Showing posts with label NBA playoffs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NBA playoffs. Show all posts

Sunday, May 20, 2012

The Trailblazing 2012 Spurs

The '12 Spurs push basketball purists into a mania. Amidst LeBron James/Dwyane Wade and Kevin Durant/Russell Westbrook-led isolation-heavy teams, the Spurs understand the value of spacing and swing passes better than the rest. Team play at its best.

We've seen this type of attack before; the accompanying mania reveals itself all too well.

TNT knew what they were doing when they put these two together.
It was called Blazermania in 1977. In his one healthy prime season, Bill Walton was an all-timer when it came to helping teammates and stymying the opposition's game plan. The Blazers were quick to the attack, and it started with Walton's outlet passing. He didn't so much pass it to wing players like Lionel Hollins and Bob Gross as he did magically adjust each carom's momentum with his fingertips. It looked like he snapped at the ball and it landed in a wing player's hands, initiating a fast break.

In the half court, Blazermania was more evident. Without a 3-point line, the Blazers gained spacing by inverting their offense- Walton and Mo Lucas worked from the mid-post and high-post areas and either found cutters or set screens. The beautiful half-court offense picked defenses apart. These defenses were befuddled because they could not focus on a concentrated point of attack- i.e., a superstar scorer.

Thirty-five years later, the same brand of basketball is being played in San Antonio. The newly lithe Tim Duncan plays offense similarly to the fiery Walton, flicking outlet passes, knocking down jump shots, cutting to the basket to keep defenses honest, and providing necessary post scoring. Duncan has never been more effective from the perimeter. Even their raw stats are similar: Duncan averaged nearly 20 points and three assists per 36 minutes in the regular season on 49 percent shooting; Walton averaged nearly 19 points and four assists per 36 minutes in 1977 on 53 percent shooting.

Boris Diaw is a clear staircase below an underrated all-time great like Lucas, but like Lucas, he provides excellent passing and the ability to spread the floor. Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard score off-ball like Gross and Hollins. The Blazers lacked individual creators like Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, but Portland did have solid depth: six players averaged at least 10.9 points per game for the Blazers during the '77 playoffs. Portland head coach Dr. Jack Ramsay and Gregg Popovich are two of the best ever.

The major differences in the teams are that the Spurs get to use a 3-point line and the Blazers were better defensively. The same principles of synergy and team play apply.

The 1977 Blazers defeated a poorly constructed Laker team led by the best individual in the league, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, then won the title by defeating the Philadelphia 76ers, a talented group of individuals who were less than the sum of their parts. Looking at the teams left standing in San Antonio's way, there is a chance the Spurs repeat the narrative exactly.

Call it Alamomania.

Saturday, May 12, 2012

Eastern Conference Second Round Playoff Preview

The first round of the Eastern Conference Playoffs had its share of casualties: Derrick Rose, Iman Shumpert, and any fan who had to watch the Indiana-Orlando series. The second round is here, and it comes with a preview:

Miami Heat (2) vs. Indiana Pacers (3)

Danny Granger will have his hands full with the MVP.
The Pacers now face a real playoff team- maybe too real.

Miami vs. New York was anticlimactic after receiving momentous hype, with the Heat downing the Knicks in five games and outscoring them by nearly 15 points per game. LeBron James, recently named three-time MVP, did whatever he wanted and thoroughly outplayed Carmelo Anthony on both ends, even shutting down the scorer extraordinaire for long stretches.

The Indiana Pacers shot less than 45 percent against the Dwight Howard-less Magic. Indy found it difficult honing in on Orlando's weakness in the middle despite having All-Star center Roy Hibbert, who put up pedestrian numbers against Stan Van Gundy's makeshift defensive schemes. How is Indiana's multipolar offense going to put pressure on Miami's defense? Danny Granger is Indiana's best scorer, and he'll be guarded by James. Where is the scoring coming from?

Indiana's strength is defense; Granger's and Paul George's length may bother LeBron and Dwyane Wade at times, though the superstars will get their numbers. David West must win his matchup against Chris Bosh. Bosh may be too quick for the older West, however. Expect a big series from Bosh- something like what he did last year against Carlos Boozer.

Overall, Indiana isn't a threat to Miami. The maximum this series goes is five games.

Pick: Miami in 4

Boston Celtics (4) vs. Philadelphia 76ers (8)

It's not Larry Bird vs. Julius Erving, but it's still a great SF matchup.
The story here is similar to the Boston-Atlanta first round preview. Philadelphia brings toughness, a rebounding advantage, and a young, quick two-way point guard to combat Rajon Rondo.

Despite Al Horford's return midway through the series, the Hawks only grabbed one more rebound per game than the Celtics did. Boston held its own on the glass and shut down Atlanta's offense by plugging penetration lanes and forcing the ball back out. Atlanta was a much better 3-point shooting team than Philadelphia in the regular season, yet the Hawks managed to shoot just 31 percent against the Celtics. Philly's 3-point shooting was putrid against the Bulls.

Spencer Hawes needs to spread the floor and take Kevin Garnett away from the core of Boston's defense. Who trusts Hawes to do that? With KG able to roam, Philly's offense will run into the same problems Atlanta's did. Jrue Holiday and Andre Iguodala can't penetrate to the rim with KG meeting them 15 feet out.

The Sixers will take a game or two. Thaddeus Young presents problems for Boston, and the Sixers have the defense to slow down Rondo and Paul Pierce. They simply don't have enough weapons to capitalize.

Pick: Boston in 6

Sunday, May 15, 2011

ECF Preview: Battle of the Flawed Teams

Derrick Rose will need to step against Miami's lengthy defense. 
The Miami Heat and the Chicago Bulls are beginning their Eastern Conference Finals series as I type this.  I'm just going to quickly describe why I believe the Miami Heat are going to be victorious.

Miami's defense is the key.  Chicago's offense is incredibly flawed, relying on one player to do more heavy lifting than any team in recent memory.  Derrick Rose was my MVP, and as I said before, that isn't necessarily a good thing for Chicago's team success.  It's incredibly difficult to win a title if your team is so flawed that you require one player to do so much in a certain area of the game, regardless of how great that player is.  The Heat defense is so quick to react and so long on the perimeter that I can't see Chicago's offense having any continuity, meaning the Bulls will not perform well when they eventually call on their sixth and seventh best players to make big plays.  Luol Deng is the next best wing player Chicago has, but he doesn't handle the ball, and LeBron James has been playing great defense this year.  Statistically, the Bulls are poor when it comes to taking care of the ball- mainly because they have no ball-handlers aside from the MVP- and that means trouble against James and Dwyane Wade.

The Bulls can expose a Heat flaw, however.  Miami's defense is at its best when it has slender bodies in the middle that can move quickly and cover space- when they have their small lineup in.  The only thing the Bulls do above average is offensive rebound with tough guys like Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah; each of them should be able to push Joel Anthony and Chris Bosh around and score off putbacks in the paint.  That's how Chicago is going to stay in this series offensively.

Defensively, Chicago's players arrange themselves in unison beautifully to block a player's movement.  It's beautiful and it should make things difficult for James, Wade and Chris Bosh.  Miami's offensive output is going to rely on the trust James and Wade have in their teammates.  James needs to trust that when he passes to James Jones, Jones will either take the open shot or pass the ball to Wade, who will be set to attack a scrambled defense that James just put into chaos with a drive off a pick-n-roll.  It doesn't seem like the Heat have had a problem with this thus far, which is why I think Miami's offense will be just fine.  They have the two best offensive players in the series; all they need to do is not waste that talent advantage.

I'm taking Miami in six games.  Chicago doesn't have the interior isolation scorers necessary to take advantage of the Heat's biggest flaw.  Miami has the speed on defense that will expose Chicago's biggest flaw of being too reliant on one creator.