ECF: Heat vs. Celtics

It's The Big Three vs. The Big Three 2, Round Two. Miami slayed the beast of the East in last year's five-game semifinal series. Now they reconvene in the Eastern Conference Finals with a bevy of intriguing matchups and variables.

Miami Heat (2) vs. Boston Celtics (4)

Chris Bosh needs to at least occupy Kevin Garnett.

The only reason Miami is even here is because Dwyane Wade and LeBron James went all Shaq & Kobe on the Indiana Pacers last series. Over the final three games against Indy, James averaged 32.7 points, 11.3 rebounds, and 8 assists per game on 61.3 percent True Shooting and Wade averaged 33 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 3.7 assists per game on 64.4 percent True Shooting. Ridiculous.

But that isn't sustainable against Boston. Kevin Garnett can roam around since Miami doesn't have a big man to attack with. Remember how Roy Hibbert was supposed to do that in the Indiana series but didn't because he's an overrated, plodding, soft big man who didn't deserve to be an All-Star this year? Well, KG can get it done. Boston's playoff-leading defense (94.2 defensive rating) should stifle their new opponent.

Miami's stingy defense should do the same against Boston's anemic offense. With Avery Bradley hurt and Rajon Rondo being a poor shooter - save for the final five minutes of game seven against Philly (Poor Doug Collins)- Miami's playoff-leading ability to force turnovers will provide them with easy transition buckets. LeBron James has shut down Carmelo Anthony and Danny Granger this postseason and has shut down a healthy Paul Pierce in the playoffs before; handling a hobbled Pierce won't be a problem. And for all the talk of Boston's success from behind the arc against Miami this season, the Heat's playoff opponents have shot below 30 percent from 3-point land in the playoffs. Miami is paying attention to closeouts in the playoffs.

Kevin Garnett will get his; he's the matchup advantage Boston has to milk. Rondo is smart enough to get him the ball.

The big variable here is the health of Chris Bosh. Does he play? If he plays, can he give 60-70 percent of his average performance? They need him to at least be a presence, at least pull a Willis Reed by occupying the other team's frontcourt despite an injury. KG has historically owned Bosh, but if he can simply be enough of an offensive threat to deflect attention from Wade and James, they can take care of the rest.

Miami is the superior basketball team, and if both teams were fully healthy, it'd be an easy call. The Bosh injury plays, however. After watching him cry last year following the NBA Finals loss, one must believe he'll fight through pain and try to help his team. Two-and-a-half solid games from him is really all Miami needs.

Pick: Heat in 6

Eastern Conference Second Round Playoff Preview

The first round of the Eastern Conference Playoffs had its share of casualties: Derrick Rose, Iman Shumpert, and any fan who had to watch the Indiana-Orlando series. The second round is here, and it comes with a preview:

Miami Heat (2) vs. Indiana Pacers (3)

Danny Granger will have his hands full with the MVP.

The Pacers now face a real playoff team- maybe too real.

Miami vs. New York was anticlimactic after receiving momentous hype, with the Heat downing the Knicks in five games and outscoring them by nearly 15 points per game. LeBron James, recently named three-time MVP, did whatever he wanted and thoroughly outplayed Carmelo Anthony on both ends, even shutting down the scorer extraordinaire for long stretches.

The Indiana Pacers shot less than 45 percent against the Dwight Howard-less Magic. Indy found it difficult honing in on Orlando's weakness in the middle despite having All-Star center Roy Hibbert, who put up pedestrian numbers against Stan Van Gundy's makeshift defensive schemes. How is Indiana's multipolar offense going to put pressure on Miami's defense? Danny Granger is Indiana's best scorer, and he'll be guarded by James. Where is the scoring coming from?

Indiana's strength is defense; Granger's and Paul George's length may bother LeBron and Dwyane Wade at times, though the superstars will get their numbers. David West must win his matchup against Chris Bosh. Bosh may be too quick for the older West, however. Expect a big series from Bosh- something like what he did last year against Carlos Boozer.

Overall, Indiana isn't a threat to Miami. The maximum this series goes is five games.

Pick: Miami in 4

Boston Celtics (4) vs. Philadelphia 76ers (8)

It's not Larry Bird vs. Julius Erving, but it's still a great SF matchup.

The story here is similar to the Boston-Atlanta first round preview. Philadelphia brings toughness, a rebounding advantage, and a young, quick two-way point guard to combat Rajon Rondo.

Despite Al Horford's return midway through the series, the Hawks only grabbed one more rebound per game than the Celtics did. Boston held its own on the glass and shut down Atlanta's offense by plugging penetration lanes and forcing the ball back out. Atlanta was a much better 3-point shooting team than Philadelphia in the regular season, yet the Hawks managed to shoot just 31 percent against the Celtics. Philly's 3-point shooting was putrid against the Bulls.

Spencer Hawes needs to spread the floor and take Kevin Garnett away from the core of Boston's defense. Who trusts Hawes to do that? With KG able to roam, Philly's offense will run into the same problems Atlanta's did. Jrue Holiday and Andre Iguodala can't penetrate to the rim with KG meeting them 15 feet out.

The Sixers will take a game or two. Thaddeus Young presents problems for Boston, and the Sixers have the defense to slow down Rondo and Paul Pierce. They simply don't have enough weapons to capitalize.

Pick: Boston in 6

Eastern Conference First Round Playoff Preview

It's playoff time in the NBA, a time for the team to shine. Regular season success matter little; it's all about matchups now. It's all about how one team matches up against another. It's "five as one" vs. "five as one", a social experiment of sorts; how does one team co-mingle with another?

Here is NBA Wired's preview of the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs.

Chicago Bulls (1) vs. Philadelphia 76ers (8)

Rose will see plenty of Iggy in the first round.

Andre Iguodala and Jrue Holiday anchor perhaps the best perimeter defense in the league, a strength which on paper appears perfect for slowing Derrick Rose and the Bulls. Chicago specializes in shutting down superstar-centric offenses, but that doesn't matter against Philly's multi-polar offense. This series is ripe for an upset, right?

Well, it could have been if the Sixers weren't trending downward as the season progressed. Philly blazed through the first part of the season before struggling down the stretch en route to the eighth seed, whereas Chicago adapted to the absence of Rose. Chicago is going to win the possession battle: they take care of the ball better than Philly forces turnovers, and their dominant offensive rebounding corps will provide extra shots against a team without a singularly dominant defensive rebounder.

A major advantage for Chicago is their defensive depth. Philly's Louis Williams and Thaddeus Young anchor a potent scoring bench, but they'll be running into Omer Asik and Taj Gibson, who anchor arguably the best bench defense in the league.


Pick: Chicago Bulls


Miami Heat (2) vs. New York Knicks (7)


This is the most exciting matchup in the conference. The last time these two teams hooked up in the first round of the playoffs after a lockout was 1999, when Allan Houston got his $100 million shot to go down.

Talk about a marketable matchup...

These Knicks are a wildly different team than at season's start thanks to Mike Woodson's emphasis on defense. Tyson Chandler is possibly the purest anti-Heat weapon in the league, a center who can take advantage of Miami's small frontcourt with his length and movement. New York's explosive bench can push the pace against Miami's slower bench players. Iman Shumpert's defense against Dwyane Wade and LeBron James will be integral. On the other side, how will Miami defend Carmelo Anthony, who has been surging since the All-Star break and is out to prove himself against his 2003 draftmates?

In the end, Miami is going to have the two biggest matchup advantages on the court for 40 minutes per game. James and Wade are the two best players in the series and are on a mission to avenge last year's NBA Finals loss.

This series will go a minimum of six games.


Pick: Miami Heat


Indian Pacers (3) vs. Orlando Magic (6)


Should have just put Milwaukee in the sixth spot.

The Dwight Howard-less Orlando Magic have no chance against arguably the deepest team in the conference. Danny Granger's play improved throughout the season; post-All-Star Break, he averaged 19.4 points per game on 45 percent shooting, 41.3 percent from 3, and 90.8 percent from the free throw line. Granger and Paul George should be able to bother Orlando's 3-point shooters, who don't have Howard opening the floor for them.


Pick: Indiana Pacers

Boston Celtics (4) vs. Atlanta Hawks (5)

Jeff Teague needs to prevent Rajon Rondo's penetration.

This is going to be a tight series. Boston is the better team, but Atlanta has home-court advantage, a rebounding advantage, and an improved Josh Smith. J-Smoove nearly put up a 20/10/4 season this year and carried Atlanta's frontcourt after Al Horford sustained an injury.

Jeff Teague vs. Rajon Rondo is the premier matchup to watch; if Teague can cause havoc and open up jumpers for Atlanta's shooters, they have a chance. But that's a tough task with Kevin Garnet manning the middle. With KG's move to C and Horford's absence, he'll be free to guard Zaza Pachulia and Ivan Johnson, meaning he can roam and help out on Smith and Teague. Avery Bradley's development as a defensive stopper will prove handy against Joe Johnson.

Atlanta doesn't have the offense to score against the best defense in the league; Boston still has Paul Pierce for isolation scoring when a drought occurs.


Pick: Boston Celtics

Click here to see the first round Western Conference matchups!

South Beach Case Study: Miami Before the Stretch Run

Despite receiving less media attention this season, the Miami Heat get more and more intriguing from a historical perspective.  

Last year, I wrote a series of posts on the South Beach Case Study (SBCS), aka, the first-of-its-kind experiment that is the Miami Heat, led by LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh.  Never have three stars come together in the middle of their primes in hopes of winning a title.  Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, and Paul Pierce were grizzled vets with playoff scars.  Elgin Baylor, Jerry West, and Wilt Chamberlain were the same way nearly 40 years before Boston's trio connected.

Dwyane Wade and LeBron James.  

What, if any, transformation has Miami undergone since last season?   

Last year, Miami won 58 regular season games and led the league in SRS (6.58), then blasted through the Eastern Conference before falling to Dallas in the NBA Finals.  Their success was mainly tied to James, Wade and Bosh doing incredible amounts of heavy lifting on both ends of the floor.  Considering the team had no depth, no point guard or center, and injuries to their best peripheral players, Mike Miller and Udonis Haslem, the fact that the three amigos were able to lift Miami to rank third in offensive rating and fifth in defensive rating is a testament to their high-end talent.

Currently, Miami sits at 34-11 (Second in SRS at 8), which would be good for a 62-win pace in a traditional, non-screwed up regular season.  Rookie Norris Cole, an improved Mario Chalmers, veteran Shane Battier, and healthy Miller and Haslem have contributed to the improvement, as has a more open offense that isn't predicated on star monopolization of the ball.  The team ranks second in offensive rating and sixth in defensive rating, although they haven't been defending the 3-point shot quite as well this year (36.5 percent this year vs. 34.5 percent last year).

What's scary for the rest of the NBA is how Dwyane Wade has seen a significant decrease in his minutes and raw box score production.  In 2011, Wade averaged 25.5 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 4.6 assists in 37.2 minutes per game.  In 2012, he has averaged 22.9 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 4.8 assists in 32.9 minutes per game.  On a per-minute basis, Wade is actually more productive in most categories this season.

That Miami has been able to deliver an even stronger regular season than last year despite Wade doing less heavy lifting indicates the team is now much more than just a talented group of individuals- they are gelling as a team.  Being able to reserve energy stores for the playoffs is good for the 30-year-old Wade, and it should be able to extend his career longer, too.

What happens when Wade starts playing 38-40 minutes per game in the playoffs?  How does it change Miami?  Perhaps they are concealing an even higher gear?  

Miami is still a donut team- no, that's not a nod to Eddy Curry.  But the most dangerous current contenders are led by perimeter-oriented players, and that bodes well for a perimeter corps that shut down Jeremy Lin a few weeks ago and Derrick Rose in the Eastern Conference Finals last year.

The Heat are in the stretch run now.  Come this postseason, we'll be able to observe the full potential of this core, and more SBCS questions should be answered.  

The South Beach Case Study: Year One Complete

The first year of the South Beach Case Study concluded with a compelling NBA Finals that saw the Dallas Mavericks defeat the Miami Heat in six games.  Although Miami- specifically LeBron James- mightily disappointed in the Finals, don't be quick to call the experiment a failure.   

1. This team was designed by Pat Riley, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, James, and according to the media, Satan himself, to be a contender for many years.  The case study is in its infancy. 
2. If James plays half as well in the Finals as he had all season, the first year of this experiment would have concluded with a championship.     

Calling the 2011 season a rough start to the experiment in terms of variables understates how flawed Miami's team was constructed around the Big Three.  Udonis Haslem and Mike Miller, the team's fourth and fifth best players, were injured throughout the year and missed the habit-forming process that is the NBA regular season.  The Three Kings were flanked by limited one-way players, rusting veterans, and zero-way piles of rust (I'm looking at you, Mike Bibby).  Yet, even with their heavy lifters needing time to gel and redundancy getting in the way of a good time, Miami won 58 games and vanquished every Eastern Conference foe in the playoffs.

From left:  Chris Bosh, LeBron James and Dwyane Wade. 

What have we learned?  I'll posit questions from the beginning of the year and briefly give conclusions.

Can two ball-dominant slashers, James and Wade, work together?  Yes, but not perfectly.  An inside/outside combination always works better because it's more balanced.  James and Wade tweaked their off-ball games this year to feature more cutting, spot-up shooting and reading of offensive rebounding lanes.  However, old habits crept through at times, displaying themselves in the form of the two augmenting the playbook to feature "isolation and hold the ball for 18 seconds before acting" sets.  Not very effective basketball.

 Will the egos of the three amigos collide or will they remember the sacrifices they promised to make in order to play with each other?  To put it simply, they remembered.  James and Wade appeared to share the ball in crunch time, too.   

What about substitution patterns and minutes distributions? Will their careers be extended because they don't have to lift their teams alone anymore?  Well, they carried a heavy burden this year.  Spoelstra couldn't afford to really rest his prime players, and without a true post defender, the three stars expended a lot of energy making the defense elite (fifth in defensive rating).  

What happens to a superstar's stats when he isn't playing in a single superstar-centric offense anymore?  The offensive stats went down a bit for Wade and James and a lot for Bosh.  This is related to the first question.  When the ball-handlers go to iso-ball, they waste the help they signed up to play with.

The team would be best served obtaining a point guard able and willing to take command of the offense from James and Wade.  If Miami runs some actual plays that turn James and Wade into finishers, Miami's offense could get to an all-time level.   

The SBCS gets the summer off.  Year two will begin...well, with the lockout looming, that's as unpredictable as South Beach itself.       

Viva Las Vegas, Hola NBA Finals

Vegas baby...

There I was in Las Vegas.  My first time.  I was unsure of what to do, of what the rules were or what proper etiquette was.  And I didn't want anybody to know how inexperienced I was, especially since Sin City specializes in this type of exciting endeavor.

Finally working up the courage to give it up, I pulled my wallet out and saw I only had $10.  Maybe it's better this way.

I approached with the money in hand and asked if $10 was enough.  Thankfully, she told me that $10 was the minimum and gave me my choices.  I selected what I wanted, what I thought was going to happen based on my knowledge of the subject.

I don't know how long it lasted- 20, maybe 25 minutes.  I was on top of the world, my hard work being paid off at this very moment in this crazy city at this ballerific hotel.  I was in the special room with everybody else, watching men and women being served drinks and smokes and food while they did what I was doing.  They seemed much more at ease, much more at home with this lifestyle.  I would have been more uncomfortable if I wasn't feeling the euphoria of conquest.

And then, Vegas turned into the place you hear about from your mature family members and corny vacation guides and old creepy people still shell-shocked by how much money they lost at Atlantic City 16 years ago.  The house- the House- started taking over, and I felt powerless to stop it.  What would I tell people about this trip?  It wasn't about the $10 I'd be losing.  It'd be the fact that my game two halftime prediction that the Miami Heat would defeat the Dallas Mavericks by four or more points was about to be eviscerated by one of the most epic comebacks in NBA Finals history.  My first ever sports bet in the most appropriate locale to do it in, the infamously inappropriate Las Vegas, Nevada.  I saw a 15-point lead and a $10 wager sail away faster than the growth of a new social media site.

I don't regret it though.  The contact buzz I obtained around those sports betting junkies (and I don't mean from the Macanudos) was worth it, and I made a good play- Dallas just hit on 16 and grabbed a five.    

Just for you Knicks fans:  I saw Patrick Ewing in Las Vegas, right on the Bellagio floor.  He was personable enough, though he wasn't taking pictures at the time.  Dude's the tallest person I've ever seen in person close up.

Some points on the Finals:

Dwyane Wade has been a two-way menace in the Finals. 

• Dwyane Wade is playing magnificent ball right now.  I wasn't aware of how much some pre-series rest could do for one's legs, because Wade certainly doesn't look like the same player he was against Chicago.

•  And neither does LeBron James for that matter.  I admire the fact that he's deferring to his great teammate, a teammate with a better matchup.  He's also facilitating and playing good defense.  But he hasn't been aggressive at any point during the last three games.  I think now that it's a best-of-three series, he'll look to handle more of the load.

• Maybe I'm wrong about LeBron though.  Maybe we're wrong to be criticizing him for his play.  It's quite possible that the difference between James "deferring and playing smart team ball" and "being scared and toothless in the face of the massive pressure of the Finals stage" is winning and losing.

• Dirk Nowitzki has been superman in both wins and losses.  He's a full-fledged offensive Constant now.  Well done Dirk, and I hope you are 100 percent for tomorrow's game.

• Jason Kidd is doing whatever it takes to win.  His guidance has been instrumental to me, especially when I see him passing the ball to JJ Barea or Jason Terry and essentially initiating their pick-n-roll with Dirk while Kidd goes and spreads the floor with his jumper.

For those wondering if I designed the first half of this post intentionally to make it seem like something, err, different, the answer is yes.  Next post, I’ll talk about a certain retiree.   

      

ECF Preview: Battle of the Flawed Teams

Derrick Rose will need to step against Miami's lengthy defense. 

The Miami Heat and the Chicago Bulls are beginning their Eastern Conference Finals series as I type this.  I'm just going to quickly describe why I believe the Miami Heat are going to be victorious.

Miami's defense is the key.  Chicago's offense is incredibly flawed, relying on one player to do more heavy lifting than any team in recent memory.  Derrick Rose was my MVP, and as I said before, that isn't necessarily a good thing for Chicago's team success.  It's incredibly difficult to win a title if your team is so flawed that you require one player to do so much in a certain area of the game, regardless of how great that player is.  The Heat defense is so quick to react and so long on the perimeter that I can't see Chicago's offense having any continuity, meaning the Bulls will not perform well when they eventually call on their sixth and seventh best players to make big plays.  Luol Deng is the next best wing player Chicago has, but he doesn't handle the ball, and LeBron James has been playing great defense this year.  Statistically, the Bulls are poor when it comes to taking care of the ball- mainly because they have no ball-handlers aside from the MVP- and that means trouble against James and Dwyane Wade.

The Bulls can expose a Heat flaw, however.  Miami's defense is at its best when it has slender bodies in the middle that can move quickly and cover space- when they have their small lineup in.  The only thing the Bulls do above average is offensive rebound with tough guys like Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah; each of them should be able to push Joel Anthony and Chris Bosh around and score off putbacks in the paint.  That's how Chicago is going to stay in this series offensively.

Defensively, Chicago's players arrange themselves in unison beautifully to block a player's movement.  It's beautiful and it should make things difficult for James, Wade and Chris Bosh.  Miami's offensive output is going to rely on the trust James and Wade have in their teammates.  James needs to trust that when he passes to James Jones, Jones will either take the open shot or pass the ball to Wade, who will be set to attack a scrambled defense that James just put into chaos with a drive off a pick-n-roll.  It doesn't seem like the Heat have had a problem with this thus far, which is why I think Miami's offense will be just fine.  They have the two best offensive players in the series; all they need to do is not waste that talent advantage.

I'm taking Miami in six games.  Chicago doesn't have the interior isolation scorers necessary to take advantage of the Heat's biggest flaw.  Miami has the speed on defense that will expose Chicago's biggest flaw of being too reliant on one creator.