Russell Westbrook and Creating "Luck"

Russell Westbrook is an apex predator. Give him a straight line to the basket- even the slightest slit through a defense- and the alpha athlete of the NBA will lock in on the rim and ferociously attack, concluding his assault with a thunderous dunk.

That's the instinctual, aggressive side of Westbrook.

With RW, it's not just the dunks anymore.

But there's another, more controlled side of the point guard's game that has been in the works for quite a while now. Slowly but surely, Westbrook has been developing habits such as recognizing when his teammates are in rhythm, taking a patient approach to getting good shots for himself, and setting up the offense without the intent of gaining a stat (field goal, free throws, or an assist) for himself to conclude the possession. He took a statistical quantum leap in his third year but is taking an incremental yet no less important leap this year as far as providing what his team needs.

Kevin Durant is the Thunder's Constant, the consistent provider of efficiently scored points. Although Durant himself has made leaps as far as creating shots for himself, he isn't a primary creator. As a perimeter scorer, he belongs in the score-in-the-flow category, though again, he has made improvements.

Westbrook can be the wild card, the push-us-over-the-top creator of variance and "luck," the player whom the opposition plans for yet realizes that surrendering an explosive offensive performance isn't always in their control. He's always had a game tailor-made for being that type of player. It's an advantage of behaving with a "survival of the fittest, only the strong dunk" attitude.

But as great as Westbrook was last year, he had the propensity to shoot his team out of games as much as he had the ability to shoot them over the top. That's not creating "luck." That's gambling, and when a team already has a player as consistent as Durant, it's unnecessary.

What the Thunder need is what this calmer Westbrook has become. RW has upped his scoring volume this season from 21.9 to 24.2 points per game, all the while scoring more efficiently than ever before (55.2 percent True Shooting). His assists have dropped from 8.2 to 5.5 per game, but that's more a function of issuing the ball to James Harden and Durant to accommodate their respective ball-handling and improved iso scoring capabilities. He has improved his ability to play off of others.

And that's why defenses are having a much harder time corralling him. Westbrook is shooting at career-high percentages from 3-9 feet, 10-15 feet, and 16-23 feet, all the while shooting the same or a greater volume from those spots on the floor compared to 2011. Perhaps most importantly, he's developed a potent 3-point shot. He's assisted on 45.8 percent of his 3's, but he has also more than doubled his volume of total attempts, meaning he's even more of a threat off the dribble from deep.

Oklahoma City is ranked first in the NBA in offensive rating this year, and Westbrook's change in behavior is a contributing factor in the team's offensive improvement. He's using his creative ability and energy not to gamble but to take responsible risks at appropriate times in games. It's a much more useful approach, especially come playoff time when he can create that "luck," that variance when necessary, and push his team over the top.

Gauging L.A.'s Chances in May

It's been years since a writer had to clarify which L.A. team is the subject of an article with the above title. Unfortunately, the Clippers aren't laughable anymore, but they also aren't getting this article's attention. It's the Lakers. Even in a successful Clipper season- it's always the Lakers.

"What I'm saying is...I...want...shots."

The Lakers likely finalized their roster with deadline trades that netted them Ramon Sessions and future cap space in the form of Jordan Hill. The team's chances come playoff time will rest in the hands of Sessions, Andrew Bynum, Pau Gasol, and Kobe Bryant, as well as their double agents on competing contenders- Lamar Odom on Dallas and Derek Fisher on OKC (neither of whom are doing a good job of hiding that their missions are to cripple their current teams).

Even with the Sessions acquisition, L.A. is an old team in a condensed season, with a new coach who has broken away from the triangle offense in favor of a Kobe-centric offense that has seen the aging Mamba strike far too many times for his own good this season. How many more strikes does Kobe have left? The 40-point streaks are a testament to his skills and hard work, but I'm sure Laker fans would have been okay with surrendering a few regular season games for an invigorated Bryant late in the season.

Some of Bryant's stats have been trending downward: he's shooting below 42 percent since the start of February, and his assists have decreased since that point as well (5.4 to 4.1). Getting used to the presence of a point guard who can actually set Kobe and the others up is a point in L.A.'s favor, as hopefully, Kobe doesn't need to carry such a ball-handling/creating load for the team.

The Lakers are ranked 15th in offensive rating and are a horrendous shooting team (31.4 percent from 3-point range, 27th in the league), but they have efficient big men who will cause mismatches in the postseason. Bynum's career year- he's averaging 18.3 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 2 blocks per game with a true shooting percentage of 61.4- is more impressive when you think about the lack of spacing L.A. provides him. If he can continue to handle his fair share of the scoring load, L.A. can be dangerous. Outside of Dwight Howard, there probably isn't a better low-post scoring center in the league today. Sessions and Bryant need to deliver him the rock.

Defensively, the Lakers rank 11th in the league right now and do a surprisingly good job of defending the 3-point line (4th in percentage against) despite having older wing players. Will that defense carry over into the playoffs? Last year, Dallas destroyed L.A. with the 3-ball by moving the ball faster than L.A.'s older legs.

The Lakers have a sturdy defense based around the length of Bynum/Gasol, and they'll have a steady offense if they can properly incorporate Sessions into the mix. An inspired surprise performance by a role player- perhaps rookie Andrew Goudelock- would definitely help in May.

More than likely, if L.A. is going to make the NBA Finals, they'll have to get through the Thunder. Defending the Kevin Durant/Russell Westbrook/James Harden/James Harden's beard quartet appears a daunting task for an aging team, but Gasol/Bynum is a great counter, especially against a talented but underwhelming OKC frontcourt.

South Beach Case Study: Miami Before the Stretch Run

Despite receiving less media attention this season, the Miami Heat get more and more intriguing from a historical perspective.  

Last year, I wrote a series of posts on the South Beach Case Study (SBCS), aka, the first-of-its-kind experiment that is the Miami Heat, led by LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh.  Never have three stars come together in the middle of their primes in hopes of winning a title.  Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, and Paul Pierce were grizzled vets with playoff scars.  Elgin Baylor, Jerry West, and Wilt Chamberlain were the same way nearly 40 years before Boston's trio connected.

Dwyane Wade and LeBron James.  

What, if any, transformation has Miami undergone since last season?   

Last year, Miami won 58 regular season games and led the league in SRS (6.58), then blasted through the Eastern Conference before falling to Dallas in the NBA Finals.  Their success was mainly tied to James, Wade and Bosh doing incredible amounts of heavy lifting on both ends of the floor.  Considering the team had no depth, no point guard or center, and injuries to their best peripheral players, Mike Miller and Udonis Haslem, the fact that the three amigos were able to lift Miami to rank third in offensive rating and fifth in defensive rating is a testament to their high-end talent.

Currently, Miami sits at 34-11 (Second in SRS at 8), which would be good for a 62-win pace in a traditional, non-screwed up regular season.  Rookie Norris Cole, an improved Mario Chalmers, veteran Shane Battier, and healthy Miller and Haslem have contributed to the improvement, as has a more open offense that isn't predicated on star monopolization of the ball.  The team ranks second in offensive rating and sixth in defensive rating, although they haven't been defending the 3-point shot quite as well this year (36.5 percent this year vs. 34.5 percent last year).

What's scary for the rest of the NBA is how Dwyane Wade has seen a significant decrease in his minutes and raw box score production.  In 2011, Wade averaged 25.5 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 4.6 assists in 37.2 minutes per game.  In 2012, he has averaged 22.9 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 4.8 assists in 32.9 minutes per game.  On a per-minute basis, Wade is actually more productive in most categories this season.

That Miami has been able to deliver an even stronger regular season than last year despite Wade doing less heavy lifting indicates the team is now much more than just a talented group of individuals- they are gelling as a team.  Being able to reserve energy stores for the playoffs is good for the 30-year-old Wade, and it should be able to extend his career longer, too.

What happens when Wade starts playing 38-40 minutes per game in the playoffs?  How does it change Miami?  Perhaps they are concealing an even higher gear?  

Miami is still a donut team- no, that's not a nod to Eddy Curry.  But the most dangerous current contenders are led by perimeter-oriented players, and that bodes well for a perimeter corps that shut down Jeremy Lin a few weeks ago and Derrick Rose in the Eastern Conference Finals last year.

The Heat are in the stretch run now.  Come this postseason, we'll be able to observe the full potential of this core, and more SBCS questions should be answered.