per usual.

The series will be close, but the Spurs have too many built-in advantages going in.


Pick: Spurs in 6


Oklahoma City Thunder (2) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (3)

The Western Conference matchup everybody wanted to see. After the Thunder thrashed the team that trounced them a year ago, they get their revenge match against the Lakers, who bounced them from the playoffs two years ago.

Kobe Bryant and Kevin Durant are two of the league's best pure scorers.

Derek Fisher vs. Kobe Bryant. Metta World Peace vs. James Harden. Kendrick Perkins vs. Pau Gasol, whom he's had words with in the media, and Andrew Bynum, whom he battled in the 2010 NBA Finals. Oh, and there's Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, too.

World Peace locked down Durantula two years ago, but World Peace was Ron Artest and Durantula was a young scorer in his first playoff series. Durant is now a seasoned 3-time scoring champ with experience in the Western Conference Finals. He won't go off for 40 each game, but he'll be a consistent scoring presence.

Westbrook and Harden will determine the series for OKC. If they can effectively do what Ty Lawson and Danilo Gallinari could not- that is, initiate plays in the halfcourt and score efficiently with the clock winding down- then the Thunder offense will be lethal enough to win. Bryant has slowed Westbrook in the past, but not this version of Westbrook. How does L.A. defend OKC when they put Harden, Durant, and Westbrook on the court? That was Dallas's issue, and Jason Terry got torched. Can Ramon Sessions and Steve Blake do any better?

Gasol will likely dominate Serge Ibaka, who is a poor post defender. Bynum's offense is the bigger variable; L.A. is at its best when Bynum is scoring efficiently and the Lakers get to defend in the half-court. OKC will destroy them if they get in transition, so L.A. needs to create space for both 7-footers to go to work.

In the end, OKC's fast, tall perimeter double teams will likely make entry-passes too difficult, and Bryant will need to take a lot of shots. Bryant is an amazing player, but it's too much to ask to cover up all of his team's flaws at his age against a young Thunder team.

This series will end in five, but it won't feel easy. This will be a great matchup.


Pick: Thunder in 5

Western Conference First Round Playoff Preview

Here is a preview of the first round of the Western Conference playoffs.

San Antonio Spurs (1) vs. Utah Jazz (8)


Utah has youth, size, and dominant offensive rebounding (second in the league); it's easy to think Spurs vs. Grizzlies 2011 all over again. However, there are major differences this year: Utah is a below average defensive team (19th in the league), and the Spurs have a healthy Manu Ginobili.

One more time?

Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap, Enes Kanter, and Derrick Favors will cause problems for the Spurs, but Jefferson is easier for Tim Duncan to guard than Zach Randolph. Jefferson is the best scoring option on the team, like Randolph was for Memphis, but Duncan was relegated to guarding a less important Marc Gasol last year because of Randolph's unrelenting face-up game. TD can handle Jefferson's low-post game.

As tempting as it is to make the call for an upset again, it isn't happening this year. Utah won't be able to slow down San Antonio's offense.

Pick: San Antonio Spurs


Oklahoma City Thunder (2) vs. Dallas Mavericks (7)

Dirk and KD are elite offensive players.

In last year's Western Conference Finals, the Mavericks beat the Thunder in five games because the lineup of Dirk Nowitzki, Tyson Chandler, Shawn Marion, Jason Kidd, and Jason Terry meshed as perfectly as a five-man unit realistically could. Chandler is out of the equation now, and his supposed replacement, Lamar Odom, isn't going to play for Dallas anymore. Chandler occupied Kendrick Perkins, Serge Ibaka, and Nick Collison last season, which allowed Dallas's perimeter threats to go off. Now, those bigs can help when Dirk or Jet drive.

The Maverick offense, normally a staple in the top 10, was ranked 22nd this year. Without an ultra-efficient offense, Dallas's defense, though supposedly improved from last season, will surrender too many fast-break points to the young Thunder. Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and James Harden should be able to feast on Nowitzki's and Brendan Haywood's pick-n-roll defense.

Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder


Los Angeles Lakers (3) vs. Denver Nuggets (6)

Sessions needs to perform well.

If it weren't for Ramon Sessions, this would be a sure upset for Denver. Ty Lawson would have torched L.A.'s pick-n-roll defense while Arron Afflalo would have shadowed an overworked Kobe Bryant enough to win. Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol wouldn't see the ball with Kobe gunning and Derek Fisher flopping.

Sessions changes the game. His ability to deliver the ball to the All-NBA-caliber 7-footers allows L.A. to dominate the inside matchup, which means less fast-breaking for the deep, energetic Nuggets. Denver doesn't have a single big man than can contend with Bynum or Gasol, and that's a damning matchup disadvantage.

Pick: Los Angeles Lakers


Memphis Grizzlies (4) vs. Los Angeles Clippers (5)


This is the most difficult matchup to assess because of injury variables. Is Zach Randolph back to form? Is Chris Paul's hamstring going to limit him?

CP3 's health is the most important variable in the series.

Randolph and Gasol vs. Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan is the frontcourt matchup of the first round; the teams are incredibly close when it comes to rebounding on both sides of the floor. The Clippers struggle stopping teams, but the Grizz are a below-average offensive team. Memphis led the league in causing turnovers (.163 TOV% for opponents), and Gasol can defend interior scorers.

But L.A.'s number four-ranked offense doesn't turn the ball over (.127 TOV%) thanks to CP3 (2.1 turnovers per game), and they don't rely on a post scorer. Instead, the Clippers attack with the Paul/Griffin pick-n-roll. If Paul is healthy, Memphis will have a hard time stopping the Clippers.

Pick: Los Angeles Clippers

Click here to see the first round Eastern Conference matchups!

Russell Westbrook and Creating "Luck"

Russell Westbrook is an apex predator. Give him a straight line to the basket- even the slightest slit through a defense- and the alpha athlete of the NBA will lock in on the rim and ferociously attack, concluding his assault with a thunderous dunk.

That's the instinctual, aggressive side of Westbrook.

With RW, it's not just the dunks anymore.

But there's another, more controlled side of the point guard's game that has been in the works for quite a while now. Slowly but surely, Westbrook has been developing habits such as recognizing when his teammates are in rhythm, taking a patient approach to getting good shots for himself, and setting up the offense without the intent of gaining a stat (field goal, free throws, or an assist) for himself to conclude the possession. He took a statistical quantum leap in his third year but is taking an incremental yet no less important leap this year as far as providing what his team needs.

Kevin Durant is the Thunder's Constant, the consistent provider of efficiently scored points. Although Durant himself has made leaps as far as creating shots for himself, he isn't a primary creator. As a perimeter scorer, he belongs in the score-in-the-flow category, though again, he has made improvements.

Westbrook can be the wild card, the push-us-over-the-top creator of variance and "luck," the player whom the opposition plans for yet realizes that surrendering an explosive offensive performance isn't always in their control. He's always had a game tailor-made for being that type of player. It's an advantage of behaving with a "survival of the fittest, only the strong dunk" attitude.

But as great as Westbrook was last year, he had the propensity to shoot his team out of games as much as he had the ability to shoot them over the top. That's not creating "luck." That's gambling, and when a team already has a player as consistent as Durant, it's unnecessary.

What the Thunder need is what this calmer Westbrook has become. RW has upped his scoring volume this season from 21.9 to 24.2 points per game, all the while scoring more efficiently than ever before (55.2 percent True Shooting). His assists have dropped from 8.2 to 5.5 per game, but that's more a function of issuing the ball to James Harden and Durant to accommodate their respective ball-handling and improved iso scoring capabilities. He has improved his ability to play off of others.

And that's why defenses are having a much harder time corralling him. Westbrook is shooting at career-high percentages from 3-9 feet, 10-15 feet, and 16-23 feet, all the while shooting the same or a greater volume from those spots on the floor compared to 2011. Perhaps most importantly, he's developed a potent 3-point shot. He's assisted on 45.8 percent of his 3's, but he has also more than doubled his volume of total attempts, meaning he's even more of a threat off the dribble from deep.

Oklahoma City is ranked first in the NBA in offensive rating this year, and Westbrook's change in behavior is a contributing factor in the team's offensive improvement. He's using his creative ability and energy not to gamble but to take responsible risks at appropriate times in games. It's a much more useful approach, especially come playoff time when he can create that "luck," that variance when necessary, and push his team over the top.

Midseason Trade for MVP of the Decade

Kendrick Perkins might be the NBA’s MVP of the next 10 years.

 

Kendrick's role is that of mentor and protector on OKC. 

He’s never been an all-star or gotten any individual awards.  He’s never led the league in a statistic.  And he certainly has never won the MVP award. 

And yet- I just made that quirky statement about K-Perk that at first, second and third glance looks like the hermit of all basketball-themed leads.  It doesn’t belong anywhere. 

Don’t haze or grill the lonely line.  I’ll be the defense lawyer of said statement (nonexistent LSAT scores notwithstanding). 

Perkins was part of a midseason trade that sent him and Nate Robinson from Boston to Oklahoma City for Jeff Green and Nenad Krstic.  Immediately, Boston was shaken to its core.  The vaunted starting lineup that had never lost a playoff series when healthy had their brutish enforcer jettisoned for backups while his backup, Shaquille O’Neal, was stuck on the bench with an injury.  Suddenly, Ray Allen, who owes the extension of his career as a productive star to Perkins thanks to his fabulous semi-legal screens, didn’t have his personal chauffeur showing him the clear path to the 3-point line.  Rajon Rondo didn’t have his big brother.  Kevin Garnett, the master of horizontal defense, didn’t have his vertical brick wall counterpart covering the paint for him.  Boston was 41-14 before the trade and 15-12 after it. 

Meanwhile, Perkins helped ensconce a defensive mentality for the Thunder that balanced the team out.  With Perkins controlling the middle defensively, the Thunder’s agile and awesomely named forward, Serge Ibaka, got to play power forward, a position he is better suited for.  Despite being chiseled from stone, Ibaka is too lithe and doesn’t have the bulk necessary to play in Perkins’ heavyweight division.  The presence of Perkins enables Ibaka to roam around, block shots from the weak side, and use his quickness and vertical explosion to contest shots near the basket; Perkins does the sumo wrasslin’ and post defending and body blocking in the paint.  Along with a long, athletic perimeter defense, the two young bigs dominated defensively, helping the Thunder go 15-4 after the decade-altering trade. 

Perkins is the perfect fit for the Thunder.  On a team built through draft picks, Perkins is the only major piece gathered via trade.  He brings to the young, inexperienced Thunder a package of information- a DNA sample, if you will- of championship pedigree and swagger, knowledge he gained from Boston’s wise Big Three of Garnett, Allen and Paul Pierce after they left their prime years behind and amassed themselves together for a ring. 

He’s also the perfect fit on the court.  Those Wes Unseldian screens he throws at opponents that Allen loved are perfect for freeing up Kevin Durant off-ball and James Harden or Russell Westbrook in the pick-n-roll.  He shoots a high percentage, recognizes what he can and can’t do, and most importantly, he makes swing passes; swing passes make champions.  Defensively, he’s got his team’s back.

Oklahoma City is built to win playoff games.  They have their offensive constants in the ever-productive Durant and the electrically charged alpha-athlete Westbrook, with Harden as a solid third option.  Defensively, they can wrap around the court like vines on a recently abandoned house- they make you look worse than you are, which is exactly what defense is about.  Perkins plays the role of the house maintenance dude who was just let go- he lets the vines pervade freely.  With the basket protected, they suffuse and suffocate their opponents in the half court, which is something Boston prided itself on.  Only not anymore. 

Without a legitimate center, Boston folded to the Miami Heat in a five-game semifinal.  LeBron James and Dwyane Wade averaged over 58 points per game combined in the series, running unimpeded through Boston’s defense.  Maybe a healthy Shaq could have helped.  Maybe Miami wins with Perkins there anyway.  But not in five games.  Not with such dual dominance by Miami’s slashing superstars.  Miami was supposed to assume control of the Eastern Conference at some point, but such a sudden usurpation means that perhaps Miami is ready to win it all right now, that the window through which James and Wade can add to their legacies is wider than before.                       

Meanwhile, Oklahoma City has flourished in the playoffs.  They easily dispatched a hot Denver team by outclassing them with their top-end talent, and currently have a 3-2 lead over a tough Memphis squad that ended an era by defeating the San Antonio Spurs in the first round.  Such feats are hard to envisage without Perkins residing over the paint as an ironically cool, calm, collected bouncer.  Imagine Serge having to fortify the Thunder defense while bodying up on Nene Hilario and Kenyon Martin in the first round, and then Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph in the second round. 

Durant has a team around him now that permits him to compete for championships as early as this year.  Mind you, he’s 22 years old; a whole decade waits for him as he builds upon his legacy.  The kicker is that his team is essentially as young as he is.  If Ibaka can develop into a 14 points per game power forward with a mid-range jumper, he’ll shore up the team’s deficiency in volume frontcourt scoring.  Then, you need to watch out.  Yes, you. 

The Perkins move changed things in the NBA.  I suppose his presence, or lack thereof, started the chain of events last year when he was injured in the NBA Finals.  After losing Perkins, Boston was manhandled on the boards by the Lakers, which proved to be their demise in game seven.  This year, Perkins’ exit proved devastating for Boston; the team’s window may have shut, which in turn opens windows (Windex must love this house) for younger teams like Miami and Chicago to rule on high earlier than expected.  Oklahoma City can inherit winning ways that Perkins exposes them to so they can potentially bypass the painful learning curve that entails losing a lot before winning a lot. 

James, Wade, Durant and 2011 MVP Derrick Rose have an opportunity to seize control of the league right now.  Winning changes the perception of players, which in turns leads to more All-NBA teams and MVP awards- legitimately deserved or not (see Kobe Bryant’s all-defensive first team selection this year).  That affects all-time rankings.  Reputations are at stake, as are legacies.

And it’s all because of a center who has averaged 6.4 points and 6.1 rebounds for his career.  Your Most Valuable Player of the next decade- Kendrick Perkins.  I rest my case.