ECF: Heat vs. Celtics

It's The Big Three vs. The Big Three 2, Round Two. Miami slayed the beast of the East in last year's five-game semifinal series. Now they reconvene in the Eastern Conference Finals with a bevy of intriguing matchups and variables.

Miami Heat (2) vs. Boston Celtics (4)

Chris Bosh needs to at least occupy Kevin Garnett.

The only reason Miami is even here is because Dwyane Wade and LeBron James went all Shaq & Kobe on the Indiana Pacers last series. Over the final three games against Indy, James averaged 32.7 points, 11.3 rebounds, and 8 assists per game on 61.3 percent True Shooting and Wade averaged 33 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 3.7 assists per game on 64.4 percent True Shooting. Ridiculous.

But that isn't sustainable against Boston. Kevin Garnett can roam around since Miami doesn't have a big man to attack with. Remember how Roy Hibbert was supposed to do that in the Indiana series but didn't because he's an overrated, plodding, soft big man who didn't deserve to be an All-Star this year? Well, KG can get it done. Boston's playoff-leading defense (94.2 defensive rating) should stifle their new opponent.

Miami's stingy defense should do the same against Boston's anemic offense. With Avery Bradley hurt and Rajon Rondo being a poor shooter - save for the final five minutes of game seven against Philly (Poor Doug Collins)- Miami's playoff-leading ability to force turnovers will provide them with easy transition buckets. LeBron James has shut down Carmelo Anthony and Danny Granger this postseason and has shut down a healthy Paul Pierce in the playoffs before; handling a hobbled Pierce won't be a problem. And for all the talk of Boston's success from behind the arc against Miami this season, the Heat's playoff opponents have shot below 30 percent from 3-point land in the playoffs. Miami is paying attention to closeouts in the playoffs.

Kevin Garnett will get his; he's the matchup advantage Boston has to milk. Rondo is smart enough to get him the ball.

The big variable here is the health of Chris Bosh. Does he play? If he plays, can he give 60-70 percent of his average performance? They need him to at least be a presence, at least pull a Willis Reed by occupying the other team's frontcourt despite an injury. KG has historically owned Bosh, but if he can simply be enough of an offensive threat to deflect attention from Wade and James, they can take care of the rest.

Miami is the superior basketball team, and if both teams were fully healthy, it'd be an easy call. The Bosh injury plays, however. After watching him cry last year following the NBA Finals loss, one must believe he'll fight through pain and try to help his team. Two-and-a-half solid games from him is really all Miami needs.

Pick: Heat in 6

WCF Preview: Thunder vs. Spurs

When Kevin Durant was asked if he could envision his young Thunder team following a similar life arc as the San Antonio Spurs- perennial rulers of the NBA for the past 15 years- he said that yes, that's the team's desired path.

They've got everything in place.  Durant is their quiet, no glitz-all guile superstar, their Tim Duncan. Both teams have rabid fans in relatively small markets.  Most importantly, they share a cultural structure that molds players into whatever is needed- to hell with one's ego.

The Spurs hid Sam Presti for a while, but now that he's out, he might have created a team that can take out the Spurs this year and reproduce what they've done over the last decade plus.

Tim Duncan and Kevin Durant.

San Antonio Spurs (1) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (2)


The Spurs are playing the perfect brand of basketball this postseason.  Swing passes lead to the open man getting a high-percentage look on nearly every play; it makes sense then that the Spurs are shooting 54.8% eFG, including nearly 43 percent from 3-point range.

But that was against mediocre defensive teams with poor closeout defenders.  The Thunder understand that a defense's answers for swing passes are closeouts that see five play as one, each defender covering for his teammate. OKC's youth breeds mistakes, but their incredible length helps.

The defensive trio of Durant, Russell Westbrook, and Thabo Sefolosha force the opposition to think quickly.  The Lakers had a decent size advantage against the Thunder, but OKC combatted L.A.'s physicality by being physical themselves and collapsing on Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol with lengthy double teams.  The Thunder rotate quickly without getting burned.  It is this interaction with San Antonio's controlled chaos on offense that looks like a thrilling matchup.

Tony Parker will work his way into the paint against Westbrook, and the usual chain reaction will ensue.  But unlike the Jazz and Clippers, the Thunder possess the perimeter quickness to slow down the 3-point shooting and secondary slashes of the Spurs.  Sefolosha vs. Manu Ginobili is a major matchup to watch.

Kendrick Perkins can contain Duncan in the post, but what about on the perimeter where Duncan spends a lot of time?  OKC may find it appealing to place Serge Ibaka on TD and simply treat him like Bynum when he posts.  Ibaka can switch and recover better than Perkins can, a useful trait against a springy Duncan.

Either way, The Big Fundamental is a matchup problem.  With him and Parker leading the way, the Spurs should have a strong offensive series, though it's doubtful they annihilate their opposition with their shooting as they have in previous rounds.

What will determine this series is how San Antonio defends OKC.  Will they cause enough turnovers and misses to generate their own fast-break opportunities? How do they match up against Westbrook, Durant, and James Harden?

If Westbrook continues to take care of the ball like he has throughout the playoffs, it's over.  The Spurs are below average at causing turnovers, and Tony Parker isn't good enough defensively to pressure RW.  If it's the case that Danny Green or Kawhi Leonard is put on Westbrook, Parker becomes what Steve Blake and Jason Terry were: mince meat for Harden. Green needs to be put on Durant anyway; KD is surging after torching Metta World Peace for 26 points per game on over 51 percent shooting.

Westbrook's poised play, Durant's consistent production, and Harden's matchup distortion will shock the Spurs in game one. Sweet chin music- hit them right in the mouth. The Thunder will roll into the NBA Finals from there, possibly with the torch in hand.


Pick: Thunder in 6 (Thunder take Game 1 as well)

The Trailblazing 2012 Spurs

The '12 Spurs push basketball purists into a mania. Amidst LeBron James/Dwyane Wade and Kevin Durant/Russell Westbrook-led isolation-heavy teams, the Spurs understand the value of spacing and swing passes better than the rest. Team play at its best.

We've seen this type of attack before; the accompanying mania reveals itself all too well.

TNT knew what they were doing when they put these two together.

It was called Blazermania in 1977. In his one healthy prime season, Bill Walton was an all-timer when it came to helping teammates and stymying the opposition's game plan. The Blazers were quick to the attack, and it started with Walton's outlet passing. He didn't so much pass it to wing players like Lionel Hollins and Bob Gross as he did magically adjust each carom's momentum with his fingertips. It looked like he snapped at the ball and it landed in a wing player's hands, initiating a fast break.

In the half court, Blazermania was more evident. Without a 3-point line, the Blazers gained spacing by inverting their offense- Walton and Mo Lucas worked from the mid-post and high-post areas and either found cutters or set screens. The beautiful half-court offense picked defenses apart. These defenses were befuddled because they could not focus on a concentrated point of attack- i.e., a superstar scorer.

Thirty-five years later, the same brand of basketball is being played in San Antonio. The newly lithe Tim Duncan plays offense similarly to the fiery Walton, flicking outlet passes, knocking down jump shots, cutting to the basket to keep defenses honest, and providing necessary post scoring. Duncan has never been more effective from the perimeter. Even their raw stats are similar: Duncan averaged nearly 20 points and three assists per 36 minutes in the regular season on 49 percent shooting; Walton averaged nearly 19 points and four assists per 36 minutes in 1977 on 53 percent shooting.

Boris Diaw is a clear staircase below an underrated all-time great like Lucas, but like Lucas, he provides excellent passing and the ability to spread the floor. Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard score off-ball like Gross and Hollins. The Blazers lacked individual creators like Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, but Portland did have solid depth: six players averaged at least 10.9 points per game for the Blazers during the '77 playoffs. Portland head coach Dr. Jack Ramsay and Gregg Popovich are two of the best ever.

The major differences in the teams are that the Spurs get to use a 3-point line and the Blazers were better defensively. The same principles of synergy and team play apply.

The 1977 Blazers defeated a poorly constructed Laker team led by the best individual in the league, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, then won the title by defeating the Philadelphia 76ers, a talented group of individuals who were less than the sum of their parts. Looking at the teams left standing in San Antonio's way, there is a chance the Spurs repeat the narrative exactly.

Call it Alamomania.