South Beach Case Study: Miami Before the Stretch Run

Despite receiving less media attention this season, the Miami Heat get more and more intriguing from a historical perspective.  

Last year, I wrote a series of posts on the South Beach Case Study (SBCS), aka, the first-of-its-kind experiment that is the Miami Heat, led by LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh.  Never have three stars come together in the middle of their primes in hopes of winning a title.  Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, and Paul Pierce were grizzled vets with playoff scars.  Elgin Baylor, Jerry West, and Wilt Chamberlain were the same way nearly 40 years before Boston's trio connected.

Dwyane Wade and LeBron James.  

What, if any, transformation has Miami undergone since last season?   

Last year, Miami won 58 regular season games and led the league in SRS (6.58), then blasted through the Eastern Conference before falling to Dallas in the NBA Finals.  Their success was mainly tied to James, Wade and Bosh doing incredible amounts of heavy lifting on both ends of the floor.  Considering the team had no depth, no point guard or center, and injuries to their best peripheral players, Mike Miller and Udonis Haslem, the fact that the three amigos were able to lift Miami to rank third in offensive rating and fifth in defensive rating is a testament to their high-end talent.

Currently, Miami sits at 34-11 (Second in SRS at 8), which would be good for a 62-win pace in a traditional, non-screwed up regular season.  Rookie Norris Cole, an improved Mario Chalmers, veteran Shane Battier, and healthy Miller and Haslem have contributed to the improvement, as has a more open offense that isn't predicated on star monopolization of the ball.  The team ranks second in offensive rating and sixth in defensive rating, although they haven't been defending the 3-point shot quite as well this year (36.5 percent this year vs. 34.5 percent last year).

What's scary for the rest of the NBA is how Dwyane Wade has seen a significant decrease in his minutes and raw box score production.  In 2011, Wade averaged 25.5 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 4.6 assists in 37.2 minutes per game.  In 2012, he has averaged 22.9 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 4.8 assists in 32.9 minutes per game.  On a per-minute basis, Wade is actually more productive in most categories this season.

That Miami has been able to deliver an even stronger regular season than last year despite Wade doing less heavy lifting indicates the team is now much more than just a talented group of individuals- they are gelling as a team.  Being able to reserve energy stores for the playoffs is good for the 30-year-old Wade, and it should be able to extend his career longer, too.

What happens when Wade starts playing 38-40 minutes per game in the playoffs?  How does it change Miami?  Perhaps they are concealing an even higher gear?  

Miami is still a donut team- no, that's not a nod to Eddy Curry.  But the most dangerous current contenders are led by perimeter-oriented players, and that bodes well for a perimeter corps that shut down Jeremy Lin a few weeks ago and Derrick Rose in the Eastern Conference Finals last year.

The Heat are in the stretch run now.  Come this postseason, we'll be able to observe the full potential of this core, and more SBCS questions should be answered.  

Top-10 MVP Candidates at the All-Star Break

With the league's premier ballers playing in this weekend's All-Star Game, it feels like a good time to begin thinking about MVP candidates.  While there is no clear-cut frontrunner, a few players have risen above the pack.

Derrick Rose was a deserving MVP last year.  

My definition of the MVP, which I thought about last year, is...

"An NBA MVP needs to have the perfect blend of being a great player, having a great supporting cast that allows the player to flourish by allowing him to carry the maximum possible weight for the team, have that supporting cast give enough help to maximize the results of his efforts (and have those results look good relative to the league's other teams), and not have a similarly talented base, or Constant, on his team.  It's incredibly difficult to win titles this way.  MVP winners usually aren't on title teams. It takes one hell of a blend to accomplish that dish."


So let's be clear: An MVP isn't necessarily the best player (LeBron James), the best story (Jeremy Lin), or the guy on the best team (James or Kevin Durant).


For now, my rankings are as follows:


1.)  Kevin Durant-  He's the Constant on the West's best.  OKC has the second-best offense in the league, which is based on a perimeter-oriented attack led by KD, Russell Westbrook, and James Harden.  The Bearded One and RW handle a lot of the playmaking duties, but without Durant's scoring, OKC's offense would be incredibly predictable, as they wouldn't be able to start an attack inside the 3-point line.  Durant is also the team's best defensive rebounder with a 20.6 rebound rate.    

2.)  LeBron James-  He is the best player in the league, and he's on the best team in the league.  The only reason why I can't put him above Durant right now is because he is flanked by an all-star backcourt player AND an all-star frontcourt player.  Dwyane Wade might not be having his best statistical season, but he's still proven to be an offensive anchor.  Wade's missed games do give me pause, however, as LBJ was incredibly valuable with Wade out.  It's very close between James and Durant.

3.)  Kobe Bryant-  He just keeps plugging away.  The Laker perimeter squad sans Bryant is arguably the worst perimeter corps in the league.  Bryant needs to carry such an offensive load, from bringing the ball up to spreading the floor to creating shots for himself/others to volume scoring.  Without him, Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol would never even see the ball (ironic, isn't it?).

4.)  Chris Paul-  CP3 is after the Mamba mainly because his team has such depth at the point guard position.  I mean they lost Paul's backup to injury, and they still have Mo Williams coming in to spell him.  Still, Paul is playing like the best PG in the league.

5.)  Dwight Howard-  Dwight is a weak candidate right now.  Aside from the turmoil he is partially responsible for in Orlando, it seems he has also regressed in the scoring department (less volume and less efficiency compared to last year) and on D.  Howard usually has the Magic in the top five on D, but Orlando is closer to the league average this year.

Parker and Westbrook are having monster seasons.

6.)  Tony Parker-  San Antonio is first in their division and boasts a stellar SRS rating of 5.01, good for sixth in the league.  Parker has catalyzed S.A.'s offense without backcourt mate Manu Ginobili, an impressive feat in my book.

7.)  Russell Westbrook-  In the past, Westbrook has been Rondo-lite in his ability to hurt his team's offense as much as he helped his team's offense.  But the alpha-athlete of the NBA has the Thunder rolling at a frenetic pace and is playing better than ever.  I wouldn't be surprised to see him climb in the rankings.  

8.)  Derrick Rose-  Barring additional injuries, the other alpha-athlete will likely leapfrog the two point guards in front of him.  He has missed some time this year, and his team has done all right without him.  Personally, I do still think that over the long haul, Chicago would be incredibly screwed without Rose since he probably has the greatest offensive load of any perimeter player except maybe Kobe Bryant and Tony Parker.

9.)  Dwyane Wade-  He lands at number nine simply because of injury, decreased minutes, and the fact that he plays with somebody who plays his role (perimeter offensive attacker/creator) better than he does.  Still, Wade is arguably the second-best player in the league, and he's on the best team in the NBA.

10.)  Dirk Nowitzki-  After a sluggish start, Dirk seems back on track.  Despite Dallas having a lot of depth, Dirk is still by far the only player on the team who can be called an anchor.  Despite Tyson Chandler's departure, Nowitzki has his team in a solid position out West.

On the outside:

Blake Griffin - He's arguably the best PF in the league.  Plus he did this.  

Jeremy Lin-  I love Lin, but he isn't on my list yet because he hasn't been playing major minutes for that long.

The South Beach Case Study: Year One Complete

The first year of the South Beach Case Study concluded with a compelling NBA Finals that saw the Dallas Mavericks defeat the Miami Heat in six games.  Although Miami- specifically LeBron James- mightily disappointed in the Finals, don't be quick to call the experiment a failure.   

1. This team was designed by Pat Riley, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, James, and according to the media, Satan himself, to be a contender for many years.  The case study is in its infancy. 
2. If James plays half as well in the Finals as he had all season, the first year of this experiment would have concluded with a championship.     

Calling the 2011 season a rough start to the experiment in terms of variables understates how flawed Miami's team was constructed around the Big Three.  Udonis Haslem and Mike Miller, the team's fourth and fifth best players, were injured throughout the year and missed the habit-forming process that is the NBA regular season.  The Three Kings were flanked by limited one-way players, rusting veterans, and zero-way piles of rust (I'm looking at you, Mike Bibby).  Yet, even with their heavy lifters needing time to gel and redundancy getting in the way of a good time, Miami won 58 games and vanquished every Eastern Conference foe in the playoffs.

From left:  Chris Bosh, LeBron James and Dwyane Wade. 

What have we learned?  I'll posit questions from the beginning of the year and briefly give conclusions.

Can two ball-dominant slashers, James and Wade, work together?  Yes, but not perfectly.  An inside/outside combination always works better because it's more balanced.  James and Wade tweaked their off-ball games this year to feature more cutting, spot-up shooting and reading of offensive rebounding lanes.  However, old habits crept through at times, displaying themselves in the form of the two augmenting the playbook to feature "isolation and hold the ball for 18 seconds before acting" sets.  Not very effective basketball.

 Will the egos of the three amigos collide or will they remember the sacrifices they promised to make in order to play with each other?  To put it simply, they remembered.  James and Wade appeared to share the ball in crunch time, too.   

What about substitution patterns and minutes distributions? Will their careers be extended because they don't have to lift their teams alone anymore?  Well, they carried a heavy burden this year.  Spoelstra couldn't afford to really rest his prime players, and without a true post defender, the three stars expended a lot of energy making the defense elite (fifth in defensive rating).  

What happens to a superstar's stats when he isn't playing in a single superstar-centric offense anymore?  The offensive stats went down a bit for Wade and James and a lot for Bosh.  This is related to the first question.  When the ball-handlers go to iso-ball, they waste the help they signed up to play with.

The team would be best served obtaining a point guard able and willing to take command of the offense from James and Wade.  If Miami runs some actual plays that turn James and Wade into finishers, Miami's offense could get to an all-time level.   

The SBCS gets the summer off.  Year two will begin...well, with the lockout looming, that's as unpredictable as South Beach itself.       

NBA Finals 2011: The More Things Change...

The Miami Heat vs. the Dallas Mavericks- round two.  It's five years later, and we're back to the exact match up.  It's five years later, but Miami and Dallas seem 20 years removed from where they were in 2006.  Has an NBA Finals ever had so many classic conflicts, parallels, and role reversals as this year's Finals?

The anti-climatic answer which will undoubtedly deflate the serious tone I was setting and bring levity to this opening is a simple "Yes, perhaps last year when L.A. faced Boston."  The storyline was that L.A. was out for revenge for 2008, this time armed with Ron Artest and Andrew Bynum to combat Boston's physicality.  It worked when L.A. destroyed Boston on the glass in game seven, earning them their redemption.  Boston finished the 2010 series without their brute center, Kendrick Perkins, just like L.A. with Bynum two years prior.

Round 2: "I want a good, clean fight." 

Still, this year's matchup compels the basketball lover's mind.  You saw it coming in the Conference Finals when both teams went up 3-1.  Your mind wondered forward and you started thinking about LeBron James vs. Dirk Nowitzki in a fourth quarter, salivating at the chance to watch somebody shut down Dirk or torch LeBron.  Then you started thinking that it couldn't happen because if it did, somebody loses.  The way both are performing, losing seems out of the question.  It's like when you compare John Wall's dougie against Skip Bayless' dougie.  OK, maybe not.

Anyway, here are some particulars and perpendiculars:        

• Take a look at the center position.  Erick Dampier- the Erick Dampier- has switched teams, a cataclysmic and physics-altering shift in the NBA landscape .  This time, Dallas is the team with the two-headed center; Brendan Haywood and Tyson Chandler aren't Shaquille O'Neal and Alonzo Mourning, but you get the idea.

• The two teams combined to punch out the youngins who led Team USA 2010 to victory, Kevin Durant and Derrick Rose, in the Conference Finals.  Rose won MVP and Durant has won two scoring titles, yet the older guard taxed the rebels their dues before team success.

• Both teams stomped on last year's NBA Finalists in the second round.  They also defeated the Blazers and Sixers, both of which have the letter "P" as the first letter of their respective cities (it's not the best I can do- I promise).

•  Both James and Nowitzki saw a dip in their regular season raw numbers compared to previous years, yet might be playing better than ever.  Both have changed their games to combat perceived past weaknesses in their play:  Nowitzki's mid-post game allows him to dominate smaller defenders, and LeBron's mid-range game is now elite.

• James and Nowitzki made the Finals in consecutive years.  They both had their legacies tarnished by embarrassing defeats, resulting in the last titles for the great bigs of the era, Duncan and Shaq (with help from Dwyane Wade of course).  Both are seeking vengeance against the NBA Finals itself.

• It was possible last summer that Dirk could have joined the Heat, likely in place of Bosh.  Bosh has played well in these playoffs despite my T.V. heckling, but could you imagine if Dirk landed on this team instead of Bosh?

Where the individual players are in their career, and how they came together, is probably the most interesting subplot.  Again, 2006 comes into play.  In '06, Miami was in win-now mode, saturated with veterans and ring-chasers like Antoine Walker and Gary Payton and coached by legend Pat Riley.  This version's core is made up of younger players in their prime who came together, at the beckoning of Riley, to form a dynasty.  They are coached by a more modern tactician in Erik Spoelstra.

Dallas has a contrasting narrative.  They were young in '06, featuring a seemingly prime Dirk with Devin Harris, Josh Howard and prime Jason Terry as his unproven supporting cast.  The current incarnation has players that can tell a common theme- "I lost my chance before, and I'm hungrier than ever."  Shawn Marion  with Phoenix, Jason Kidd with New Jersey, Chandler with New Orleans in 2008, Peja Stojakovic with Sacramento and Terry and Nowitzki with Dallas have all had their hearts broken.

LeBron James and Dirk Nowitzki will meet in the NBA Finals.

 Let's get to some basketball.  I thought OKC would do a better job of contesting Dallas on the perimeter, but Dallas hurt them on the secondary break as OKC began to play lazy defense after they turned the ball over 86 times per game.  Miami has similar length and even more speed than OKC on the perimeter, and they are much better at defending in transition and on secondary breaks because they seemingly don't care about hitting the offensive glass. 

This will be the key to the series.  How Dirk is defended isn't what decides this series- LeBron might guard Dirk in spots, but that matchup is definitely going to get more hype as a deciding factor this week than it deserves.  Dirk will get his, but will the peripheral Mavericks get theirs when they need to put the ball on the floor after Miami closes out on them.  That's the key variable for Dallas.

Miami can go big on the perimeter, which means trouble for Dallas when Miami is on offense.  It's Dallas who is going to have trouble closing out on Miami's perimeter players.  J.J. Barea and Terry are too small to take on James/Wade/Mike Miller.  Kidd can decently defend when he has help behind him and can funnel, but what happens when he needs to close out on James or Wade and they get to have a step on the older Kidd?  What happens when Miami targets Nowitzki in the pick-n-roll like they did with Boozer?

Miami has a better chance of winning the series.  They have the top-end talent advantage, and after seeing how they closed out game four (that one play where Wade blocked and James dove...man) against Chicago, I'd say this team has the effort and chemistry to disrupt Dallas's primary variable- their peripheral perimeter players.

2011 is different from 2006:  Osama's been done taken care of, The Wire is gone and Louis C.K. thankfully has his own show.  Some things stay the same though.  Miami wins the title in six or seven.                  

ECF Preview: Battle of the Flawed Teams

Derrick Rose will need to step against Miami's lengthy defense. 

The Miami Heat and the Chicago Bulls are beginning their Eastern Conference Finals series as I type this.  I'm just going to quickly describe why I believe the Miami Heat are going to be victorious.

Miami's defense is the key.  Chicago's offense is incredibly flawed, relying on one player to do more heavy lifting than any team in recent memory.  Derrick Rose was my MVP, and as I said before, that isn't necessarily a good thing for Chicago's team success.  It's incredibly difficult to win a title if your team is so flawed that you require one player to do so much in a certain area of the game, regardless of how great that player is.  The Heat defense is so quick to react and so long on the perimeter that I can't see Chicago's offense having any continuity, meaning the Bulls will not perform well when they eventually call on their sixth and seventh best players to make big plays.  Luol Deng is the next best wing player Chicago has, but he doesn't handle the ball, and LeBron James has been playing great defense this year.  Statistically, the Bulls are poor when it comes to taking care of the ball- mainly because they have no ball-handlers aside from the MVP- and that means trouble against James and Dwyane Wade.

The Bulls can expose a Heat flaw, however.  Miami's defense is at its best when it has slender bodies in the middle that can move quickly and cover space- when they have their small lineup in.  The only thing the Bulls do above average is offensive rebound with tough guys like Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah; each of them should be able to push Joel Anthony and Chris Bosh around and score off putbacks in the paint.  That's how Chicago is going to stay in this series offensively.

Defensively, Chicago's players arrange themselves in unison beautifully to block a player's movement.  It's beautiful and it should make things difficult for James, Wade and Chris Bosh.  Miami's offensive output is going to rely on the trust James and Wade have in their teammates.  James needs to trust that when he passes to James Jones, Jones will either take the open shot or pass the ball to Wade, who will be set to attack a scrambled defense that James just put into chaos with a drive off a pick-n-roll.  It doesn't seem like the Heat have had a problem with this thus far, which is why I think Miami's offense will be just fine.  They have the two best offensive players in the series; all they need to do is not waste that talent advantage.

I'm taking Miami in six games.  Chicago doesn't have the interior isolation scorers necessary to take advantage of the Heat's biggest flaw.  Miami has the speed on defense that will expose Chicago's biggest flaw of being too reliant on one creator.  

Thoughts on the South Beach Experiment Thus Far

Many moons, months, and possibly eons ago, I wrote about an experiment- the South Beach Case Study.  The SBCS is based on the unusual alignment of stars (I don't get the fixation with astronomy either; please bear with me) that occurred last summer.  LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh- the "Three Kings"- came together to give us NBA fanatics a real life case study that could give answers to our astronomically divine inquiring minds- give yourselves a round of applause for having both a divine inquiring basketball mind and the patience to keep reading after my unfortunate attempt at rhyming.

The kingly test subjects. 

"Three superstars of this caliber have never played together at their absolute peak…The big questions are: can two ball-dominant slashers, James and Wade, work together? Will the egos of the three amigos collide or will they remember the sacrifices they promised to make in order to play with each other? What happens to a superstar's stats when he isn't playing in a single superstar-centric offense anymore? Who takes the last shot, Wade or James? What about substitution patterns and minutes distributions? Will their careers be extended because they don't have to lift their teams alone anymore?"

What has been answered through 58 wins, 24 losses, and a first round series victory over a solid Philadelphia team that wrecked my prediction of the matchup being "Boston vs. Atlanta in '08" all over again?  For one- no, Philly didn't match up to their top-end talent-centric opponent like Atlanta did.  But beyond that, we've secured our answers to a few of the pertinent questions listed above.  Or at least, this season gave us some indications.

All three players saw more losses than gains in both raw numbers and advanced numbers when compared to last year's production.  Bosh took the biggest hit; he went from 24 points and 10.8 rebounds per game to 18.7 and 8.3 rebounds per game.  His rebound rate, PER, WS/48, and TS% all dropped.  He played .2 minutes per game more than last year.

Wade's points and assists went from 26.6 and 6.5 per game to 25.5 and 4.6 per game.  His rebounding went up significantly, while his TS% went up to 58.1 percent.  He played .9 minutes more per game.  James saw his scoring average drop three points per game and his assists average drop 1.6 assists per game.  He saw a dip in just about every other stat except rebounding.  He played .2 minutes per game less this year.      

 Bosh's offensive numbers going down should have been easy to guess.  He played on a middling-at-best team that needed his production to compete.  Going from the first option to the third option is a drastic drop, too.

James and Wade were the guys who shouldered some massive loads.  Each was Atlas last year, carrying the world on his shoulders (That's it, I'm playing "Intergalactic" by Beastie Boys before I go to bed). 

Suddenly, they could share.  Sparingly, they let old habits get in the way (though it surely happened, especially at the start). Sullenly, opposing wing defenders prepared to take the duo on.

The minutes didn't decrease, but it does seem like the workload may have.  By all accounts, all three players played the best defense of their respective careers this year, which helped Miami rank fifth in team defensive rating.  Bosh needn't create as much by himself, - sounds like a hopeless and draining task if we're having a dirty mind- instead being used as a finisher.  Wade's scoring efficiency increased, and he was able to play more consistent defense in more minutes per game.  To me, James saw the greatest benefits from the decreased workload.  He was more aggressive on the offensive glass, set picks, used different parts of the floor better, and successfully played off another primary ball-handling attacker after admirably handing him the reins sometimes. 

We can now see how stats, roles and workloads are affected.  Their egos seem to have remained in check for the most part.  Questions regarding last shots, longer careers and true chemistry won't be fully answered until the team is healthy, the season ends, Pay Riley constructs the team with fewer holes and, ultimately, the players decide to retire.

As the SBCS enters phase/round two, I'll be previewing Miami vs. Boston.

My Pick for 2011 NBA MVP

The last three MVPs have gone to these two.

My butt is moving people and I'm sitting on the hot seat.  I'm boxing out the specter of the voters, positioning myself in their spot, and getting deep into this post.  Interior design is mine this time.  Call me the The Big Right Block Voter.

My 2011 NBA MVP is...going to be given at this post's conclusion, after I've figured out who it is.  Undecided is what I am at this point.  A decidedly victorious player may not ascend above the rest, but I'll try my best to unpack what an NBA MVP is and who is most deserving this year.  Choose the best answer.  I apologize to those losing electrolytes after flashing back to standardized testing.  Go drink Jordan's elixir.

What is, and isn't, an NBA MVP?  

An NBA MVP is the transcendental signifier of his particular team, the base upon which the concepts and principles of a successful team are presumed and carried out.  Being part of the equation for a team isn't enough to be MVP; the player needs to be the logic upon which the equation- the team's makeup itself- is based on.

It's kind of weird.  An NBA MVP needs to have the perfect blend of being a great player, having a great supporting cast that allows the player to flourish by allowing him to carry the maximum possible weight for the team, have that supporting cast give enough help to maximize the results of his efforts (and have those results look good relative to the league's other teams), and not have a similarly talented base, or constant, on his team.  It's incredibly difficult to win titles this way.  MVP winners usually aren't on title teams. It takes one hell of a blend to accomplish that dish.

The Most Valuable Player award is such a simple yet descriptive title for an achievement.  Beautiful language.  Refusing to put the word "best" into the title should make confusion regarding what the award represents dissipate.  Steve Nash may not have been a top five player in the league in 2005.  But he was more valuable to his team than anybody else was to theirs, which is why I had Nash as my MVP that season.

LeBron James has been the best player on the planet for three consecutive regular seasons, and a legitimate MVP candidate on his hilariously flawed 2009 and 2010 Cleveland teams.  This season, he's been slightly better than ever before in my opinion.  But he isn't really relevant in this year's MVP race.

LeBron's Irrelevance, and Why it's so Relevant to Talk About

James joined forces with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh last summer, ushering Miami into the South Beach Experiment era.  One of the hyped critiques of the move was how exactly James and Wade would fit with each other since they essentially fill the same role.  They are elite-level offensive anchors at the wing position who are solid defensive pieces.  Ignore for a minute the diminishing returns that this duo would suffer in theory.  What is the need for them on this Heat team?

It's reasonable to assume the team is better with both James and Wade acting as co-anchors of the offense.  When one isn't in the game or if one is having an off night, the team can rely on the other to counter deficiencies.  They've even been learning how to work together, using pick-n-roll plays and the like.  But what would the team look like without one of them?  Surely the team wouldn't rise to 58 victories on the back of high-end talent.  Bosh and Wade or Bosh and James aren't as good as James, Bosh and Wade (obviously).  But take one of those two off the team, and the Heat can still create a successful equation based on the Constant offensive anchor that is James or Wade, with Bosh as a dependable secondary option.  Add in the 3-point shooters and dedication to defense that head coach Erik Spoelstra could institute given the fact that Wade or James with Bosh would be doing the heavy lifting on offense, and you likely get a solid- flawed, but solid- 50 win team.  They'd be less compelling as a contender in the playoffs, but they'd still be pretty good.

The current construction of the Miami Heat is flawed, especially with their holes at center and point guard.  James and Wade and Bosh needed to produce a lot for this team this year, which is why they combined to have more win shares as a trio than any other trio in the league.  The Udonis Haslem and Mike Miller injuries make the job they did even more impressive.  But take Wade or James away and the team can still run using the same principles and operate at a decently high level in the regular season.  Spoelstra wouldn't need to rush to a radically different plan B.

That's why the best players in the league can't win this award in 2011.

Naming the Contenders

Dirk Nowitzki, Steve Nash, Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Derrick Rose, Dwight Howard, Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, San Antonio's Big Three, Amar'e Stoudemire, Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are suitable enough to be at least looked at.

I'm going to eliminate Westbrook, Williams, Stoudemire and Gasol first.  Westbrook isn't as important to the Thunder offense as Durant is.  Durant's super-efficient production of points, particularly coming off-ball, is incredible.  Westbrook, while electric, is prone to making bone-headed decisions and turns the ball over a lot despite not having to carry as much weight offensively as his teammate.  The team has other ball handlers, like Eric Maynor, James Harden, and to a lesser extent, Durant.  Obviously the team would suffer, but I think they'd suffer without Durant a lot more.  Westbrook's defense has regressed a bit, as he gambles way too often now.

Williams was traded mid-season and was injured at his new destination, so it's tough to gauge his value.  Amar'e started off strong, but a mid-season trade changed the dynamic of his team, and they ended up with a lesser record than I had hoped.  Gasol is on the huge frontline of the Lakers, and his normal replacement just won Sixth Man of the Year.  By now, I hope the logic of my choices is becoming clear enough that I don't need to explain why Pau Gasol isn't an MVP candidate.

Paul and Nash are similar.  Both led middling teams with inferior talent.  Both were incredibly valuable to their respective teams.  Neither had the help to get just enough positive results to be contenders here though.  Nash is probably in my top five for most valuable players in NBA history, but his under .500 team hurts him here.

Regarding Boston:  I can't seriously put a Celtic on here.  Rondo is the reason why the offense goes- and stops.  Nobody does enough heavy lifting to be included.  If I had to pick an MVP for that team though, it'd be Garnett.  With the injuries Boston suffered, if they didn't have KG, they'd have a horrific frontcourt.

The overrated Spurs are in a similar situation.  Tim Duncan would be my choice for that team's MVP because he makes the team respectable defensively with his shot-blocking and rebounding.  However, I think Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker's offense create the incredible offense that the Spurs displayed.  If you take one of those two away, I don't think the other players, including Duncan, could pick up the slack.  That would make the Spurs a lesser offensive team, and since the team isn't built to play strong defense anymore, I believe the effects of not having a Parker or a Ginobili would be significant.  Nobody's important enough.

This leaves Durant, Bryant, Nowitzki, Rose and Howard.

The Fab Five

And this time, their accomplishments will count!

Let's start with the Black Mamba.  Offensively, Kobe needs to shoulder an immense load initiating, scoring, handling the ball and making plays for others.  On his blog, ElGee notes that Kobe's offensive responsibility is gigantic, second to another remaining player, Derrick Rose.  Remember that fact.

  L.A. is a difficult team to gauge because they are an older team, a tired two-time champion that is known to coast at times during the regular season.  Observing them is a chore simply because you never know if and when they are operating at their highest level.  Are they badly equipped for the regular season?  Are they badly equipped for the regular season without Kobe?

Dr. MJ talked about Kobe's impact here, citing the fact that he doesn't lift his team as much as other superstars which at the very least indicates that he isn't as valuable to his particular team as they are to their respective teams.  Now, an argument against me using Doc's argument is that a player can't lift a talented team that high- a damning argument against Kobe if we're positing that Kobe's team is talented- except that there is a profound concentration of the team's top-end talent in the frontcourt.  Kobe's presence balances things out for L.A.- ironic if you've followed Kobe's career.

Kobe would be my MVP.  But...Derrick Rose has a similar problem with his team.  The difference is Rose doesn't even have that concentration of high-end talent at any position on his team- offensively anyway.  He also doesn't have anybody who can handle the ball.  At least L.A. has Lamar Odom and the point guards to bring the ball past half court.  Pau Gasol can create a bit in the half court.  Chicago's best ball-handler not named after a flower (as far as I know) is Earl Watson, who isn't a high-minutes player.

Two of the Fab Five. 

At least L.A. has the talent in the frontcourt and some ball handlers.  Sorry Kobe, but your team isn't flawed enough.

Nowitzki and Durant are similar.  The main value they bring is efficient off-ball perimeter scoring that essentially opens things up inside and outside for the peripheral players.  Nowitzki's team has more depth, while Durant has more players named Westbrook.  Dallas seemed to really struggle without Dirk this year, which would give Dirk the edge over KD.  However, if you take KD off his newly formed team, you'd lose any frontcourt scoring, or positive effects of frontcourt offense outside of Serge Ibaka's off-ball game, that exists.  Number-one option Westbrook is a bad fit with the interior based Ibaka-Kendrick Perkins frontcourt; he'd have been better with Jeff Green and Nenad Krstic.  After that trade, Durant is more valuable than ever.  His ability to spread the floor, allow Westbrook to do other things, and produce volume scoring from a non-backcourt position makes the offense work.

Still, I don't see either of those two forwards doing what Rose needs to do.  Think about it like this:  Rose essentially plays two positions for the Bulls.  He's the volume scoring threat and the floor-general point guard.  The run he's on has been compared to 2001 Allen Iverson's MVP run, but I reject that comparison.  Iverson wasn't the ball hog that season that people like to characterize him as- otherwise, how did Eric Snow and Aaron McKie manage 7.4 and 5.0 assists per game, respectively?  Philly could at least run some offense and get the ball up the floor.  Rose doesn't have anybody who averages over 2.8 assists per game on his team.  Rose plays two positions for the Bulls on offense- he's Allen Iverson, and he's Eric Snow.

That brings us to Dwight Howard.  Howard has improved by leaps and bounds this year, turning his mechanical offensive game into a confident-looking, fluidly effective source of points for his Orlando team.  The Magic had clearly regressed in the beginning of the year as Rashard Lewis and Vince Carter struggled.  Howard kept the team afloat.  The team traded those two, along with his backup, Marcin Gortat, for Gilbert Arenas, Jason Richardson, and Hedo Turkoglu.  Hedo and J-Rich have been solid, while Arenas has put up a disappointing 8 point per game on woeful percentages.  Howard got the team to 52 wins with his 22.9 points and 14.1 rebounds per game, along with DPOY-type defense.

Who rebounds for that team?  Orlando has the best defensive rebounding percentage in the league this season, a crucial part of their defense.  I happen to think Orlando's team defense, orchestrated by Stan Van Gundy, would be greater than the sum of its parts without Dwight.  But rebounding is part of defense, and you can only scheme so much for "I'm bigger than you."

Orlando would drop off offensively as well.  A big part of their offense is their eFG%, but without Howard's efficient post scoring, what happens to that stat?  I think Orlando sans Dwight Howard would be a less explosive version of last year's Golden State Warriors, with better defense.  That's not a very good team.  Solid, but not very good.  Kinda sucks actually.

Chicago?  Without Rose, the team's offense sputters.  They were a bit above average this year with Rose.  Without him, they'd turn the ball over even more than they did (they were pedestrian in terms of turnovers this year).  Their claim to offensive fame was offensive rebounding, but you need to get shots up to get offensive boards, and it helps to have a guy drawing attention 18 feet away from the basket.  Intuitively, their league-leading eFG% Against would go up since they'd be turning the ball over more often.  Their defense would suffer without their two-positions-in-one star, and that isn't even taking into account Rose's stellar defense this season.

Above average defense and nearly league worst offense.  Well, that likely results in a team better than Orlando without Howard, but that doesn't solve much considering Rose's team did win more games than Dwight's.

It's Rose's effects on offense as a double-duty star that are so great that it spills into the team's awesome defense vs. Howard's all-around effects on defensive possessions and scoring efficiency.  Different effects on different teams by different types of players.

At this point, both are viable candidates.  However, my choice for MVP would be Derrick Rose.  Such a concentrated flaw in a team is dangerous, as shown this year in the LeBron-less Cavaliers.  They went from over 60 wins to less than 20.  The balancing act necessary to maintain a respectable team would be enormous if Chicago's base player was taken away.  Howard's departure would obviously hurt, but Rose's departure puts Chicago in a black hole- we don't know where they'd land.

As I said, Howard as MVP is certainly reasonable.  I'm taking Rose strictly because of my belief that the concentration in Rose's effects on Chicago would hurt the Bulls to a greater degree if Rose weren't there.  They'd very much need to change what they are.  The team's principle logic and makeup would dissolve without- well, without its MVP- to a greater degree than Orlando without Howard.

I think my three seconds in the paint are up.... 

NBA Playoffs: First Round Preview, Sizable Questions, and Predictions

It's NBA playoff time, baby.  It’s the pro’s version of March Madness as teams get to scrutinize matchup issues and weaknesses of the opposition in a best-of-seven series. 

Image Via busybuzzblogging.com

Unfortunately, the 2011 playoffs will go on sans a couple of classic, shouldn't-need-to-miss features:  Tracy McGrady's team won't be kicked out of the first round, Steve Nash won't get to demonstrably prove that his style of offense works in the playoffs despite what his detractors say, and NBA audiences won't be listening to analysts comment about how great the Houston Rockets are doing without an injured Yao Ming.  If you can't live in a world where consumption of the information I just spoke of is available to you during most NBA telecasts, then stop reading this article and turn on the NHL playoffs.  If you can make it through and be satisfied with a half-historic/half-experimental playoffs, then follow me!  Don't feel forced though- hopefully my McGrady joke caught your comedic eye enough and you think they'll be more hilarity in the coming paragraphs…a risky proposition. 

Eastern Conference Preview
  In the Eastern Conference, everything is pretty straightforward.  All of the bottom-four teams are competitive squads, but none of them will make the top-four quaver.  Despite what happened in the regular season (ATL taking three out of four), Orlando owns Atlanta to a greater extent than Matthew Mcconaughey owned his lead role in The Lincoln Lawyer (Seriously, watch that movie.  Excellent performance my Matty Mac).  Joe Johnson may be a very rich man, but the constant flow of dollars and sense into his bank account isn't proportional to the offensive consistency and sense that he provides the team he's supposed to lead.  This is the series I see ending in a sweep.  Dwight Howard's prudent concern should be limiting his technical fouls and using his anger at getting hit across the face to run harder, make moves faster, and play defense better than ever.  He's by far the best player in this series, but he's got to remain disciplined. 

A very wise professor (Not making this up and not saying he's wise to play up my narrative regarding a basketball player whom I don't know personally) recently told me that if a person wants real freedom, they need to have discipline.  Howard's ability to control his emotions, even if he needs to use self-deception - pretending that literally every time a call goes against him, it physically boosts his energy- will be the key to not only Howard's success, but Orlando's success.  Orlando is my dark horse pick to win the NBA championship.  But it starts with Howard not picking up technicals in the first round of the playoffs against an easy opponent.  Normally, this series wouldn’t matter.  I think it matters mentally for Orlando, and Dwight in particular.  They’ll obviously win, but it’s the mental aspect that the Magic must capture. 

Mr. MVP Derrick Rose is going to lead his team past Indiana in five games.  Indy is a solid team, but they will simply be overmatched here.  Luol Deng should limit Danny Granger, and Roy Hibbert has neither the game nor the experience to play well against Chicago's tough interior defense.  Darren Collison will have a hard time driving into Chicago Head Coach Tom Thibodeau's playoff defense, a defense which-  when Thibs was in Boston- looked to suffocate perimeter-oriented creators by keying on them and denying them their most effective spots.    

Boston versus New York looks good better on paper.  And I think it will be a good, entertaining series.  The Knicks can legitimately call this a small, nascent rivalry now, regardless of what Paul Pierce thinks.  In professional wrestling (the one with the metamorphic stone who asks people if they can detect the odor of his cooking, the one that Boston's Shaquille O'Neal appeared on in the past...the one you used to watch!  Yeah, admit it!), a rivalry is born when two wrestlers start a feud and produce an emotional reaction in the audience, good or bad.  Knicks against Celtics isn't Yankees against Red Sox yet- that'll only happen when Rajon Rondo throws Walt "Clyde" Frazier to the baseline of MSG during a brawl- but it has some potential.

Both teams have high-end talent, but Boston is the team with an identity and a build.  New York is just figuring it out, and although Amar'e, Melo and Chauncey are an excellent offensive trio, the Knicks will have a hard time slowing down Boston, which shot a league-best 48.6 percent from the field this year.  Now, Boston was below average offensively in terms of offensive rating, which can be attributed to poor offensive rebounds and turnovers (Boston was terrible in these two categories).  However, New York is less than outstanding when it comes to boxing out and defensive rebounding, and the Knicks aren't exactly a bunch of ballhawks out there.  Boston should be fine offensively, and since defense is their team constant, they'll beat New York.

Can Iggy slow Lebron enough?

The South Beach Experiment starts as well.  Philly actually matches up pretty well against Miami, as Andre Iguodala is arguably the best perimeter defender in the NBA.  Having Iggy on Lebron or Wade will slow Miami's offense down.  Elton Brand matches up well against Chris Bosh, who isn't exactly Stone Cold Steve Austin when it comes to being physical.  (Would you look at that?  My memories of wrestling are infiltrating my post.  Maybe after the playoff games are done for the day, a little Wrestlemania XXI via YouTube is in order.)

Still, Miami's defense wins out as Philly doesn't have the offense capable of exposing Miami's weaknesses.  I expect this to go to six games as Miami attempts to find its playoff self while fending off a tough foe coached by the meritorious Doug Collins.  This series is analogous to Boston's 2008 first-round matchup against Atlanta.  Not saying Miami finds itself enough to run through the league to a title, but you get the idea.

Western Conference Preview

Phil, Kobe, and Fisher are looking for their second three-peat together.  They will be tested more this year than either of the previous two years, as the top of the West is stronger than before.  However, they won't need to flip their usual lazy switch just yet.  The Hornets are a solid team with a point guard who is arguably better than the point guard about to win MVP.  The Lakers are terrible at defending point guards, so Paul will get his numbers, but with David West injured, I don't see how New Orleans summons enough firepower to take the Lakers down.  L.A. should rest center Andrew Bynum by using him sparingly and letting the bone bruise in his knee heal up.  They haven't had a healthy Bynum in either of their playoff runs the past two years, yet they've won nonetheless.  That won't happen this year though.  They need a healthy Bynum.  Not for this series, but for future ones.

Perkins gives the Thunder some power.

Oklahoma City is taking on Denver.  This is similar to the South Beach-meets-Liberty Bell series.  Denver's chemistry and a few favorable matchups will make this one of the most exciting series in the first round, and the Nuggets will give the superior talent of the Thunder a rumble they will take with them in future exploits.  With their genius mid-season trade to acquire center Kendrick Perkins, the Thunder have the capability of playing dominant playoff defense.  They have the chemistry and the personnel to do it, while Denver does not.  Kevin Durant was stopped offensively by Ron Artest and L.A.'s supreme length in his first shot at the playoffs, but now he has experience and the luxury of not facing Ron-Ron con defensive Megatron.

In theory, Dallas should dominate Portland.  The Blazers don't have a quick point guard capable of penetrating at will versus the Dallas D, Lamarcus Aldridge is facing a strong interior defense led by Tyson Chandler, and Brandon Roy isn't really Brandon Roy right now.  And yet...I believe this series will be amazing.  Portland, forged out of the Gerald Wallace trade and Aldridge's inspired play after becoming a first-option, is not a team where dissecting matchups makes a whole ton of sense.  I suspect Aldridge scores a ton despite Dallas defending him properly.  All Portland needs is one or two hot nights from one of their peripheral players to win games against Dallas.  I guess I'll take Dallas overall because I feel they are the third best team in the conference after the Lakers and Thunder, but man......I feel like we're all missing something as this series begins.  We need to watch this one closely.

San Antonio is going to lose in their first round series, ending many myths about the Spurs.

Myth 1:  Tim Duncan can still elevate his post-season play.

No, no he cannot.  He hasn't since 2007, and he hasn't consistently been able to on-call since 2006.  Tim Duncan is no longer a playoff offensive constant, and he is only a true co-anchor on defense.  Unfortunately, San Antonio has nobody in their frontcourt backing him up defensively, and their wings aren't great either.  The Spurs cannot expect Tim Duncan to carry them.            

Myth 2:  The Spurs will still be able to play enough defense to win now that they have a strong offense. 

Related to myth one.  Where is the anchor?  San Antonio didn't show signs of playing consistently excellent defense in the regular season, and this particular team hasn't shown an ability to turn a switch on that side of the floor.  There are a lot of new faces since the last time the Spurs relied on dominant defense to get far in April and May. 

Can Duncan still elevate his game?

Myth 3:  Playing the stars at decreased minutes was only to preserve them, and the egalitarian nature of the team's scoring distribution is not a weakness.           

The team has no true offensive constant either.  This is especially true if Ginobili is not playing at his best as a result of the elbow injury he suffered at the end of the season.  If San Antonio is going to be carried by their offense this year in the playoffs, then it won't go far, because their offense won't look like it did in the regular season.  You need to be able to bank on somebody's offense this time of the year, and the Spurs can't.

I'm calling it.  The Grizzlies will take down the Spurs.  Memphis has the ability to punish the Spurs on the offensive glass and make the Spurs walk the ball up, and they have an above average defense that could give a less-than 100 percent healthy Spurs offense trouble.



I'll be back with analysis of Shaq's importance to Boston going forward and of how well built the Thunder may be now with Perkins.  Enjoy the playoffs.  Make sure to watch Portland and Dallas.  And remember to come back and comment on how insane I was for taking Memphis to beat San Antonio- or on how astounding and ballsy a pick I made.